NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 4 - Praying that nobody gets hurt

3 ways to look at it....

Ranked by likely underpriced (assuming all starting with decent roles):
Watson
Blore
Davey
Liddle
Laurie
Ah Mau
Turbo
JBrailey
Murdoch-Masila
Lodge (assuming bench here, at least from round 4)
Niu
Hetherington (assuming bench from round 5)

Ranked by chance of injury / dropped / lesser role:
Blore
Davey
Ah Mau
Watson
Niu
Murdoch-Masila
Laurie
JBrailey
Turbo
Liddle
Lodge (assuming bench here, at least from round 4)
Hetherington (assuming bench from round 5)

Combined ranking for all of the above factors:
Watson
Blore
Davey
Ah Mau
Murdoch-Masila
Liddle
Laurie
Niu
JBrailey
Turbo
Lodge (assuming bench here, at least from round 4)
Hetherington (assuming bench from round 5)

mattnz wrote:3 ways to look at it....

Ranked by likely underpriced (assuming all starting with decent roles):
Watson
Blore
Davey
Liddle
Laurie
Ah Mau
Turbo
JBrailey
Murdoch-Masila
Lodge (assuming bench here, at least from round 4)
Niu
Hetherington (assuming bench from round 5)

Ranked by chance of injury / dropped / lesser role:
Blore
Davey
Ah Mau
Watson
Niu
Murdoch-Masila
Laurie
JBrailey
Turbo
Liddle
Lodge (assuming bench here, at least from round 4)
Hetherington (assuming bench from round 5)

Combined ranking for all of the above factors:
Watson
Blore
Davey
Ah Mau
Murdoch-Masila
Liddle
Laurie
Niu
JBrailey
Turbo
Lodge (assuming bench here, at least from round 4)
Hetherington (assuming bench from round 5)

Nice. I got the impression from viewing people's teams that JBrailey was a high confidence pick. What are your concerns with him?

Holy Moly wrote:

Nice. I got the impression from viewing people's teams that JBrailey was a high confidence pick. What are your concerns with him?

1. Coming off an ACL, normally takes time to get back to your best and decent chance of re-injury

2. Underpriced by 13 on his 44 average with > 70 minutes at Hooker, which on that list isn't that impressive, all of Watson, Blore, Davey, Ah Mau, Liddle and Laurie should outperform that differential

3. If he hits the 44 average target, it isn't close to being a keeper in his position, so will need to be upgraded, either when maxed out, or after round 13

4. Most teams have 4ish hookers, so he doesn't add any positional coverage

5. Is in a position where much better options exist. 2 that are cheaper and likely to score at least as well in Watson and Liddle and some that are more expensive but have the potential to be keepers, depending on their roles.

Also note that Turbo is in almost everyone's team, but is only 8 points underpriced on his average in 80 minute games last season (places him very low on this list on its own), and is coming back from 2 major injuries, one of which is recurring.

Both aren't in my team.

mattnz wrote:3 ways to look at it....

Ranked by likely underpriced (assuming all starting)

I like the effort and the degree of sharing. Thanks!

But before trials and TLT perhaps your efforts would be better spent elsewhere? Knitting sticks for homeless guillemots, ranking insulin by flavour, crowdfunding high-fives, trying to have a social life in Melbourne.... there’s lots of ways to fritter away the hours!

mattnz wrote:

1. Coming off an ACL, normally takes time to get back to your best and decent chance of re-injury

2. Underpriced by 13 on his 44 average with > 70 minutes at Hooker, which on that list isn't that impressive, all of Watson, Blore, Davey, Ah Mau, Liddle and Laurie should outperform that differential

3. If he hits the 44 average target, it isn't close to being a keeper in his position, so will need to be upgraded, either when maxed out, or after round 13

4. Most teams have 4ish hookers, so he doesn't add any positional coverage

5. Is in a position where much better options exist. 2 that are cheaper and likely to score at least as well in Watson and Liddle and some that are more expensive but have the potential to be keepers, depending on their roles.

Also note that Turbo is in almost everyone's team, but is only 8 points underpriced on his average in 80 minute games last season (places him very low on this list on its own), and is coming back from 2 major injuries, one of which is recurring.

Both aren't in my team.

I like your line of thinking I'm still running with Turbo as a defensive move, since so many people have him, though part of me wants to drop him for Kelly and move Hopoate to WFB.

On WFBs, what are your thoughts on Papy? I'm definitely biased towards him as a Storm fan, but if he's getting the goalkicking, I think he's definitely worth it.

Hey lads. Anyone seen any football from Laurie. Is he worth a punt for a scoring fullback. Looking and him as a replacement for Val.

mattnz wrote:

1. Coming off an ACL, normally takes time to get back to your best and decent chance of re-injury

2. Underpriced by 13 on his 44 average with > 70 minutes at Hooker, which on that list isn't that impressive, all of Watson, Blore, Davey, Ah Mau, Liddle and Laurie should outperform that differential

3. If he hits the 44 average target, it isn't close to being a keeper in his position, so will need to be upgraded, either when maxed out, or after round 13

4. Most teams have 4ish hookers, so he doesn't add any positional coverage

5. Is in a position where much better options exist. 2 that are cheaper and likely to score at least as well in Watson and Liddle and some that are more expensive but have the potential to be keepers, depending on their roles.

Also note that Turbo is in almost everyone's team, but is only 8 points underpriced on his average in 80 minute games last season (places him very low on this list on its own), and is coming back from 2 major injuries, one of which is recurring.

Both aren't in my team.

That's a very comprehensive explanation. Thanks for taking the time.

Also with Momorovski, who exactly is he potentially coming in for with the Panthers?

Bethany_B wrote:

I like your line of thinking I'm still running with Turbo as a defensive move, since so many people have him, though part of me wants to drop him for Kelly and move Hopoate to WFB.

On WFBs, what are your thoughts on Papy? I'm definitely biased towards him as a Storm fan, but if he's getting the goalkicking, I think he's definitely worth it.

I am biased the other way, pissed me off last season, so on my never again list.

mattnz wrote:
I am biased the other way, pissed me off last season, so on my never again list.

Did you sell him before he started scoring well? I held him for the full season and was happy with him, the addition of the goalkicking would make him even better.

Rounds 1-6 he averaged 37, rounds 7-20 he averaged 55, and I see no reason why he would regress back down to the early 2020 scores.

That said I get it not liking owning him, I had the same experience with Dedwards in 2019 and I'm seriously considering running both him and Papy because Dedwards has a great floor and solid ceiling.

Finger Puppet Mafia wrote:Also with Momorovski, who exactly is he potentially coming in for with the Panthers?

I’d assume Naden - Chricton had a banger year and didn’t field too many nose candy fines. Capewell a better 2rf than CTR. May possible, but feels like an interchange player. RJennings possible, but not good enough.

Hypothetical. If he was playing Round One would anybody be considering Doueihi for third WFB? Should score well as goalkicking half. First bye. Defensively sound. Brooks not going to be as dominant with the KMs as people think.

Normally wouldn't consider a red dot in round one but it's suspension not injury, so it's guaranteed only one week out. Weirdly he's not DPP yet but that would be another plus.

rhinoceroo wrote:Hypothetical. If he was playing Round One would anybody be considering Doueihi for third WFB? Should score well as goalkicking half. First bye. Defensively sound. Brooks not going to be as dominant with the KMs as people think.

Normally wouldn't consider a red dot in round one but it's suspension not injury, so it's guaranteed only one week out. Weirdly he's not DPP yet but that would be another plus.

Unfortunately he wouldn't get DPP for several rounds, after missing round 1.

At 40 points he is awkwardly priced, you are relying on him hitting Cody Walker level performance for 48 points or more to be worthwhile.

I'd just like to add Jayden Brailey has no games in hi shistory under the new 6-again rule. That probably adds another 2-3 points to his average.

And of all the players Holy Moly asked about, he ranks 2nd in job security (when fit) after Tommy Turbo. A whole bunch of guys on that list are no guarantee to start, but Brailey will 100% be Knights starting hooker round 1 if he is fit to play.

He is one of a few guys I have no intention of dropping from my draft teams

mattnz wrote:

1. Coming off an ACL, normally takes time to get back to your best and decent chance of re-injury

2. Underpriced by 13 on his 44 average with > 70 minutes at Hooker, which on that list isn't that impressive, all of Watson, Blore, Davey, Ah Mau, Liddle and Laurie should outperform that differential

3. If he hits the 44 average target, it isn't close to being a keeper in his position, so will need to be upgraded, either when maxed out, or after round 13

4. Most teams have 4ish hookers, so he doesn't add any positional coverage

5. Is in a position where much better options exist. 2 that are cheaper and likely to score at least as well in Watson and Liddle and some that are more expensive but have the potential to be keepers, depending on their roles.

Also note that Turbo is in almost everyone's team, but is only 8 points underpriced on his average in 80 minute games last season (places him very low on this list on its own), and is coming back from 2 major injuries, one of which is recurring.

Both aren't in my team.

I would have thought that point 3 is one of the main aspects of fantasy. Especially in point 2 where you mention he's 13 points underpriced.

Milchcow wrote:I'd just like to add Jayden Brailey has no games in hi shistory under the new 6-again rule. That probably adds another 2-3 points to his average.

And of all the players Holy Moly asked about, he ranks 2nd in job security (when fit) after Tommy Turbo. A whole bunch of guys on that list are no guarantee to start, but Brailey will 100% be Knights starting hooker round 1 if he is fit to play.

He is one of a few guys I have no intention of dropping from my draft teams

Exactly, it's one less thing you're sweating over each week worrying if he retains his spot.

Yeah, I'm keeping JBrailey too unless some negative news comes up. It's also hard too leave out Turbo. He's not super cheap and has had hammy issues, but he is one of my favourite players and there''s some decent upside if he stays fit.

manlybeaver wrote:This is my final draft before tlt, has 6 guns what's nice

Cook
Critchon LAM watson
Matterson fifita
Clearly munster
Hoppa walker
Turbo nui laurie

Brailey lam davey liddle

Blore averillo simonson feagai

James Hooper said on MMM today that Mbye will be Rd 1 FB. Beware, if Hoops said it then it must be true.

Not having JBrailey or TTurbo to start is being contrary for the sake of it. Amass points and cash, don't worry that other people are amassing points and cash with the same players.

J. Brailey was one of the first guys I picked. A no brainer for me.