NRL Fantasy 2021 - In my opinion, this is part 8

If the FOG is predicted 48-55 and BROOKS is predicted 45-48 doesn't this make Brooks a better buy @ $122k less for a points difference of 3-7 points ?

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Just looking at the point predictions. Let’s assume that they are close, then why would anyone choose Cook when Liddle, J Brailley, Watson, etc provide so much better value! Also, why would Laurie, playing 80 minutes at FB score 35 points? Or was that at 5/8?

Everyone here has Brailey* and Watson already who and are getting Cook on top of that. Liddle is at risk of both injury and getting dropped for Simpkin so his value is not as clear cut, but he'll be in a lot of teams too.

But the reason you would pick Cook (or any other keeper) over someone else is to save trades. Cook might not make much money, but he has a good chance of being the highest scoring hooker for total points, and can stay in your team for the entire season, provide a captaincy option whilst he does so, allowing you to use your trades more productively elsewhere. Playing origin is a minor spanner in the works especially if you already have Cleary and Tedesco but them's the breaks.


Do you think allocating 35 for Laurie is over or underestimating him?
Either way, any estimation of his points is just a guess as there is no real first grade data to base a decision on.


*mattnz is avoiding Brailey, because he wouldn't mattnz otherwise, but almost everyone else has him.

thelastdodo wrote:If the FOG is predicted 48-55 and BROOKS is predicted 45-48 doesn't this make Brooks a better buy @ $122k less for a points difference of 3-7 points ?

if you agree with those predictions, yes. People picking Fogarty are hoping for 60+ though.

(His average over the 2nd half of last season + goalkicking)

thelastdodo wrote:If the FOG is predicted 48-55 and BROOKS is predicted 45-48 doesn't this make Brooks a better buy @ $122k less for a points difference of 3-7 points ?

FOG just requires a continuation of form from the end of last season to hit 57 average, plus goal kicking would see him in the 60s. Will benefit massively from being paired with Fifita.
Brooks would require a reversal of form from last season to hit that mark.

Having second thoughts about Bird.

Just reviewed his career stats and they’re not as good as I’d recalled.  Mid 30s average at centre, so not huge upside from price of 28.   Been out of footy for a while.  Injury prone.

Honeysett wrote:

I'm going to start with Latrell because I want to see him do well, he was finding his groove at fullback at the end of the year and I want to see him prove people wrong. And I want to be on him when he does.

I’m with ya mate , should average low to mid 40,s , position is stable and at the end of the day not much chance of doing a hammy - I’m in !!!

mattnz wrote:
FOG just requires a continuation of form from the end of last season

kerrod holland says hello

Antipodean1 wrote:Current iteration, which will unlikely survive TLT.  

Turpin
Watson-Crichton-Tino
DFifi - Riki
Cleary - Luai
Roberts - Bird
Papy-Moylan-Niu

BSmith-JBray-Liddle-Welch

Gosiewski-Alvaro-Averillo-DYoung

$0 ITB.

I am still mulling Brooks for Luai, but Panthers might start the season red-hot, so I can look to trade down if Brooks goes well and Luai doesn't.

Going with my gut on Luai.

Running with Niu in the WFB would be a little yikes for me. Gosiewski and Alvaro don't have great prospects either although the former could get the starting spot. Think your team might need a rework come TLT.

Jumping Marlin wrote:Having second thoughts about Bird.

Just reviewed his career stats and they’re not as good as I’d recalled.  Mid 30s average at centre, so not huge upside from price of 28.   Been out of footy for a while.  Injury prone.

I could go either way on him. Right now he's in my team, at some point I hope they move him to 2nd row.

my tv broke wrote:

kerrod holland says hello

Kerrod Holland was different, his run came on the back of increased attacking stats once the Titans Bulldogs were out of finals contention, playing free flowing football in meaningless games. Nothing like the Titans 2020 season where they were out of finals contention and played free flowing football in meaningless games. No way this could happen to Holland Fogarty

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Just looking at the point predictions. Let’s assume that they are close, then why would anyone choose Cook when Liddle, J Brailley, Watson, etc provide so much better value! Also, why would Laurie, playing 80 minutes at FB score 35 points? Or was that at 5/8?

I think Watson will start slow. I dont expect him to average anywhere near 50-60 to start with coming back from a seriuos injury

I still prefer Paulo over Smith, Welch, NAS.

Need to learn from mistakes of the past.  Last year my “mids who might become near guns” all flopped and in hindsight it’s easy to think WTF was I thinking.  Eg JMK, Levi.

Players who have been in/out of my team with similar thinking this year include Brooks, Latrell and Milford. Two of these surviving today.  Am I making a JMK/Levi mistake again?

my tv broke wrote:

kerrod holland says hello

No point comparing best case scenario for one player and worst case for another, when their form last season is the other way around.

my tv broke wrote:

kerrod holland says hello

Jarome Luai averaged 58.7 across his last 6 regular season games.
That puts him 13.7 points undervalued ($183k).

All aboard...

Jumping Marlin wrote:Need to learn from mistakes of the past.  Last year my “mids who might become near guns” all flopped and in hindsight it’s easy to think WTF was I thinking.  Eg JMK, Levi.

Players who have been in/out of my team with similar thinking this year include Brooks, Latrell and Milford. Two of these surviving today.  Am I making a JMK/Levi mistake again?

I expect so, can't see any of them stepping up to keeper level this season, even if we see a 10 point increase. Better to invest in the next tier up that can make the jump. Same as JMK and Levi last season.
Suggest changing the thinking from "mids who might become near guns", to "near guns that are likely to become guns".

Honey Badger wrote:I still prefer Paulo over Smith, Welch, NAS.

Paulo should easily score more points between start of season and origin. The toss up will be if he can also score more points per dollar. I still might end up with Paulo come TLT

Honey Badger wrote:I still prefer Paulo over Smith, Welch, NAS.

Yeah, love the Paulo pick, had to find some cash to get other players in, so he became Tino, but would love to get him back in.

Honey Badger wrote:

I think Watson will start slow. I dont expect him to average anywhere near 50-60 to start with coming back from a seriuos injury

Yeah, Watson is a must-have obviously, but expecting gun keeper scores from him is... optimistic.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Yeah, Watson is a must-have obviously, but expecting gun keeper scores from him is... optimistic.

I'd be happy with 30-40 to start with