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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 77 - To'o tired to think of a witty title

    Bethany_B
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    • Post n°801

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    Post by Bethany_B Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:10 pm

    With Moses out 3-5 weeks apparently, I've changed plan.

    This week, I will trade Moses and Tohu to Mahoney and Fifita, leaving me 15k and 3 trades.

    Next week, I will then trade Hynes to either Papy or Ponga, depending on how the three of them go this week.

    Leaves me 2 trades for the last 5 rounds which isn't great but it's at least better than last year when I ran out of trades with 5 weeks left to go.
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    danseels1985
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    • Post n°802

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    Post by danseels1985 Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:14 pm

    Really want to bring in Mahoney this week but no idea what to do now with this Moses news.

    3 trades 103k

    Brailey
    Haas Crichton AFB
    CHN Fifita
    DCE SJ
    Olam Burton
    Teddy Turbo Walsh

    Matterson
    ARey
    Hynes
    Fogarty
    Moses
    Verrills
    Crichton
    Savage

    Any ideas?
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    mrbrownstone
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    • Post n°803

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    Post by mrbrownstone Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:15 pm

    Is TPJ coming back the only threat to Hetherington's JS? Anyone else to be wary of, Broncos fans?
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    Shady2K
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    • Post n°804

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    Post by Shady2K Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:17 pm

    With Moses '3 to 5 weeks' but counting this week, he's already out 2 weeks? Or am I being too optimistic here
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    Bethany_B
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    • Post n°805

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    Post by Bethany_B Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:19 pm

    Shady2K wrote:With Moses '3 to 5 weeks' but counting this week, he's already out 2 weeks? Or am I being too optimistic here

    I would think R21-23 (3-5 weeks after Origin III)
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    • Post n°806

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    Post by Guest Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:30 pm

    EXCLUSIVE: Panthers officials say James Fisher-Harris will play this week and then leave the bubble to attend the birth of his child. That will lead to another round of quarantine... and it also may mean renewed interest in Tevita Pangai Jnr @NRLonNine @9NewsSyd
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    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    • Post n°807

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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:33 pm

    Moses to Mahoney seems like a pretty good trade if he can average 60 for the rest of the year
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    Pain
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    • Post n°808

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    Post by Pain Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:34 pm

    If Milf to Eels to cover Moses anyone having another crack Smile
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    wolfking
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    • Post n°809

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    Post by wolfking Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:46 pm

    Lower tier halves options are shit. Toying with the idea of getting Schuster back in. He looked fucking good last week.
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    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    • Post n°810

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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:46 pm

    This week is a toughy. Three trades I’d like to do over the next 2 weeks are:

    Moses > Murray

    Fog > Ponga
    Hynes > Cleary

    Would give me a WFB of Teddy, Ponga, Latrell, Walsh and Pappy haha


    Last edited by Liverpool_Bulldog on Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    robelgordo
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    • Post n°811

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    Post by robelgordo Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:47 pm

    Hilarious than I had 7 halves in my squad at one stage and now I’m down to SJ missing all of the tackles and Gamble who was meant to be a cow for sale.

    Can’t afford DCE and Hughes without wrecking the Cleary fund, so probably looking at Schuster back in or uhh Dylan Brown?
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    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:48 pm

    wolfking wrote:Lower tier halves options are shit.  Toying with the idea of getting Schuster back in.  He looked fucking good last week.

    Haha didn’t see this before posting. Think he’s the best option if you don’t want to pay 800k +
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    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:48 pm

    Gees that Knights run home looks good. Hynes to Ponga next week looks the go. Sadly Cleary looks one trade too many. Tohu to Haas this week!
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    Camo123
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    • Post n°814

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    Post by Camo123 Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:06 pm

    Trying to decide whether SJ to Mahoney is worth the sideways trade

    Currently 7 trades, 582k

    Looking at doing:
    Moses to Fifita
    SJ to Mahoney?

    Next week
    Hynes to Ponga
    Fogarty to Cleary (if Cleary back)

    Currently 24k short on current prices, but Ponga/Hynes price difference should extend enough to make it possible
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    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    • Post n°815

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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:10 pm

    Camo123 wrote:Trying to decide whether SJ to Mahoney is worth the sideways trade

    Currently 7 trades, 582k

    Looking at doing:
    Moses to Fifita
    SJ to Mahoney?

    Next week
    Hynes to Ponga
    Fogarty to Cleary (if Cleary back)

    Currently 24k short on current prices, but Ponga/Hynes price difference should extend enough to make it possible

    I’m glad someone is doing something similar to me.
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    ynot
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    • Post n°816

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    Post by ynot Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:10 pm

    Jumping Marlin wrote:
    Hey ynot.  Great stuff!  

    What are your thoughts on correlation vs causation?  EG The better players will score more fantasy points and will have the bigger wins.  So Nathan Cleary will sit in the top right of your graphs - ie high margins and high scores.  Someone like Nick Meaney will have lots of low fantasy scores and lots of big wins (losses?).

    I don't know how you'd isolate that??  Perhaps for every player in each game calculate an amount over or above their season average and map that Vs margins?  

    I went looking at Panthers scores  just to see if anything stood out on this front. Just looked at Cleary plus the three WFB (To'o, Edwards, Staines).  A few things I noted:
    > Cleary's biggest fantasy score of the year came in the worst Panthers margin game he has played in this year [a Panthers 8 point win.  Yep, he missed the 4 games Panthers have had lower margins or losses this year].
    > Panthers biggest win this year was 48points.  Cleary, Edwards and To'o all scored below their season average in this blowout. Staines the exception who smashed his season average.
    (I wonder if weaker players are the major beneficiaries of weak opposition??]
    > Each of Edwards, To'o, Staines average about 3-6 more ppg when Cleary plays.      

    Yeah, absolutely should put a big heading saying correlation does not imply causation.

    I suppose we can control for a teams ability in a fantasy average. But ultimately I don't think it matters? We want players in good teams who in certain positions generally score more points and if we can use matchups to get some unrealised value, that's handy too. I don't really care about individual ability too much, because they will always be playing in the context of a (good, bad or average) team. It would be pretty useful in projecting a player moving from one team to another to see how their fantasy output would potentially change.

    I may also be completely misunderstanding what you are saying, so please correct me if so!
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    Jele
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    • Post n°817

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    Post by Jele Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:10 pm

    Camo123 wrote:Trying to decide whether SJ to Mahoney is worth the sideways trade

    Currently 7 trades, 582k

    Looking at doing:
    Moses to Fifita
    SJ to Mahoney?

    Next week
    Hynes to Ponga
    Fogarty to Cleary (if Cleary back)

    Currently 24k short on current prices, but Ponga/Hynes price difference should extend enough to make it possible

    Trading out four halves in the next two weeks!  Who have you got left?
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    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:15 pm

    Jele wrote:

    Trading out four halves in the next two weeks!  Who have you got left?

    Hynes at WFB for me

    Schuster & Gamble the 2 available for me if I trade SJ out.
    Fogarty to Cleary doesn't impact HLF cover

    Team after Moses trade:
    McCullough
    Haas Lolo Thompson
    Fifita CHN
    Schuster Fogarty (Loop SJ & Gamble)
    Peachey Averillo
    Hynes Teddy Walsh

    IPap Crichton Latrell Watson
    Chambers Gamble SJ Verrills


    Last edited by Camo123 on Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Erin Moleman
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    • Post n°819

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    Post by Erin Moleman Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:18 pm

    Random and not relevant but why did rabbits drop Milne ? 6 tries in 5 games and was playing well
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    • Post n°820

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    Post by Guest Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:22 pm

    Walker and Reynolds make their wingers look better than what they really are
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