NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

For picking 3/5 there are few enough options you can just type them out

Here's all 32 possibilities for betting on 5 outcomes, where outcomes where you win 3/5 highlighted.
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WWWWL
WWWLW
WWWLL
WWLWW
WWLWL
WWLLW
WWLLL
WLWWW
WLWWL
WLWLW
WLWLL
WLLWW
WLLWL
WLLLW
WLLLL
LWWWW
LWWWL
LWWLW
LWWLL
LWLWW
LWLWL
LWLLW
LWLLL
LLWWW
LLWWL
LLWLW
LLWLL
LLLWW
LLLWL
LLLLW
LLLLL



By comparison, if you just bet on a single number on a roulette table, a $10 bet would have odds of 1/37 of winning, but the house only pays you on odds of 1/36 (assuming there is just a single 0, some roulette tables have 00 as well)
Which is a 2.7% advantage to the house, or much better odds than draftstars give.

Of course you can't study form to predict roulette results but you can in fantasy, which is where you can get your edge playing draft stars.
But a lot of the time its just trying to guess which of 2 players will score a try

eg in the Sharks v Storm matchups, in 3 of the 5 matchups a try scorer beat a non-try scorer by less than 8 points. (Reimiss Smith smashed Mawene Hiroti, and Olam beat Hynes in the other 2)

I feel like all of this should make me a better gambler but I am still completely rubbish

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:I feel like all of this should make me a better gambler but I am still completely rubbish

It's not possible to be a good gambler on casino house edge games.

Would love to hear Matt's roulette system, btw.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:I feel like all of this should make me a better gambler but I am still completely rubbish

rhinoceroo wrote:
It's not possible to be a good gambler on casino house edge games.

Would love to hear Matt's roulette system, btw.

Indeed, the best way to gamble is not to bet any money.

Or at the very least, treat any bet as money spent on entertainment, and if you win anything back its a bonus.

Milchcow wrote:



Indeed, the best way to gamble is not to bet any money.

Or at the very least, treat any bet as money spent on entertainment, and if you win anything back its a bonus.

Yeah this is me. $20 bucks a weekend on a lil horse multi

Anywho just need to toot the Brimson horn.

More of this please mate would be appreciated.

I am liking all the posts about the math but I can't be bothered reading them. Its too early in the morning and I haven't had my coffee yet. To put it mildly I dont like my odds without the caffeine.

@multiple.scoregasms You ended up playing Reimis ?

sajjos wrote:@multiple.scoregasms You ended up playing Reimis ?

He's got him coming in for Tedesco so shot MS

Those posts and calculations on odds early Saturday morning are inappropriate... just sayin'
....


Haha, nah well done R&T, Marlin and Milch. Some quality posts there

I didn't see the games last night. How did the Broncos look? Did Gamble and Milf make a difference?
Or did the Titans have a bad night out?

Titans defence was shit. Every time the broncos passed the ball more than once the Titans found themselves short on an edge. Gamble and Milford didn’t play that well the Titans just played shit

Apparently Daine Laurie is in doubt because of a hamstring issue

Gamble was pumped though. Went super saiyan when Brimson got binned. Which was a bit over the top given Broncos were still behind at that point. But points for enthusiasm

Chewie wrote:I didn't see the games last night. How did the Broncos look? Did Gamble and Milf make a difference?
Or did the Titans have a bad night out?

Titans just couldn’t tackle. Milf and Gamble were ok. Gamble seemed to bring a bit of something to the team. He’s a grade A knob, but sometimes you need a knob in your life.

I thought Gamble was a great addition to the Broncos. May not have set the game alight skills wise but having a guy who won't back down and puts in 100% at all the times was just what the Broncos needed.

rectangle wrote:

Titans just couldn’t tackle. Milf and Gamble were ok. Gamble seemed to bring a bit of something to the team. He’s a grade A knob, but sometimes you need a knob in your life.

That's the only reason the misses keeps me around.

Gamble has the Gutho gene, where people just want to punch him in the head.

Is Gamble like that always or was he just trying to make an impression in his first grade opportunity?