NRL Fantasy 2021 - Part 9 - ‘Twas the weekend before TLT

mattnz wrote:
Job security and injury history are definitely part of it, but only worthwhile if also outperforming their cost. The funny analysis last season was that Darius Boyd would have been one of the very best centers to have started with, for those reasons.

Not much room for that with a 500K centre though.

Centre strategy: Get two/three cheap guys you hope stay fit (more a luck than judgement call) and stay in team and can knock out 30+ until round 13 and then trade (if necessary) to the two round 17 players you think are going to score highest for the rest of season (eg Staggs, Manu, Aitken, Cotric... could be someone else by then)

mattnz wrote:
Job security and injury history are definitely part of it, but only worthwhile if also outperforming their cost. The funny analysis last season was that Darius Boyd would have been one of the very best centers to have started with, for those reasons.

Exactly. I remember people actually saying "fuck this, I'm picking Darius!"

My intention this year was to just pick the best job security cheap boring centres that I could. Someone like Jarrod Croker if he was available. 484k doesn't qualify. I'd rather kelly for slightly less. But if I did, it would be because of good job security, good injury history, gut feel with the better Titans team, rather than cherry picking stats.

rhinoceroo wrote:Centre strategy: Get two/three cheap guys you hope stay fit (more a luck than judgement call) and stay in team and can knock out 30+ until round 13 and then trade (if necessary) to the two round 17 players you think are going to score highest for the rest of season (eg Staggs, Manu, Aitken, Cotric... could be someone else by then)

Best thing ive read all night!

Jumping Marlin wrote:With thanks to Milch's spreadsheet and MTBs data, here's my current pre TLT take on Hookers.

Projected scores are my estimates.  The players are listed in order of points / cash upside based on that.

The column "risk" is a my current take on certainty - eg job security, injury, new coach etc.

[And duals who have HOK listed as their second position are excluded].

Where does Croker rank here?

@Mulvy is on a roll, i upvoted at least 5 of his posts on the last few pages

General reminder that tomorrow is the last day for joining leagues and guaranteeing your place in the fanatics leagues. There are a few members who have failed to join their leagues and will be replaced if not done so tomorrow. A reminder that all members are required to join both their fanatics league (L1, L2 etc) as well as the overall fanatic group (FOG). Failure will result in punting your ass, probably. Any questions, PM a mod.

Rabbits21 wrote:

Couldn’t fit in Hopoate? He’s 21k more than Bird and has DPP Centre/WFB....

I got him into my draft a few mins ago draft 30 that was!

I don’t have the money! I can if Faamausili starts as prop for Saints. Does anyone know much about him or what his job security is like?

Chewie wrote:@Mulvy is on a roll, i upvoted at least 5 of his posts on the last few pages

And then I ruined it with my narky, school hall monitor admin post!

Completely unrelated.....

@Mearcats  check your PMs mate. You know what to do.....

I like when Mulvy gets on the wines.

Another night of matthewnz vs the world it seems!

Hope everyone is being good to the other half on the last weekend without NRL. Just got home from the pub and not even in trouble, big win

my tv broke wrote:I like when Mulvy gets on the wines.

Another night of matthewnz vs the world it seems!

Hope everyone is being good to the other half on the last weekend without NRL. Just got home from the pub and not even in trouble, big win

Haha, no wines for me tonight my friend.

....no bourbons either

mattnz wrote:
There arent any decent cheap options either. If I can set and forget, without spending a lot, I am ahead of everyone else. Keep in mind we value a trade around $150k. Makes a huge difference to get it right to start with and center is a position that you can fill without it costing tonnes to get a potential keeper.

I am shocked you aren’t keen on Hopoate. He’s just under 400k and has DPP as well.

He should average mid maybe high 30’s which is fine for a centre and you don’t have to worry about it.

Mulvy wrote:

Don't like any of them. I'm considering Milford for the same (presumably) 14-17 role.

Not keen on Lodge? He’s been in most of my drafts. I think he’s worth the punt and he’s cheap.

my tv broke wrote:I like when Mulvy gets on the wines.

Another night of matthewnz vs the world it seems!

Hope everyone is being good to the other half on the last weekend without NRL. Just got home from the pub and not even in trouble, big win

Does your other half know or care about your fantasy skills?

Mulvy wrote:

Exactly. I remember people actually saying "fuck this, I'm picking Darius!"

My intention this year was to just pick the best job security cheap boring centres that I could. Someone like Jarrod Croker if he was available.  484k doesn't qualify. I'd rather kelly for slightly less. But if I did, it would be because of good job security, good injury history, gut feel with the better Titans team, rather than cherry picking stats.

I just nearly rolled off the lounge in laughter legit with that Darius comment

Jumping Marlin wrote:With thanks to Milch's spreadsheet and MTBs data, here's my current pre TLT take on Hookers.

Projected scores are my estimates.  The players are listed in order of points / cash upside based on that.

The column "risk" is a my current take on certainty - eg job security, injury, new coach etc.

[And duals who have HOK listed as their second position are excluded].

Great work! I think this just highlights the going cheap in HOK is the way to go. The money saved on Cook, for instance, gets you a gun half or FB where there really is very little quality! Three cheap hookers in J Brailley, Liddle, and Watson look automatic choices. How many hookers are people going to have in their 21?

Rabbits21 wrote:

Not keen on Lodge? He’s been in most of my drafts. I think he’s worth the punt and he’s cheap.

No fancy stats, just looked underdone to me in the trial, and not convinced he gets the starting role/minutes when Haas is back. Mulvy 2019 learning's notes say not to look a gift horse in the mouth - don't overlook a cheapie with previous fantasy pedigree. Put him in NPRs if you have to. (I was referring to Bird at the time)

Does Lodge qualify?

Holy Moly wrote:


Does your other half know or care about your fantasy skills?

She knows im into it.. thinks its cool but also doesnt really care. Assuming no different from most ?

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
I don’t have the money! I can if Faamausili starts as prop for Saints. Does anyone know much about him or what his job security is like?

You’d think he sees 40mins. Even if Kerr plays some time at prop he’s not a big mins prop so shouldn’t affect Faamusili from still getting 35 maybe 40mins.

In 8 games over 30mins he’s averaged 28.4 so there seems to be some upside there.

My 14-21 is currently Angus, J. Brailey, Liddle, Hetherington, Averillo, Croker/Faamusili, Utoikamanu and Niu.