HomeI thought gamble seemed to straighten the attack a little and play more direct which gave more space to the guys outside him, like the try where he combined with Milf. That, the energy and seemingly doing an ok job in defence (it's hard to give anyone a pass from that game as it was entirely optional) should be an improvement most weeks for the bronies
NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
Archer- Posts : 6604
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- Post n°41
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by Archer Sat May 01, 2021 9:46 am
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- Post n°42
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by Revraiser Sat May 01, 2021 9:48 am
Rippin and Tearin wrote:
- Spoiler:
Morning all - just wanted to point out that this is not how probability theory works and there is flaw in the logic of the post above.
Matt's calculations above, the $1.80 x 2 x 2 does not reflect already having the first 3 correct (or at least a payout for that) and then needing a further 2/2 (to get 5/5) it reflects having any 3 out of 5 correct (very different to 3/3) and then getting a further 2/2.
In fact, without showing the math, the odds draftstars are giving you for getting any 3/5 is actually better than they are giving you for getting 5/5 correct.
The house is taking a 10% cut in the former, while they are taking nearly a 40% cut in the later! So unsurprisingly on both options (assuming each is a 50-50 call) the house wins, but without doubt you are better off having a crack at the 3/5 rather than the 5/5.
BTW @mattnz were updates kind to you? hope you won mate!
Think the TPJ v MFoto one flipped, there was half a point in it on the buzzer and then updates come in hours later.
Edit: seems a winner, well done again.
Last edited by Revraiser on Sat May 01, 2021 9:51 am; edited 1 time in total
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- Post n°43
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by mattnz Sat May 01, 2021 9:49 am
Thanks for the explanations. Updates were kind, needed Mofo to be given his TB at the end of the game, which came through in updates.Rippin and Tearin wrote:
Morning all - just wanted to point out that this is not how probability theory works and there is flaw in the logic of the post above.
Matt's calculations above, the $1.80 x 2 x 2 does not reflect already having the first 3 correct (or at least a payout for that) and then needing a further 2/2 (to get 5/5) it reflects having any 3 out of 5 correct (very different to 3/3) and then getting a further 2/2.
In fact, without showing the math, the odds draftstars are giving you for getting any 3/5 is actually better than they are giving you for getting 5/5 correct.
The house is taking a 10% cut in the former, while they are taking nearly a 40% cut in the later! So unsurprisingly on both options (assuming each is a 50-50 call) the house wins, but without doubt you are better off having a crack at the 3/5 rather than the 5/5.
BTW @mattnz were updates kind to you? hope you won mate!
Compared with a normal draft stars game, where depending on the number of participants, to turn $15 into $300 you need to be getting a top 10 finish. To do this you need to be picking 9 players that all perform great and have none of them get injured or rested in the game.
I am seeing this as a much easier way to win, as you only need 5 outcomes to go your way, instead of 9 for similar odds.
May have just been beginners luck, but will take a $400 win first up and looking forward to the next time they offer this option.
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- Post n°44
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by Erin Moleman Sat May 01, 2021 9:52 am
Hoping to turn stefano into grant with 1 trade next week. It’s only a matter of time before he goes crazy
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- Post n°45
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by Guest Sat May 01, 2021 9:55 am
Possibly the tigers captains run will shed some light on possible team changes
lewis9966- Posts : 451
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- Post n°46
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by lewis9966 Sat May 01, 2021 9:58 am
Erin Moleman wrote:Hoping to turn stefano into grant with 1 trade next week. It’s only a matter of time before he goes crazy
Did Grant start this week? I missed the Storm game
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- Post n°47
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by wolfking Sat May 01, 2021 10:04 am
lewis9966 wrote:
Did Grant start this week? I missed the Storm game
Yeah mate.
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- Post n°48
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by Erin Moleman Sat May 01, 2021 10:04 am
lewis9966 wrote:
Did Grant start this week? I missed the Storm game
Yeah started with cheese at lock. I think it should continue from now on. Got an early shower as well so close games he should be playing 80
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- Post n°49
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by sajjos Sat May 01, 2021 10:04 am
Revraiser wrote:Is Gamble like that always or was he just trying to make an impression in his first grade opportunity?
In response to your post, Gamble has this to say to a reporter
"I just can't back down, it's not in my nature. I love it."
— AAP Sport (@AAPSport) April 30, 2021
Rookie halfback Tyson Gamble reveals the fire in his belly that sparked @brisbanebroncos to their greatest-ever #NRL comeback win.
From @wenzel87 https://t.co/AC1cEPGMkW
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- Post n°50
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by Adrianoooo Sat May 01, 2021 10:16 am
FalconSloth wrote:Apparently Daine Laurie is in doubt because of a hamstring issue
I’d like to think this fucks over most people because I know I am
easytiger- Moderator
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- Post n°51
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by easytiger Sat May 01, 2021 10:16 am
Gamble did come across as a bit of a douche
But, I've got to say, the Bronco's bringing in a player who isn't quiet and inexperienced, and has an assertiveness and confidence and genuinely looks like he is passionate about the opportunity to be out there playing and desperate to win - well, that seems like something that they've been missing for a while. I think Gamble was instrumental in turning the momentum and there were points in the second half where the Bronco's played with a confidence not seen for quite some time.
Of course I'll probably hate his mouthy face when they play the Tigers, but in the meantime I'm kind've happy for the Bronco's fans - it's never fun when your team is the current "basketcase of the NRL".
But, I've got to say, the Bronco's bringing in a player who isn't quiet and inexperienced, and has an assertiveness and confidence and genuinely looks like he is passionate about the opportunity to be out there playing and desperate to win - well, that seems like something that they've been missing for a while. I think Gamble was instrumental in turning the momentum and there were points in the second half where the Bronco's played with a confidence not seen for quite some time.
Of course I'll probably hate his mouthy face when they play the Tigers, but in the meantime I'm kind've happy for the Bronco's fans - it's never fun when your team is the current "basketcase of the NRL".
easytiger- Moderator
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by easytiger Sat May 01, 2021 10:18 am
CONFIRMED: Zac Cini is in...
But it's not for who you think it is...
But it's not for who you think it is...
- The big reveal:
Jimmy the (grounded) jet is out
https://www.weststigers.com.au/news/2021/05/01/zac-cini-to-make-nrl-debut/
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- Post n°53
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by Mr Snrub Sat May 01, 2021 10:21 am
Surely I'll be smarter than to trade in a Broncos half but you can probably rule out Tom Dearden making many more appearances this year so Gamble just needs to perform better than Milford to keep his spot over Croft.
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- Post n°54
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by ytsb Sat May 01, 2021 10:21 am
easytiger wrote:CONFIRMED: Zac Cini is in...
But it's not for who you think it is...
- The big reveal:
Jimmy the (grounded) jet is out
https://www.weststigers.com.au/news/2021/05/01/zac-cini-to-make-nrl-debut/
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- Post n°55
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by Mr Snrub Sat May 01, 2021 10:22 am
easytiger wrote:CONFIRMED: Zac Cini is in...
But it's not for who you think it is...
- The big reveal:
Jimmy the (grounded) jet is out
https://www.weststigers.com.au/news/2021/05/01/zac-cini-to-make-nrl-debut/
No Roberts means I'm playing with 16 this week. Oh no what am I going to do without those 10 points.
Adrianoooo- Posts : 1497
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- Post n°56
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by Adrianoooo Sat May 01, 2021 10:24 am
Damn, 16 players for me then I guess
Last edited by Adrianoooo on Sat May 01, 2021 10:25 am; edited 1 time in total
easytiger- Moderator
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- Post n°57
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by easytiger Sat May 01, 2021 10:24 am
ytsb wrote:
Yeah, it sux big time to lose the 8 points Robert's was almost guaranteed to score...
- The moment Roberts was ruled out:
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- Post n°58
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by mattnz Sat May 01, 2021 10:26 am
If Roberts, Teddy and Laurie are out, going to be lots of teams in trouble and playing short this week.
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- Post n°59
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by wolfking Sat May 01, 2021 10:29 am
This would suggest Laurie is fine, no?
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- Post n°60
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler
by Chewie Sat May 01, 2021 10:31 am
Thanks for the feedback lads.
And yes every team needs at least one knob...and an enforcer... and a guy that never shuts up and tells everyone what to do
And yes every team needs at least one knob...and an enforcer... and a guy that never shuts up and tells everyone what to do