NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 33 - Was that the best round in the world? No it was just a tribute!

Hey MS what are your thoughts on Peachey and whether he is worth having at CTR? Paired with Momorovski. I feel uneasy having over 1million tied up at CTR

Jumping Marlin wrote:Thanks to Milch for the magic number info.  A few thoughts:

The MN is now roughly 10% lower than what players were priced at the start of the year.
Players will have to score 10% more points to retain their starting price.

This is correct. But just for clarification it is not unique to this season. Same thing happens every year.

This brings me to Riki.  His current average is 45 and he’s priced at $494k.  At start of year a 45 would’ve got him to almost $600k.  Now it’ll get him only to around $550 (if MN doesn’t drop anymore).
So, he’s got maybe $55k more to make.  Unfortunately his 36 last week slows the money making.  

If he gets 45 every week from now on, he will only go up $14k this week then $5-6k per week.
If he gets 40 every week from now on, he will go up $9k this week before losing $2-3k per week.
If he gets 30 off the bench this week and then starts averaging 45, he’ll drop $2k for 2 weeks before starting to increase.  He’d make $14k total in 5 weeks.
Even a 30 followed by 50 average he only makes $12k in 3 weeks and $45k in 5 weeks.

TLDR: Even in best scenario, Riki looks such a slow burn, I might be bidding him farewell.

[Calcs above use MN of 12,200, per Milch’s earlier post.  Will differ to MTB’s magnificent site due to different MN used]

This is true. But ignore the 23 in round 1, and Riki's average as a starter is 50.
So I think your best case scenario is more plausible than you make out. But that's if (and it a big if) Riki gets is starting spot back.

Big if:

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Couple of reasons

Not playing the role I expected
When I took Munster I expected with Smith gone, Munster would step up and take on more of the kicking duties. So far Hughes has taken a larger share, with Papy occasionally getting a short one. Munster's scores are nice but I don't believe they are sustainable without this base

Squad rebalancing
I started the year with Cleary, Moses and Munster as guns expecting that halves would do well. With Schuster, SOS and Walker all looking playable, as well as Turpin and Liddle in my reserves I currently have to sit 2 of these cows that should be in the 17, while playing the likes of Leniu and Riki every week. Pivoting into a MID pushes Leniu back to 18-21 so he can slow burn and fixes this squad balance

Bye preparation
At some point before origin I'll want to get rid of Munster because he probably isn't a top tier keeper in the position (see point 1) and is as locked as you can be for origin. Trading him to a round 13 gun gives me one less thing to worry about

Yeah that’s sound. I don’t have Moses but have Schuster SOS Walker so all playable.

Thoughts on going Munster to Peachey to have a keeper CTR combo with Momo? Could also get Bird instead for cheaper with cash rises instead of Peachey

TU: Moylan + Roberts > Haas + Hampton
TD: Moylan + Riki > Tohu + Peach

Surely Tohu + Peach is better value?

Currently have Bird, Jet and Niu

Kinda tempted to go Munster and Niu/Riki to Harris and Tevaga.

Riki and Tups and there current statuses makes that 2nd EDG position a bit stressful so Harris paired with Fifita makes that a lot more solid.

Tevaga is perhaps a slight luxury trade, maybe better served getting Fogarty in and removing that positional security doubt that Tevaga has

Was all set for Welch to Haas this week with a Fui cash out but Kevy has really scuppered those plans. Probably still try to do those moves next week

I know Milf might be back in a week or two but I feel good about moving him to Fog now, who I wanted to start the season with but couldn't fit in.

Then will need another centre so probably either Riki or Niu to Bird on the cards because he plays rd 13, probably Riki to give me the cash I need for Haas. Niu can waste away in emg for a couple weeks but hopeful he may get back into the lineup.

Will mean I have to play Fui or Leniu this week until Schuster gets dpp but can deal with that.

Let's see what TLT throws up

Hindsight is a beautiful thing, but I should of thought about round 6 when I traded last week. Its easy to say now, after Tino scored poorly, but if I ran without mid cover last week and grabbed SOS instead, it would have allowed me to go BS9 to Haas this week quite easily.

It didn't occur that Schuster would pick up DPP next week and solve the coverage problem (given Crichton is DPP)

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Hey MS what are your thoughts on Peachey and whether he is worth having at CTR? Paired with Momorovski. I feel uneasy having over 1million tied up at CTR

I personally don't plan to be trading in any centre eligible player until after round 13. If Peachey starts playing more minutes than I expect regularly that might change, but as of now I'm not ready to spend the big bucks until it's a lower percentage of my salary cap

BCT05 wrote:Was all set for Welch to Haas this week with a Fui cash out but Kevy has really scuppered those plans. Probably still try to do those moves next week

I know Milf might be back in a week or two but I feel good about moving him to Fog now, who I wanted to start the season with but couldn't fit in.

Then will need another centre so probably either Riki or Niu to Bird on the cards because he plays rd 13, probably Riki to give me the cash I need for Haas. Niu can waste away in emg for a couple weeks but hopeful he may get back into the lineup.

Will mean I have to play Fui or Leniu this week until Schuster gets dpp but can deal with that.

Let's see what TLT throws up

Yeah, I'm liking Milf to Fog too. Also leaning towards just letting Niu sit. Was going to trade to Hampton for cover but running Peachey and Bird, I don't think I need to worry about that just yet.

wolfking wrote:

Yeah, I'm liking Milf to Fog too.  

Are you making this trade on the assumption he won't be back next week?

I'm having a hard time imagining a world in which the Broncos lose to the Panthers by 50 pts and Croft retains the starting spot a week later

I guess Kev may keep him in reserve grade for two weeks to show the squad he is ~really serious~

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I personally don't plan to be trading in any centre eligible player until after round 13. If Peachey starts playing more minutes than I expect regularly that might change, but as of now I'm not ready to spend the big bucks until it's a lower percentage of my salary cap

Yeah that’s the feeling I’m getting, will probably stick with Roberts for the foreseeable future and just pretend that position doesn’t exist right now.

my tv broke wrote:

Are you making this trade on the assumption he won't be back next week?

I'm having a hard time imagining a world in which the Broncos lose to the Panthers by 50 pts and Croft retains the starting spot a week later

I guess Kev may keep him in reserve grade for two weeks to show the squad he is ~really serious~

Are you saying it's a one-week coaching masterstroke to protect Milford from a career-ending flogging? (And, for that matter, Riki's loss of confidence from ten missed tackles on Kikau.)

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:

Playing with injections through some minorish cartilage damage in his knee. I’d avoid personally. Not sure if the upside is worth the risk

Thanks mate

I think I’ll take the punt that Riki will be back starting after a week or two and put him into EMG for a little bit.

Munster > Fog
Niu > Harris

Brailey
Watson, Tino, Lodge
Fifita, Harris
Cleary, Fog
Momo, Roberts
Papy, Brimson, Laurie

Turpin, Schuster, SOS, Liddle
Walker, Tups, Riki, Utoikamanu

First thoughts is that 18-21 looks way too overpowered?

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Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:I think I’ll take the punt that Riki will be back starting after a week or two and put him into EMG for a little bit.

Munster > Fog
Niu > Harris

Brailey
Watson, Tino, Lodge
Fifita, Harris
Cleary, Fog
Momo, Roberts
Papy, Brimson, Laurie

Turpin, Schuster, SOS, Liddle
Walker, Tups, Riki, Utoikamanu

First thoughts is that 18-21 looks way too overpowered?

That 14-21 is excellent for this stage of season and all making good money (except Sitili, who would have been without his HIA and will again.)

Only problem is zero WFB or CTR cover is asking for trouble and the probability of forcing trades or running short.

EDIT... I read underpowered not overpowered. It kind of is but there's still milk everywhere. (If you go through with these trades I'd play Harris FRF, Tups EDG and bench Lodge)

rhinoceroo wrote:

That 14-21 is excellent for this stage of season and all making good money (except Sitili, who would have been without his HIA and will again.)

Only problem is zero WFB or CTR cover is asking for trouble and the probability of forcing trades or running short.

EDIT... I read underpowered not overpowered. It kind of is but there's still milk everywhere. (If you go through with these trades I'd play Harris FRF, Tups EDG and bench Lodge)

Yeah I’ve gone from plenty to none in the space of two weeks haha but I might be willing to do it.
Just worries Tups goes from starting to bench again. I think I’m happier playing Lodge off the bat as a known quantity, and rest Tups again, but who knows.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

Yeah I’ve gone from plenty to none in the space of two weeks haha but I might be willing to do it.
Just worries Tups goes from starting to bench again. I think I’m happier playing Lodge off the bat as a known quantity, and rest Tups again, but who knows.

Yeah, fair enough. Reckon Tups was bench because he hadn't trained properly in the week, but you never know with Roosters.

Was debating with a work colleague the genius of a few of his trades this week and decided to spend 15mins doing a bit of an analysis of my trades and how I’m sitting after 5 rounds.

Current team (136k Itb.)
Brailey
JFH, Watson, Ipap
Chricton, Fifita
Cleary, Schuster
Bird, Cotric
Teddy, Laurie, Latrell

Riki, Liddle, SoS, Walker, Alvaro, Roberts, Stefano, Averillo


Trades to date:
Rd2:
Host to Davey
B-
Rd3
Davey to Schuster
Self explanatory. A+
Turpin to Cotric
I was drunk. Self-explanatory. F -
Rd 4
Lam to Walker
A-
Croker to iPap
Great trade A +
Ofa to Sullivan
B+

Going strongly enough, ranked in top 3000. My 14-21 is pretty average scoring wise, but all making money (outside of Roberts). The real balls up to date was the Turpin to cotric trade. Admittedly it gave me cover for the bird suspension and averilo dropping.

No super obvious trades to make, with the poorer scorers still making money outside the 17.
Roberts and Cotric really annoyed me last week, might look at upgrading Cotric to Peach or Momo.

Longer term, riki and Watson are on my hold/ready to trade out list. Hoping for a few more rounds out of them whilst my coin goats get a bit more cow like.

Keighran back for the Roosters this week according to a Foxsports journal who's also his sister-in-law.

Dunno if bench, hooker, or half with Hutchinson to hooker. Would probably goalkick if he starts.