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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 87 - Kotoni Staggs is now a half so he'll move a few feet in.

    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:28 am

    wolfking wrote:How annoying is it that they don't run NRL fantasy finals anymore. Evil or Very Mad

    Stay tuned
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:39 am

    Finished up the first lot of planning for 2021 if anyone is interested in reading. Will probably be a long way off from my starting squad

    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1477-ms-s-2021-planning
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:46 am

    Following on from MS this is watchlist of underpriced players + captaincy candidates. Using MN of 14528 and 3% discount for each game under 10 for 2020

    It was in team order originally, but I missed a load of players initially so it's a bit all over the place.

    Edit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T9FgBdM1E2VDyl2IuPiMQ_r1kRcoue_LjeAee7qFdKs/edit?usp=sharing

    New link able to edit


    Last edited by Camo123 on Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:09 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by wolfking Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:55 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    Stay tuned

     NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 87 - Kotoni Staggs is now a half so he'll move a few feet in. - Page 39 37N
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:03 am

    Camo123 wrote:Following on from MS this is watchlist of underpriced players + captaincy candidates. Using MN of 14528 and 3% discount for each game under 10 for 2020

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T9FgBdM1E2VDyl2IuPiMQ_r1kRcoue_LjeAee7qFdKs/edit#gid=101873551

    It was in team order originally, but I missed a load of players initially so it's a bit all over the place.

    FYI this is set to private so access has to be requested
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    Post by Camo123 Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:10 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    FYI this is set to private so access has to be requested

    Fixed it so anyone with link can edit and should be able to download
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    Post by FaringdonSwirl Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:40 am

    Camo123 wrote:Following on from MS this is watchlist of underpriced players + captaincy candidates. Using MN of 14528 and 3% discount for each game under 10 for 2020

    It was in team order originally, but I missed a load of players initially so it's a bit all over the place.

    Edit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T9FgBdM1E2VDyl2IuPiMQ_r1kRcoue_LjeAee7qFdKs/edit?usp=sharing

    New link able to edit

    Great info, thanks mate. Wish I could upvote this more than once!


    Same goes for @multiple.scoregasms and your musings
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    Post by my tv broke Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:43 am

    I've pulled down the overall rankings for the top 50,000 teams so we have a reference for league creations/etc next year (will run script again after lockout is over I guess, may be some late adjustments).

    I'll put the list up on footystatistics.com when I get a chance so its easy to find/reference.
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:54 am

    What a shit year
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:55 am

    These waters will be extremely quiet from now until January/February
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    Post by my tv broke Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:24 am

    Lockout is over and you're able to trade/change captains for round 21 bounce bounce bounce
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    Post by wolfking Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:27 am

    my tv broke wrote:Lockout is over and you're able to trade/change captains for round 21 bounce bounce bounce

    Shit, I have 21 players on a bye. Really fucked up my bye planning strategy this year!!

    Finished on rank 163. Very happy with that!!
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    Post by Empyreal Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:48 am

    Lockout dropped me 4 more rankings 

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    Post by StormTrooper96 Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:57 am

    Massive fall from grace this last few weeks. Was popping in and around the 70-110 mark for much of the second half of the year. Could quite find enough consistency through my players and then ended the year with a few injuries to finish up on 257. Definitely my greatest finish ever which is a positive. Also gives me a new level to try and beat each year now. Always learning new strategies and tricks throughout the year to bring into next year.
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    Post by mrbrownstone Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:58 am

    Gained an extra 15 places in that last lockout lift. 1253 overall which is disappointing as I finally cracked the top 1,000 last week, but still not bad for my second season (and first season where I didn't just throw a squad together on the Thursday of the opening game).

    Biggest lessons are:

    1) Don't overthink matchups and just captain your highest average - twice I took it off McInness in the last month, and those weeks he scored 90 & 83, compared to my captains scoring 45 and 55.

    2) Don't assume 3rd tier players have any job security: Randall, Hopoate, Paix, Fui all burned me with this logic.

    3) Don't look for PODs too early. Started the year with Ese'ese and traded him to Hughes in round 2. Both poor options in hindsight.

    4) Don't underestimate attacking weapons/players with high ceilings - missed out on players like Best, Crichton because I thought they were just one off scores.

    5) Points over money. Too often I left cash in the bank for planned upgrades that never eventuated. Trading Leilua to Young the most egregious example.

    6) Buy Cleary. Quite simple, I never owned him all year and it cost me.

    7) Don't miss out on good buys because you don't rate them in real life. Missed Mann at the start of the year for this reason. Has turned around my opinion since obviously.

    Will make most of these mistakes again next year of course, when Ponga plays an undermanned Bulldogs side in the sun in round 1, and the Tigers fourth-string lock is guaranteed 60 minutes every week.

    Looking forward to figuring out byes & bye planning next year, as I haven't really gotten my head around that yet.
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    Post by FaringdonSwirl Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:03 am

    my tv broke wrote:Lockout is over and you're able to trade/change captains for round 21 bounce bounce bounce

    Am I doing it right?

     NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 87 - Kotoni Staggs is now a half so he'll move a few feet in. - Page 39 Captur10
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    Post by wolfking Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:20 am

    My 163 was my best ranking too after playing for a few years now. The biggest things I did differently and learned this season were;

    1) Be agressive. For years, I've played with caution. Saving trades early, being hesitant, giving players multiple chances etc. I was never an agressive fantasy player. This year I changed that and went pretty hard. I tapered off at the last six weeks though. Hesitation crept back into my game. I may have finished higher if I played as hard as I did early on.

    2) Chop players when they don't pass the eye test. I've always given players too many chances. I use to think they would come good. Nine times out of ten, they don't. This year, Knight, Williams, those sorts of players I chopped early. People have great arguments, but I took more note this year in watching the players closely and then after week one, would ask myself if I could see them becoming fantasy relevant. If my gut says no, it's trade time.

    3) Go with your gut. I was always very persuasive and use to go with the masses on things, but this year I made more of an effort of backing myself more. As I said earlier, late in the year I swayed slightly. For example, Randall vs Starling. Randall was the hot pick, but my gut was saying Starling would be the better option, I went with Randall and was kicking myself since. A couple of late season calls of not going with my gut hurt. Also going with my gut in starting with Nofo worked well. Again, I should have went with my gut in trading him late in the season, but he finished with a 49 average, so that's a big win.

    4) Get the players that score points. POD's is a tactic I don't think works that well. You need all the players that score points. Got McInnes nice and early, same with Ted. Missed Ponga until the last two weeks which was a flop but you can't get them all either. Nathan Brown however was a great POD the last six weeks though. He again was more a gut call. Luckily he finished the year in gun form. People getting put off him potentially getting suspended was a big attraction which leads to my next point.

    5) Don't worry about what MIGHT happen. Restings, suspensions, injuries, don't worry what might happen. I've done that in the past and it fails. Nathan Brown is a fine example of this. Some have merit, like Turbo, but all in all I think too much weight gets put into things like this.
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    Post by Guest Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:06 am

    Great summary Wolfy. It's great to see both Chewie & yourself carving up this year & developing into very good fantasy players.
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:11 am

    wolfking wrote:My 163 was my best ranking too after playing for a few years now.  The biggest things I did differently and learned this season were;

    1) Be agressive.  For years, I've played with caution.  Saving trades early, being hesitant, giving players multiple chances etc.  I was never an agressive fantasy player.  This year I changed that and went pretty hard.  I tapered off at the last six weeks though.  Hesitation crept back into my game.  I may have finished higher if I played as hard as I did early on.

    2) Chop players when they don't pass the eye test.  I've always given players too many chances.  I use to think they would come good.  Nine times out of ten, they don't.  This year, Knight, Williams, those sorts of players I chopped early.  People have great arguments, but I took more note this year in watching the players closely and then after week one, would ask myself if I could see them becoming fantasy relevant.  If my gut says no, it's trade time.

    3) Go with your gut.  I was always very persuasive and use to go with the masses on things, but this year I made more of an effort of backing myself more.  As I said earlier, late in the year I swayed slightly.  For example, Randall vs Starling.  Randall was the hot pick, but my gut was saying Starling would be the better option, I went with Randall and was kicking myself since.  A couple of late season calls of not going with my gut hurt.  Also going with my gut in starting with Nofo worked well.  Again, I should have went with my gut in trading him late in the season, but he finished with a 49 average, so that's a big win.

    4) Get the players that score points.  POD's is a tactic I don't think works that well.  You need all the players that score points.  Got McInnes nice and early, same with Ted.  Missed Ponga until the last two weeks which was a flop but you can't get them all either.  Nathan Brown however was a great POD the last six weeks though.  He again was more a gut call.  Luckily he finished the year in gun form.  People getting put off him potentially getting suspended was a big attraction which leads to my next point.

    5) Don't worry about what MIGHT happen.  Restings, suspensions, injuries, don't worry what might happen.  I've done that in the past and it fails.  Nathan Brown is a fine example of this.  Some have merit, like Turbo, but all in all I think too much weight gets put into things like this.

    I spent this year with a lot of similar actions. I went with my gut a lot on a few calls. (i.e trading Niu to Cotric in R14 (averaged 40 since then). It helped out in many ways as he was able to fill in at WFB at times others had to pick guys like HTF/Herbie). Being aggressive also helped, but then it also didnt. Being aggressive on played like Williams, Musgrove, Stimson, Brailey all worked out in my favour but then trading guys like Mann and Luai too early hurt as they kicked on in the back half of the year.

    2 big regrets for the year were missing out on Fogarty and trading Randall instead of Starling as my gut told me he would overtake Havili easily, but the starting Hooker who scored 70+ in his first game obviously came out on top.
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:11 am

    White Lightning wrote:Great summary Wolfy. It's great to see both Chewie & yourself carving up this year & developing into very good fantasy players.

    AHEM!

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