NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 63 - The Gift of Hynesight

Mulvy wrote:

I'd say assertive trading .

I want to try and put myself in the mix to win something, even if it's just some KFC. I'd rather give myself a chance and hope for some luck, than play it safe and hope that others' bad luck moves me forward. HB mentioned this with regards to the guy in first. I've heard VK mention it previously too and it's how I see it too. The plan is revised weekly (hourly if I'm honest) and all going well after rd19/20 I'll be down to 3 trades, but the plan is to have a solid 21.

The risk is over-doing it, I'm in a reasonable position. Last year I squandered a good position with a couple of awful trades and don't want to repeat it. But I'm still a few hundred points away, I think I need to go reasonably hard at rd17. I could trade six of those guys save a couple of trades and have a couple less for rd17. I could make nine trades and go even harder. Hard to work out a balance. I think with some luck and a fully balanced 21, 3 trades might be enough for the run home. A lot of these decision will be made in a few weeks anyway, but it's good to have an overarching strategy.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

To win the whole thing you need a bunch of luck to go your way. If I was in your position I'd be max trading for round 17 and running home on fumes praying to get lucky with injuries/suspensions. You might flame out and end up coming 700th or you might have the dice roll your way and win the whole thing

Mulvy wrote:

I'd say assertive trading .

I want to try and put myself in the mix to win something, even if it's just some KFC. I'd rather give myself a chance and hope for some luck, than play it safe and hope that others' bad luck moves me forward. HB mentioned this with regards to the guy in first. I've heard VK mention it previously too and it's how I see it too. The plan is revised weekly (hourly if I'm honest) and all going well after rd19/20 I'll be down to 3 trades, but the plan is to have a solid 21.

The risk is over-doing it, I'm in a reasonable position. Last year I squandered a good position with a couple of awful trades and don't want to repeat it. But I'm still a few hundred points away, I think I need to go reasonably hard at rd17. I could trade six of those guys save a couple of trades and have a couple less for rd17. I could make nine trades and go even harder. Hard to work out a balance. I think with some luck and a fully balanced 21, 3 trades might be enough for the run home. A lot of these decision will be made in a few weeks anyway, but it's good to have an overarching strategy.

Mulvy wrote:

I'd say assertive trading .

I want to try and put myself in the mix to win something, even if it's just some KFC. I'd rather give myself a chance and hope for some luck, than play it safe and hope that others' bad luck moves me forward. HB mentioned this with regards to the guy in first. I've heard VK mention it previously too and it's how I see it too. The plan is revised weekly (hourly if I'm honest) and all going well after rd19/20 I'll be down to 3 trades, but the plan is to have a solid 21.

The risk is over-doing it, I'm in a reasonable position. Last year I squandered a good position with a couple of awful trades and don't want to repeat it. But I'm still a few hundred points away, I think I need to go reasonably hard at rd17. I could trade six of those guys save a couple of trades and have a couple less for rd17. I could make nine trades and go even harder. Hard to work out a balance. I think with some luck and a fully balanced 21, 3 trades might be enough for the run home. A lot of these decision will be made in a few weeks anyway, but it's good to have an overarching strategy.

easytiger wrote:

That would be brilliant!
Thank you

WT Winfield wrote:


Of the 3 I mentioned I'd keep, 2 are dealing with injury, so plans could change pretty quickly. My thing with Brailey is that ignoring Cleary, he's been in the mix as a legit captain option most of the season and I find it difficult to go without anyone in that conversation.

ynot wrote:

I agree with this.

Just ran some numbers: when Ash/Fog play together Taylor takes away about 11% of Fogarty's kick metres which equates to about 60m per game or 3 fantasy points. So it's not massive.

Fogarty's kicking numbers have dropped off quite a bit over the last few weeks though, maybe a niggle?

Here's an ugly chart. (green = Fog, red = Ash, blue = Boyd, Total kicking metres in the label)

ynot wrote:

I agree with this.

Just ran some numbers: when Ash/Fog play together Taylor takes away about 11% of Fogarty's kick metres which equates to about 60m per game or 3 fantasy points. So it's not massive.

Fogarty's kicking numbers have dropped off quite a bit over the last few weeks though, maybe a niggle?

Here's an ugly chart. (green = Fog, red = Ash, blue = Boyd, Total kicking metres in the label)

my tv broke wrote:

Hung on to claim 5th even though my team was on fumes. Still dirty on Cleary's 4 try 120 in the last round which catapulted some bloke past me.

robelgordo wrote:

I was just looking at this without the sexy chart, because Fog + Boyd = good, Fog + Taylor = bad, seemed too simple to me. In R12 the Titans didn't kick much at all, so we basically have one match (R13) where things are weird. Not really keen to sell without a second data point at least.

wolfking wrote:Out of Brailey, Fog, Moses and IPap, I think IPap is my biggest concern of the week.  I reckon he's starting to feel the effects of regular NRL like Brailey but not playing 80 minutes now seems like a massive Achilles heel the way he's going.  Tempted to trade him.

my tv broke wrote:Fog is a bit like Brailey imo. Team is going shithouse and the scores are reflecting that.

Yes Fog kicked more with Boyd there, but Fog generally scores well if the Titans are going well.

mrbrownstone wrote:

I heard a rumour on the Talking League podcast that Brailey has a hand injury that is hampering him. Could be totally made up, but obviously most are playing with some kind of injury at this point. It would make sense if true, I posted it the other day, but from rounds 1-10 he missed 12 tackles, last 3 rounds he's missed 15.