NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 77 - To'o tired to think of a witty title

ynot wrote:I've been digging into the whole question of "do matchups matter?". I think it's of interest with the season coming to a close which means strength of remaining schedule is becoming more variant, especially with the competition gap. It might also be helpful for H2H players looking to target specific weeks.

Here are some charts looking at the 2021 season for players playing over 40 minutes, to filter out injuries and small role bench players.

This looks at the correlation between game margin and total fantasy points scored. Margin being used as a proxy for the difference in how good a team is in a matchup.



The R = 0.25 refers to the correlation between the two variables, 0 being no relationship, 1 being a positive relationship.

This means there is a positive but weak relationship, between individual fantasy points and team margin. i.e. The more points a teams wins by the more fantasy points an individual in that team will score.

I think this is fairly obvious, because the events that occur when scoring game points also create fantasy points.

Lets see what happens when we break that down by position:



I think this also makes sense, backs are the most effected by game results (matchups), particularly fullbacks and halfbacks both having moderate positive correlations. Centres to a slightly less extent and Five Eighths even less.

Forwards on the other hand it doesn't matter so much, I'm guessing because their fantasy points are generated by tackles and run metres, which remain relatively consistent despite opposition.

What doesn't remain consistent between players is minutes played, so lets look at the previous chart on a points per minute basis:



A slight increased in correlation but nothing major.

To summarise: trade in backs, particularly halves and fullbacks, who have good matchups and don't trade in those that have tough matchups. Don't worry too much about the matchups for forwards!

Pretty obvious, but I'll hopefully dig into this a little deeper though out the week and come up with some recommendations.

StormTrooper96 wrote:Try celebrations (NFL/Soccer style)... For or Against??

I am all for it. I love seeing the creative things our players are doing, also good for a giggle. I hope it continues on after the fundraising ends.

Finch wrote:

So what trades are you making this week?

ynot wrote:I've been digging into the whole question of "do matchups matter?". I think it's of interest with the season coming to a close which means strength of remaining schedule is becoming more variant, especially with the competition gap. It might also be helpful for H2H players looking to target specific weeks.

Here are some charts looking at the 2021 season for players playing over 40 minutes, to filter out injuries and small role bench players.

This looks at the correlation between game margin and total fantasy points scored. Margin being used as a proxy for the difference in how good a team is in a matchup.



The R = 0.25 refers to the correlation between the two variables, 0 being no relationship, 1 being a positive relationship.

This means there is a positive but weak relationship, between individual fantasy points and team margin. i.e. The more points a teams wins by the more fantasy points an individual in that team will score.

I think this is fairly obvious, because the events that occur when scoring game points also create fantasy points.

Lets see what happens when we break that down by position:



I think this also makes sense, backs are the most effected by game results (matchups), particularly fullbacks and halfbacks both having moderate positive correlations. Centres to a slightly less extent and Five Eighths even less.

Forwards on the other hand it doesn't matter so much, I'm guessing because their fantasy points are generated by tackles and run metres, which remain relatively consistent despite opposition.

What doesn't remain consistent between players is minutes played, so lets look at the previous chart on a points per minute basis:



A slight increased in correlation but nothing major.

To summarise: trade in backs, particularly halves and fullbacks, who have good matchups and don't trade in those that have tough matchups. Don't worry too much about the matchups for forwards!

Pretty obvious, but I'll hopefully dig into this a little deeper though out the week and come up with some recommendations.

mrbrownstone wrote:

God this is good stuff, an upvote doesn't feel sufficient.

Also strengthens the argument for Ponga IMO. After he gets past the Roosters this week (touch wood, and hopefully bottoms out), the Knights run home is: Raiders, Broncos, Sharks, Bulldogs, Titans, Broncos.

i.e. half his games against the bottom 2 teams, one against the Titans who love to leak points, plus the Raiders and Sharks, the two teams directly ahead of them in on the ladder, so games they should be well up for if they want to make the 8.

I know the correlation wasn't particularly strong for hookers & locks, but maybe a factor in whether to hold Watson/Brailey too if you still have them. Watson in particular may be good for a few more attacking stats with that draw.

wolfking wrote:Holy hell, I didn't realise Latrell was so damn cheap!

Shady2K wrote:Gold Coast Titans will be without key trio Jamal Fogarty, Phil Sami and Erin Clark for Sunday's clash against the Dragons due to injuries.

wolfking wrote:

yeah, even though they said Fog was hopeful of playing, I don't see him worth keeping.

Mitch Rein around or Peach into hooker?

wolfking wrote:I like Murray too.  I'm toying with the idea of going forward heavy over backs for the remainder of the season.  Something like Fog to Murray gives me;

Brailey
Tolo Haas IPap
Fifita Crichton
SJ Moses
Bird Manu
Ted Walsh Hynes

Murray AFB CHN Watson

Burton Laurie Peach Verrills

Forward pack and bench looks awesome although pretty much means no Turbo or Cleary.  Cover in all postions though.  However, SJ a worry.  

Just throwing some thinkings out there.  We seem to have focused a lot this year on halves and backs and ynot's data there shows for good reason, but forwards have been getting the job done too and seems adding another gun like Murray may offset weaknesses in other areas.

wolfking wrote:I like Murray too.  I'm toying with the idea of going forward heavy over backs for the remainder of the season.  Something like Fog to Murray gives me;

Brailey
Tolo Haas IPap
Fifita Crichton
SJ Moses
Bird Manu
Ted Walsh Hynes

Murray AFB CHN Watson

Burton Laurie Peach Verrills

Forward pack and bench looks awesome although pretty much means no Turbo or Cleary.  Cover in all postions though.  However, SJ a worry.  

Just throwing some thinkings out there.  We seem to have focused a lot this year on halves and backs and ynot's data there shows for good reason, but forwards have been getting the job done too and seems adding another gun like Murray may offset weaknesses in other areas.

wolfking wrote:

yeah, even though they said Fog was hopeful of playing, I don't see him worth keeping.

Mitch Rein around or Peach into hooker?