NRL Fantasy 2021 part 6 - Return of the Party

https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/02/25/pack-mentality-croker-hooking-into-new-role-with-gusto/

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Milchcow wrote:


Why does Hoy give you a better look at other WFBs than picking Moylan, Niu or any other player?

I expect him to score higher... and I like his name

ytsb wrote:

Doesn't matter. Their season average is what matters. There is a lot of uncertainty around the safety of some cheapies in their positions as well as their scoring potential, making them risky. Starting with two gun wfbs and one of these cheapies insures against this (see the centre fiasco last year, what happens when moylan snaps his hamstring off the bone and laurie gets dropped?). The positions of gun WFBs like pappy, RTS, and teddy are solid as a rock and Teddy and RTS particularly are not injury prone. There is more value in going cheaper in edge and mid this year than previous years in my opinion (and to be seen of course) which plays into my current decision as well.

I understand your plan and you are an experienced player with a good track record, but for less experienced players piling on to this tactic they should understand that the aim at the start of the year is to make money while making sure you score steadily. The goal is to build bank and add to your team of keepers as you progress

WFB & CTRs are not, as a rule, reliable scorers (RFS scored > 35 seven times last year and Papy was similar with 6) and along with that their prices fluctuate wildly. This means cheaper players can go on a run or snag a monster score, make a couple of hundred $k and if you are lucky you get to ditch them at their peak and add to your keepers/bank. Having keepers in those positions limits your ability to do this unless you want to stack your bench with dodgy WFBs.

Cheap forwards who make the move up in value tend to make money more steadily by scoring 35-50 for 7-8 weeks in a row.

Gun forwards, halves and hookers get you 50-60 most weeks which provides a base for your early season scores.

I'm not saying you shouldn't have any guns (ideally you should have at least 1 potential keeper in each position) but the carnage at centre last year showed that it's really hard to pick them regardless. Lomax, who everyone was off after his first game at FB, proved to be the best long term option.

I'm sure TLT will throw up some options to help us with team balance.

robelgordo wrote:

In the last 15 minutes I've added Ford, Brooks and Robson to my team. I'm looking to field 31.

Rabbits21 wrote:
You’ve got Moylan?? Gulp....... I am thinking of it but not sure I can do it.

How many times can you give a comment a thumbs up! I’m stunned people have opted for Moylan, especially at 5/8.

Aardvark wrote:

I understand your plan and you are an experienced player with a good track record, but for less experienced players piling on to this tactic they should understand that the aim at the start of the year is to make money while making sure you score steadily. The goal is to build bank and add to your team of keepers as you progress

WFB & CTRs are not, as a rule, reliable scorers (RFS scored > 35 seven times last year and Papy was similar with 6) and along with that their prices fluctuate wildly. This means cheaper players can go on a run or snag a monster score, make a couple of hundred $k and if you are lucky you get to ditch them at their peak and add to your keepers/bank. Having keepers in those positions limits your ability to do this unless you want to stack your bench with dodgy WFBs.

Cheap forwards who make the move up in value tend to make money more steadily by scoring 35-50 for 7-8 weeks in a row.

Gun forwards, halves and hookers get you 50-60 most weeks which provides a base for your early season scores.

I'm not saying you shouldn't have any guns (ideally you should have at least 1 potential keeper in each position) but the carnage at centre last year showed that it's really hard to pick them regardless. Lomax, who everyone was off after his first game at FB, proved to be the best long term option.

I'm sure TLT will throw up some options to help us with team balance.

Yeah 100%. It's a big trade off for sure and a strategy that by no means I want to paint myself into a corner with. I guess currently I'd like to be able to omit someone like Laurie and keep Simonsson and Niu in my 18-21 as my Ctr/wfb cover and benefit from their potential cash generation but not their scoring. Cash generation for potential scoring is the endless trade off in this game (i.e. perceived "underpriced gun" vs. out and out gun for slightly more). Closer to TLT it's likely I will make decisions in the ctr/wfb position based on each player's early draw. Does anyone else remember Verbal Kint's clutch POD Cotric?

Ford's missed tackle stats don't look great there. Averaged 4 in NSW cup from those stats, which has translated to 4.4 in 50+ minute games in the NRL.

I know a lot of people were put off Capewell last year for his missed tackles - for comparison he averages 3.8 per game in 50+ minute second row games.

Milchcow wrote:

I dont trust Ford's scoring on the edge.
if he gets starting lock I might reconsider

Absolutely! My thoughts exactly.

mrbrownstone wrote:Ford's missed tackle stats don't look great there. Averaged 4 in NSW cup from those stats, which has translated to 4.4 in 50+ minute games in the NRL.

I know a lot of people were put off Capewell last year for his missed tackles - for comparison he averages 3.8 per game in 50+ minute second row games.

Personally I don't care how my players scores their points as long as it's sustainable and they score them. Scoring 50 per game with 5 missed tackles while priced at 30 is still a great fantasy option for mine.

In the case of Ford it can become a bit dicey if he is playing lower minutes. Could potentially see 30-40 minutes in the middle, rack up 7 missed tackles and stall all cash generation

Milchcow wrote:

He's a guy who can average ~50 at halfback who is cheap due to some games from the bench last year.

Bit like CHT whois underpriced due to games earlier in the season paired with Blake Green or playing off the bench. He can score higher now thathe is with Nikorime

Probably both Brooks and CHT don't have enough value to make them worthwhile. So if I lose faith in Munster might just run Cleary/Lam and rely on Moylan/Croker/Averillo for cover

I can run Averillo as cover as well but then need to find another centre....

For those who have Reimis have you just picked him as you think he’s gonna be scoring more tries?

Wouldn’t Simonsson at 246k be a better option?

mrbrownstone wrote:Ford's missed tackle stats don't look great there. Averaged 4 in NSW cup from those stats, which has translated to 4.4 in 50+ minute games in the NRL.

I know a lot of people were put off Capewell last year for his missed tackles - for comparison he averages 3.8 per game in 50+ minute second row games.

If he averages 60 points he can miss 12 tackles a game for all I care.

My concern is more the fact that he has a season in first grade under his belt now, and his first grade scoring is below what his NSW Cup stats were.

Rabbits21 wrote:For those who have Reimis have you just picked him as you think he’s gonna be scoring more tries?

Wouldn’t Simonsson at 246k be a better option?

Simonsson's career average as a winger is 27 points (28 if you exclude injury). He's not really good enough to play in your 13 IMO

robelgordo wrote:

In the last 15 minutes I've added Ford, Brooks and Robson to my team. I'm looking to field 31.

Add Reimis and L. Croker

Milchcow wrote:

Simonsson's career average as a winger is 27 points (28 if you exclude injury). He's not really good enough to play in your 13 IMO

Well Reimis is worse a 26 career avg on wing and priced at 22. Simonsson is priced at 18.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Well Reimis is worse a 26 career avg on wing and priced at 22. Simonsson is priced at 18.

Which is why I currently have Moylan and neither of those 2.

He isn't ideal either, but I think he can at least get over 30.

Haven't really found a back 3 I am comfortable with since Trbo and Laurie went out.
Maybe Laurie will still turn out to be useful, but for now I am assuming you can't start the season with him.

Might stump up the cash for Isaako, or may bite the bullet on Hoy and hope Ponga stays away for a while

Noone really inspires confidence, but have a couple of weeks to make a decision.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/02/25/pack-mentality-croker-hooking-into-new-role-with-gusto/

Get in!

Some things never change, death taxes and a pre season article hyping up L. Croker...... TRAP TRAP TRAP DUD

Milchcow wrote:

Which is why I currently have Moylan and neither of those 2.

He isn't ideal either, but I think he can at least get over 30.

Haven't really found a back 3 I am comfortable with since Trbo and Laurie went out.
Maybe Laurie will still turn out to be useful, but for now I am assuming you can't start the season with him.

Might stump up the cash for Isaako, or may bite the bullet on Hoy and hope Ponga stays away for a while

Noone really inspires confidence, but have a couple of weeks to make a decision.

I think Moylan averages around 32-33 at 5/8 so that’s 8-9 points above his price.

Simonsson career avg of 27 is 9 points above his price so can make the same amount of money as Moylan.

I read an article saying that Simonsson has bulked up by 5-6kg, this could be better for making tackle busts.

Raiders should be good this year and Simonsson is now a year older and stronger so I can see him getting that avg up to around 30 which is 12 points above his price which is enough to justify picking him to start with.

Reimis has had an avg of 0.6 tries a game at the Dogs and Vunivalu has had an avg of 0.8 tries a game so actually not much difference.

So if you’re picking Reimis you’re having him as you think he’s gonna go on an early try scoring run otherwise it’s not worth it!

Rabbits21 wrote:
Some things never change, death taxes and a pre season article hyping up L. Croker...... TRAP TRAP TRAP DUD

I say we give the boy a chance. Starting hooker this year not non kicking five eight...if he scores 35-40 a week for a couple of months he could net you a tidy sum.

I wont be jumping on straight away but I'll be keeping an eye on him.