NRL Fantasy 2021 part 6 - Return of the Party

Camo123 wrote:

Is it relevant though which coach he was under??

Absolutely it is, The Warriors were a team of two halves last year

The Center position is the hardest to decide on that's why I'm deciding to go cheap. Trying to decide on 2 of the below. Will keep Hoppa at WFB for back up. Any thoughts? and anyone I am missing?

I have based average on where they will most likely play this season.

Jack Bird: $374k / Average in centres - 34.9 / 21.03% Ownership
James Roberts: $336k / Average in centres - 38.8k / 19.98% Ownership
Patrick Herbet: $343k / Average in the centres - 25.8 (possibly an extra 6 - 8 points with goal kicking) / 2.37% Ownership
Jake Averillo: $302k / Average at 5/8 (not a lot of games) -37 / 26.59% Ownership

Welshy wrote:Best perceived value for anyone priced at $700k plus but not including DFifi?

Macca?

Not a lot of players I'm interested at that price except DFifita.

I'm thinking Macca but not sure I can trust him staying fit. I think he is at that stage of his career where he will start to break down a lot.

Tookey wrote:

Not a lot of players I'm interested at that price except DFifita.

I'm thinking Macca but not sure I can trust him staying fit. I think he is at that stage of his career where he will start to break down a lot.

At least if that happens, he is a straight swap to Hunt

Okay here we go, first draft for the season. Any thoughts? Pretty happy with everyone except Hoy, just don’t know who else I can get. Obviously EMGs may change with TLT.

JBrailey
Kolomatagi Watson ACrichton
Riki DFifita
Munster Cleary (c)
Averillo Roberts
RTS Tedesco Hoy

Egan Liddle Lam Davey
Faamausili Hola Utoikamanu Niu

120k spare

I had an early night for once and woke to find nearly 10 pages had been added.
At first I assumed that there must've been some big NRL Fantasy related event that had happened.

I was quite shocked to discover it was largely down to a discussion of Matt's error-free fantasy existence, the beautiful and ongoing courtship between Random & MF, plus a new Rabbits draft team.

I will never go to bed early again!

rhinoceroo wrote:Imagine assuming the best coach ever would find a way to use his main attacking asset.

This is it, the first thing i thought early last year (as a league fan) was how the Storm will work it out and Paps will become even better/more involved/kill it for the Storm/be a smart fantasy pick. It was so obvious that he would come good, i cannot fathom @Mattnz not seeing this. So much so that it is just more proof he can't swallow a bad decision.

It takes away from your cred mate, it's a trait that affects everything else u say week in week out, that's why u get heckled constantly, because you can't 'own it'.

My Fantasy Results are poor , one must know his station in life .... I,m sh.t at this but hey what ya do.

Revraiser wrote:


This is it, the first thing i thought early last year (as a league fan) was how the Storm will work it out and Paps will become even better/more involved/kill it for the Strom/be a smart fantasy pick. It was so obvious that he would come good, i cannot fathom @Mattnz not seeing this. So much so that it is just more proof he can't swallow a bad decision.

It takes away from your cred mate, it's a trait that affects everything else u say week in week out, that's why u get heckled constantly, because you can't 'own it'.

Hoping that a coach sees the error of his ways because the way he is playing your player is keeping his fantasy scoring low is the dummest thing I have heard, and definitely not a valid strategy. With 5 scores of 40 or less including a 32 with a try and a high of a single 50 in the first 6 rounds, if the coach kept playing him as he was, he wasnt fantasy relevant. The fact that the coach totally changed the game plan after that doesnt change it being a valid decision at the time.

This discussion started because someone posted about video proof that confirmed exactly what I was saying about that change in Papy's role. Time to stop being a tosser about it.

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:

I’ve watched him play twice in person for work. He was very impressive at 16 playing against other 16 year olds. Half our game plan for beating souths was around getting numbers around him in defense and kicking to the wingers when kicking for territory

He looked like GI but had a decent size advantage. Will be interesting to see how he goes when his opponents are a similar size, speed, strength etc

Good insight!

This also supports why I can’t get excited about him for this year, and don’t think they should give him an age exemption.

It sounds like he’s as close to can’t miss as a 17 yo can be, but playing people his own size is a big jump. Playing people with years of training FT who are arguably fitter and stronger is a big jump. Playing people just drilled into defensive structures is a big jump.

I think if he spends a year training with the 1st team squad and playing a bit of managed NSW Cup before he gets a run it would be much better for his dev.

robelgordo wrote:

Good insight!

This also supports why I can’t get excited about him for this year, and don’t think they should give him an age exemption.

It sounds like he’s as close to can’t miss as a 17 yo can be, but playing people his own size is a big jump. Playing people with years of training FT who are arguably fitter and stronger is a big jump. Playing people just drilled into defensive structures is a big jump.

I think if he spends a year training with the 1st team squad and playing a bit of managed NSW Cup before he gets a run it would be much better for his dev.

Totally agree.

Nothing worse if he goes straight to the big time and dosent live up to the hype. Could make or break a young guy. If they have this much faith in him they need to give him time.

mattnz wrote:

Hoping that a coach sees the error of his ways because the way he is playing your player is keeping his fantasy scoring low is the dummest thing I have heard, and definitely not a valid strategy. With 5 scores of 40 or less including a 32 with a try and a high of a single 50 in the first 6 rounds, if the coach kept playing him as he was, he wasnt fantasy relevant. The fact that the coach totally changed the game plan after that doesnt change it being a valid decision at the time.

This discussion started because someone posted about video proof that confirmed exactly what I was saying about that change in Papy's role. Time to stop being a tosser about it.

Pretty sure Bellamy didn't finesse Melbourne's system to help Papenhuyzen's fantasy scoring. It's not "dumb" to think a spluttering Bellamy team are going to improve, and if the key element of that improvement is getting the fullback into space then, yes, that fullback's fantasy scores are going to improve too, - but the fantasy follows the actual sport, not the other way round. And anyone with a reading of the sport could see what Pap had the potential to do in a Storm team with a different break here or there.

Maybe the way to improve your rank is to think less about the last four fantasy numbers and more about rugby league. For all the luck and variance involved, a constant of the people who do well in this thing is they have a good understanding of the sport overlaid by an understanding of the "game".

mattnz wrote:

Hoping that a coach sees the error of his ways because the way he is playing your player is keeping his fantasy scoring low is the dummest thing I have heard, and definitely not a valid strategy. With 5 scores of 40 or less including a 32 with a try and a high of a single 50 in the first 6 rounds, if the coach kept playing him as he was, he wasnt fantasy relevant. The fact that the coach totally changed the game plan after that doesnt change it being a valid decision at the time.

This discussion started because someone posted about video proof that confirmed exactly what I was saying about that change in Papy's role. Time to stop being a tosser about it.

Oh man, You have read what i said and thats how you interpret it ? I refuse to believe you are this limited. Nothing i said is related to fantasy. Read the first line. It's the nuts and bolts of league and adapting. Coaches and players change tactics since day dot. Haven't picked that bit up yet ?

For you to not be able to see Paps would come good due to both coach and player changing it up is a pretty glaring miss.

Regardless of change of role, a coach changing tactics or the magic sponge turning a player into fantasy elite. Trading out a player who adds 13 points onto his average after trade out is the WRONG decision.

Tookey wrote:The Center position is the hardest to decide on that's why I'm deciding to go cheap. Trying to decide on 2 of the below. Will keep Hoppa at WFB for back up. Any thoughts? and anyone I am missing?

I have based average on where they will most likely play this season.

Jack Bird: $374k / Average in centres - 34.9 / 21.03% Ownership
James Roberts: $336k / Average in centres - 38.8k / 19.98% Ownership
Patrick Herbet: $343k / Average in the centres - 25.8 (possibly an extra 6 - 8 points with goal kicking) / 2.37% Ownership
Jake Averillo: $302k / Average at 5/8 (not a lot of games) -37 / 26.59% Ownership

A far out there one (as in quite the risk) is Curtis Scott. Was dogshit for us last year, but if you pick him I guess the assumption would be he had a rocky season based on the off field shit going on. I'm considering it...and biased.

Archer wrote:
A far out there one (as in quite the risk) is Curtis Scott. Was dogshit for us last year, but if you pick him I guess the assumption would be he had a rocky season based on the off field shit going on. I'm considering it...and biased.

How long is Croker out for? If Timoko (or whoever else plays there) outperforms Scott over a few rounds would he keep his place?

Archer wrote:
A far out there one (as in quite the risk) is Curtis Scott. Was dogshit for us last year, but if you pick him I guess the assumption would be he had a rocky season based on the off field shit going on. I'm considering it...and biased.

He could get up this season due to last years dramas. Possible POD to consider.

Scott hasn’t been same player since leaving Storm. Too much risk involved and plenty of players around his price

rhinoceroo wrote:

How long is Croker out for? If Timoko (or whoever else plays there) outperforms Scott over a few rounds would he keep his place?

Haven't kept up with it very well but I don't think he's expected to be out long. I guess there is a chance Scott loses his spot after being outperformed in that time but if that's the case you probably don't want him in your team anyway and it's a bit of a blessing.
I dunno, it's a fairly big gamble because watching him play last year it wasn't just bad fantasy scores, the footy itself was below par. The only reason I'm even considering it is we lost Cotric (which should mean someone has to do a bit more work early in the sets, could be Rapa or Scott maybe) and I can understand why the off field shit would have been distracting

Welshy wrote:Scott hasn’t been same player since leaving Storm. Too much risk involved and plenty of players around his price

Oooh, I smell an avatar bet coming on, who do you like more at the price point (I don't entirely disagree but you know me...)