NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 34 - Team List Tuesday Treachery

Revraiser wrote:

  I'm done, had a huge row with him and said you are gone Havarti !

Was talking to one of the trainers. Apparently he drives em mental

FaringdonSwirl wrote:

Love your work mate. What was the go with those fantasy projections? The 10 years data model you mentioned I mean.

We use historical data and put it into a statistical model which spits out a predicted Draftstars score. Same deal with first and any time try scorer odds.
Won't go into detail and bore you to death, but it can be really handy when making DFS teams or to find good value try scorer bets. I also manually track the try scorer odds on 6 sites so you can find where the best odds are (and know if they're actually good odds compared to our model and their career strike rate)!

Feel free to PM me if there's anything you wanted to ask or have any suggestions on what else we could look into!

Rabbits21 wrote:You guys on the Hampton train are nuts for mine he’s the Fusitua and Brad Parker of fantasy. I can’t do it to myself and put my blood pressure up over it AVOID!

He has legit never had a proper go at consistent footy, especially in the halves. Eligible at centre, anything over 30 every week is fine and playing at half he will get that more often than not.

Which trade do you like:
(a) Riki out - McCullough in or
(b) Riki out - T. Harris in or
(c) Riki out - I. Papalii in or
(d) Tino out - Haas in or
(e) Niu out - Bird in (also have Roberts & Momo)

Thoughts & thanks.

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:I'm going Tohu over Haas, I really need his DPP and will happily take his consistent 60 point scores for around 130k less than Haas. Either way you can't really go wrong though, lets be honest...

Minus 50 avg running metres a game this year plus minus the 2 try and line break assists and the try and he scores mid 50’s....

Also seems to be getting a few 8-15mins rests.

TU: play leniu
TD: play utoikamanu

easytiger wrote:First
Cheers, Slug

Under rated post

Boozecluez wrote:

Or you could grab a mid gun with a BE of 14 and only 7% ownership
Averaging 66pts and plays the first bye and priced 205k cheaper than Haas
This averages out to 75pts if he maintains his 5 game average up to the first bye given Haas plays Origin
And not to mention he makes close to 150k in the next 3 weeks (Close to Haas price now)

Haas would need to average 75pts short term to even hold his current price
Hopefully he can increase his PPM on the reduced minutes

Matto could be back soon and Papalii back to bench?

Is 50mins off the bench enough for him to score well though?

WT Winfield wrote:

I'm torn on which 2 of Jensen, Leniu and Walker from those mentioned. Schuster and Simpkin I'd lock in, Croker out.

Any loop option for Leniu? Real boom/bust chance tonight.

If Taumalolo's not playing, I could see a case for Jensen. Not much KM base for Walker, but I still find it tough to leave him out.

thanks Winfield and Wolfie. can loop Leniu with Walker or Jensen. i tried to work out the Cowboys forward rotations and decided to just assume the same as last week with Lolo taking Cotter’s minutes. Anything around 35 minutes for Jensen should mean around 35 points, which i’d probably take at this stage...

White Lightning wrote:Which trade do you like:
(a) Riki out - McCullough in or
(b) Riki out - T. Harris in or
(c) Riki out - I. Papalii in or
(d) Tino out - Haas in or
(e) Niu out - Bird in (also have Roberts & Momo)

Thoughts & thanks.

B or D. Depends on the rest of your lineup though. Are you short on backups in any positions?

bigbruno wrote:

Who talked you out of him
And how!

From previous scores and the pod cast with cows having bank with Morgan and mcquire gone can buy a.mid season half.

Which one to play

TU: Averillo
TD: Roberts

Rabbits21 wrote:
Minus 50 avg running metres a game this year plus minus the 2 try and line break assists and the try and he scores mid 50’s....

Also seems to be getting a few 8-15mins rests.

A bit like Haas, down 20avg running metres and about 5 minutes with talk of playing less minutes this year (Played more due to injuries)
5 less tackles a game too
He has increased his attacking stats in a poor team and playing against the best defensive team in the comp this week
Based on last years stats this has offset the reduction in base stats so how sustainable is this long term?

Is Milford to Fogarty and Liddle to Peachey too sideways ?

EJ24 wrote:Is Milford to Fogarty and Liddle to Peachey too sideways ?

Its two red dots to two green dots, so not really.

Rabbits21 wrote:

Matto could be back soon and Papalii back to bench?

Is 50mins off the bench enough for him to score well though?

Matto has also had serious head knocks this year and spent time out in previous years
Was also exploring new contracts elsewhere so maybe he doesn't play alot or becomes out of favour
Papalii is in form, so maybe he sustains his current scoring
We said for the 5 weeks he wont keep it up, maybe he is this years YEO

Rabbits21 wrote:
Minus 50 avg running metres a game this year plus minus the 2 try and line break assists and the try and he scores mid 50’s....

Also seems to be getting a few 8-15mins rests.

Can't ignore his scores. 5 60's in a row. Mighty impressive

EJ24 wrote:Is Milford to Fogarty and Liddle to Peachey too sideways ?

Liddle to Peachey is solid cause he's a keeper in the CTRs.

Fogarty depends if you think he can keep up his 50-60 avg. I think it seems likely because the Broncos game was just bad scoring for everyone and the raiders game he must've been playing injured. Definitely considering Fog or Moses when I trade Riki next week.

Boozecluez wrote:

Matto has also had serious head knocks this year and spent time out in previous years
Was also exploring new contracts elsewhere so maybe he doesn't play alot or becomes out of favour
Papalii is in form, so maybe he sustains his current scoring
We said for the 5 weeks he wont keep it up, maybe he is this years YEO

You’re tempting me mate. When do you plan to grab Haas though?

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:

Can't ignore his scores. 5 60's in a row. Mighty impressive

Yeah and only the 1 try so definitely sustainable if he keeps up the effort
Scored 2 large scores in base stats against top 8 teams which is impressive