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NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Chewie Tue Sep 07, 2021 5:37 pm
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Mulvy Tue Sep 07, 2021 5:37 pm
Finally finished. Didn't set out to make it as detailed as I did, but here we are. In summary, I got more right than I got wrong and had a lot of luck. One thing that really stood out to me during this exercise is the importance of timing. Frequently this year I would trade someone in and they would have a ceiling game that week. Someone else might have made the exact same trades as me all year but one week later and had a vastly different outcome for both score and cash generation. Fair bit of luck involved here, but good decisions need to be made nonetheless. Hope it comes across as reflective, rather than boasty. I written these for myself before, never confident enough to post them.
- Mulvy's Madness:
- Learnings from 2021 Fantasy
Starting team
Brailey
Lodge Watson Welch
Fifita Riki
Cleary Milford
Bird Roberts
Teddy Pappy Laurie
Crichton Lam Liddle Turpin
Croker Simonsson Gosi Niu
My learnings from 2019 go into quite some detail about ensuring you have a set and forget captain. This year I was heavily influenced by MS’s deep dive into Cleary’s stats and I agreed they seemed sustainable. I don’t think anyone predicted he would blow his average out of the water by 20 points but I was expecting he could continue his 70+ form. When it became clear that McInnes, Lolo and Haas (and of course CS9) weren’t an option it really became a bit of a no brainer. Cook was the only other one I considered, but with Brailey an auto pick, and Watson, Liddle, Turpin and Croker as cover I didn’t need another hooker and Cook is more of a 60’s scorer than a 70+.
For my guns I had Cleary, Crichton, Fifita, Teddy, Pappy. I got lucky that Cleary, Fifita and Pappy all fired from the start. Crichton held his own, got a bit unlucky with Teddy stumbling at the start. That’s the risk though with paying big dollars for a WFB. My thinking with Teddy is that he always gets plenty of rest over origin and is a sell. So if you don’t start with him, when do you get him in? After six weeks and then sell for the first bye? Wait until after origin? That’s a big chunk of the year without him. My plan was to start with him and sell over origin. He tanked his price, so that didn’t happen. I don’t think selecting him was a mistake per se, but I feel like I probably won’t start with him next year. I would have selected Turbo. The inconsistent nature of WFB scoring means I probably only want one gun here to start the year. Pappy was a pretty easy selection once we knew he was GK. I’ll probably pick him next year too with his bench starts reducing his average.
Most of the other selections were fine. We’ve spoken about Lam vs Townsend already. Bird and Roberts were cheap. My bottom four were vomit worthy but were all cheap and starting. Welch went well, but BS9 would have been heaps better. It’s easy to say in hindsight, but we knew in advance that BS9 is built for fantasy, and played the first bye. Selecting him gives you a chance of that upside. Selecting Welch was possibly safer, he wouldn’t find himself on the bench with a 35-40 min role, but was unlikely to have a lot of upside. Selecting BS9 would have put myself in a position to get lucky, which is indeed what happened for owners and it wasn’t just in hindsight that this was evident. Honey Badger for example called it in preseason.
Milf started well but then got dropped which was predictable. He’s another one I could have got Townsend instead. Very important to look for role changes particularly halves being paired with a new partner who is not a noted kicker.
Round two – Lodge to Alvaro
Alvaro vs Leniu was this years Host vs Lawrie. They both score a point per minute. It seemed to me that Alvaro was set to play 40 minutes and Leniu 35. And Alvaro was cheaper. Simple as that. Even though Leniu will probably be a better player. Whilst I think I made the right decision, I have to say, Leniu owners got pretty damn unlucky.
Round three – Simonsson to Schuster and Turpin to Egan (Edited – I put the wrong trade down earlier)
Simonsson looked pretty ordinary, his stats weren’t great in the first place and Raiders seem to always shift the ball the other way. Schuster looked the goods and had lowered his BE playing most of the previous game in the second row off the bench through injury and seemed like a must have cash cow. Good trade. I think a lot of what I did well this year was my attitude of “let’s not fuck around, just do it”. That led to my bringing in of cash cows like Schuster, Walker, SOS, Simpkin early. Unfortunately it also led to my next trade of Turpin to Egan. Terrible trade. I should have seen with foresight that trading one mediocre hooker from a mediocre side to another mediocre hooker from another mediocre side was sideways as fuck. Backwards in fact in this case. I need more patience here in early season with green dots. Quickly cutting duds and injured players has served me well and I will keep playing aggressively, but Turpin wasn’t even going that badly. I need to save a couple of these dud trades so I can play aggressively over the byes which gives more bang for buck.
Round four – Gosieski to O’Sullivan and Lam to Walker
I got lucky here. Pretty sure I was going to trade Croker instead of Gosi, but from memory Gosi was benched in the one hour final team lists so I reversed trades and kept Croker which obviously turned out well. Lam was injured so a no brainer trade out. As I said above getting those guys (SOS and Walker) in quickly was key to making quick cash and not letting the duds/injuries pile up. I remember having a discussion about that with Booze et al, he pointed out how he was always a week ahead when everyone was debating whether to bring in these guys, and I was in the same boat. It means that for me SOS was a half decent result and made some cash. Whilst you don’t miss too much cash by waiting a week, you may miss an opportunity when the following week you have other fires to put out. Trading hard the first weeks to get right cash cows is something I’ll keep doing, but I’ll revisit how hard I go at it if there are changes to the rules and squad sizes.
Round five – No trades. I had 21 green dots and as already outlined I’d been aggressively collecting cash cows.
Round six – Riki to Moses and Liddle to Simpkin
Riki was benched. He’d made some cash and no one knew how many minutes he’d play and Moses, a rd13 gun had dropped in price due to his (?) concussion game. No time to fuck around, just do it. Moses scored 73. Liddle was dropped and there were big wraps on Simpkin. I don’t need to wait a week to see a base price starting hooker. Neary all of them would make money.
Round seven – Niu to Peachey and Milford to Turbo
Possibly my best trades of the year. A lot of people were against paying 565k for a centre but Niu was dropped and we had no idea when he’d be back. Meanwhile I’m playing James Roberts who was putting up teens. I was starting to bye plan at this stage and figured Peachey could give me some reliable scoring off the bench, and in rd 13 should start at lock for big minutes with Tino in origin. It allowed Roberts to go to my reserves as cover. I waited a week to see if Milf looked likely to return, but with no news I decided grab Turbo at 503k. I had waited a week to see his hamstrings get through a game and knew I had to have him. It felt weird because it meant Laurie was now out of the 17 but my gut said I needed Turbo before his price got out of reach. I also knew I’d probably have to play Laurie half the time anyway, there always seems to be someone out. This is the first week Pappy was out too, so it gave me someone solid I could play. Turbo and Peachey scored 65 and 66.
Round eight – Pappy to Haas, Egan to Fogarty
Another season defining trade here. I think a lot of this aggressive trading stems from holding Nathan Brown for seven weeks in 2018 for his “two” week injury. I’m also an avid bye planner. So no firm return date, plus the likelihood of missing the upcoming bye made Pappy a trade in my mind. Especially as he’d been on a massive purple patch and skyrocketed his price making 200k. It’s the same reason I traded Fifita out a couple of weeks later. Haas had dropped in price a little, I needed a MID and there was a slight hope that he would maybe miss origin one. MID was becoming a bit of a problem position and Haas always seemed like he would be top three in his position. Egan to Fogarty was possibly more of a luxury trade, but part of the bye planning process. Egan was still playing but scoring badly and didn’t play the first bye. Fogarty had dropped in price to 577k due to his injury game and I had nearly started the year with him at 666k so was a good price and played the first bye. Haas and Fogarty both scored 62 this week. Typing this up, definitely feel kissed on the dick with my timing here.
Round nine – Croker to Walsh, O’Sullivan to Tevita Pangai.
Probably not my best trades here. They worked out reasonably well though. Croker had made cash, didn’t play the first bye and I didn’t want to miss out on Walsh. I think Walsh had even been benched. And yet I’d seen him play trials, and the coach had moved RTS to find a spot for him. This was definitely a gut over head decision and got lucky here. O’Sullivan dropped to TPJ for bye planning worked out okay.
Round ten – Fifita to Matterson
Bye planning. Fifita to miss the next three out of four to a cheap rd 13 gun. I don’t see the point in messing around trying to hold in these situations.
Round eleven – Roberts to Burton and Welch to Koro
I needed a centre with Roberts out and Peachey out for two weeks. Again a lot weren’t keen on spending the money on a centre. I wasn’t going to play short for two weeks, Burton looked set play a couple of games in the halves and play the bye, possibly make a bit of cash before selling again. Seemed like a no brainer to me, I’m surprised more didn’t jump on. Again got lucky the first week owning with a 73. Kept him all year as it turned out. Welch to Koro, pure bye planning. Koro really hadn’t shown any form though. I’d definitely make this type of trade again, but maybe try and select someone based on form rather than previous pedigree. I could have got Ipap for example, this week or any other week. He was a huge miss.
Round twelve – Schuster to Fitzgibbon, Walker to Hynes
I had people actively trying to talk me out of Schuster to Fitzgibbon. Schuster was a late out injured meaning there weren’t many choices. Some played short. The aggressive trader and bye planner in me said, Schuster doesn’t have a fixed return date, will miss this week when I can’t cover him, will miss the bye round and possibly the week after which is always a difficult round also. Three half decent scores when I would have got a zero. Job done. Backed myself here. I’m aware Schuster should have played rd 17 but I always care more about the upcoming bye rather than the following one because it’s so far in the future it’s very hard to plan for. Walker to Hynes is another one of these trades which I thought had sound logic but got lucky with exceeding my expectations. At 586k you could argue the ship has sailed with Hynes, but he looked the goods, would play the bye round (probably) and his low BE meant two weeks of 40’s would make 100k. I wasn’t chasing last weeks points, I was chasing bye round points and hoping to make a bit of cash on the side. As it turned out he scored 90 this week.
Round thirteen – Turbo to Mahoney, Simpkin to Jones.
There were just so few decent rd17 options that I would want to run home with that I’d decided to go hard at the first bye to try and make ground on the leaders. I would have preferred to trade out Teddy but he’d tanked his price. To get more bye players means selling origin players. I didn’t want to trade Haas or Cleary because they are best in position and captaincy options. And I knew Crichton wouldn’t be rested because he’d been suspended. So that left Turbo. I always intended on getting him back in (or at least whoever I thought was the best buy at the time) and I did in rd16. Mahoney a big minute hooker gun. If you’re getting someone in for the byes, forwards are best. Most bye rounds you are playing short, so you might as well be short in positions which either score less, or score inconsistently. Simpkin I’d held on the off chance he plays rd13. He didn’t so ideal trade fodder. Jones looked like he might play a few games in the 2nd row. Bye round points with a bit of cash on the side. Gold. We often talk about the 150k a cash cow needs to make. We also talk about sideways trading guns over the byes. I like to try and make my bye round sideways trades slight forwards rather than sideways. If I can get bye round points and make 80k in the process before selling, I’m cool with that. Normally I would have made three or four trades this round, but BEs meant that I had to make a couple of bye planning trades in the lead up to the bye round. I guess the strategy worked, first time in the top 100 for the year this round.
Round fourteen – Alavro to Simonsson and Mahoney to CHN
Round fourteen was where I really started trying to nail down a strategy for the byes and run home. In preseason I had stated my strategy would probably be to go hard at the first bye and then just get the best team I could, 2nd bye be damned. I would have done better if I had fully committed to this strategy. Instead I tried to balance that with as many rd17 players as I could. That means identifying as many rd13 players as I could for trading. The plan was flexible. I didn’t know who I’d be trading, it came down to who would get injured/suspended rested. Alvaro barely made it to rd13 so he was an easy out. I was set on trading Brailey but then Mahoney got injured, so an easy out. Only had him for one game, but at least it was for bye round points. Simonsson was now fullback, cheap, I needed a fullback that week and was set to play the second bye and make a bit of cash on the side, my favourite thing. Although if I remember rightly I was now thinking he would be my WFB cover for the run home and Laurie would be traded to another position. CHN was at an awkward price, but with so few rd17 options I decided he would be useful and either make cash, be playable as an 18/19th man or become fodder for post origin guns which is pretty much how it panned out until he took off someone’s head. I gained ranks this round. Having sold three of my origin guns I could field a team (had 18 in fact) where some played short. This will be important for next year too if they go back to big byes, little byes, need to be careful not to be short for the little bye while focusing too heavily on the big bye.
Round fifteen – Laurie to Averillo and Fitzgibbon to DCE
These trades look like massive knee jerk reactions. Maybe they were. Averillo scored 96 and DCE scored 122 the week before. I do remember however putting more thought into these than perhaps any other week. I was cashed up from the previous round’s trades. Laurie and Fitzgibbon were always being traded; non-keepers who were there for round 13. With DCE my feeling was, I want him in my final team, if I don’t get him now, he’ll be a lot more expensive and I might not be able to get him. I think that’s a sound enough reason? Would be interested in others thoughts. He certainly proved himself subsequently as a must have. As I said earlier if I’d committed to the best team strategy I might have got him the week before for his 122. Averillo was probably my hardest decision all year. It didn’t pan out so well. He was partnered with Wakeham and I’d been trying to ignore him. Again with so few rd17 options this guy looked good not just for a rd17 centre but looked like possibly the best rd17 option in any position (besides SJ and Harris of course). And again it was now or never for the same reason as DCE, he’d massively dropped his BE. The risk was always how long he would be paired with Wakeham in a Dogs team that chops and changes all the time. I consider this a decent punt that didn’t pay off, but I’d be interested in other opinions. It didn’t go too badly in the end.
Oh right, three trades this week – Watson to SJ
SJ was a must have for rd 17 no need for further discussion there. There was a lot of discussion as to whether Watson was a sell or not. I was pretty ruthless with rd13 players who weren’t pulling their weight. I’ll still do trades like this in the future, but one thing I’ve learned is that the game has changed in the last few years with head injuries, suspensions and restings. I usually favour a boom or bust strategy and I still will, but I probably need to keep another trade or two for the run home. My preference would be to achieve that by not wasting them in early season. And if fanhub give us extra trades next year I’ll play as aggressive as ever anyway. But yeah one extra score in a bye round doesn’t really wash if you’re playing short for two weeks or more in the run home. Something to ponder.
Round sixteen – Pangai to Turbo and Cleary to Harris
Pangai suspended and as I’ve said, whichever rd13 guns got injured/suspended would go for a rd17 player. Except at this stage I was leaning back to my just get the best team strategy and I was scared to go Turbo-less. He scored 75 but missed the next two rounds. Getting him back was obviously a good move, maybe I could have waited. I’m okay with it. Cleary was massively debated. Again, no set return date for me and during the bye period, I usually think trade. I hadn’t decided what to actually do about getting Cleary back, I think I was holding about 3-400k so as to get the benefits of his cash while leaving the door open to getting him back. Harris a no brainer. Unlucky I owned him for about 23 minutes.
Round seventeen – Harris, Jones, Simonsson to AFB, Lolo and Verills.
Harris and Simonsson injured in a week where I can be certain their replacements will play the bye makes sense. Jones too, a rd 13 cow who’s done his job. Verills a no brainer, I can’t work out why he wasn’t more popular outside of this forum. AFB was an excellent POD, put up excellent numbers at the start of the year before his injury, and MID was a difficult position, and he was cheap, surprised he was such a POD. Good trade. Lolo was hoping for a bit of a hail Mary, played the bye, previous pedigree and with such a high ceiling, only needed to hit it a few times in the run home to make it look like a good trade and MID was tricky. I’d probably do that trade again. Part of my bye strategy and overall strategy was to minimise red dots to maximise bye rounds and minimise carnage on the run home. Just too hard to deliberately have a red dot for looping. I had a red dot most weeks without trying. Therefore anyone I brought in for round 17 I wanted good job security for the run home. Verills, Simonsson (should go back to the wing even if bumped from FB) AFB, Lolo etc may not have all gunned it, but they were unlikely to be dropped.
Round eighteen - Bird to Fifita
Not the best trade but not the worst either. The plan was actually to sell Burton. I had four high priced centres in Bird, Burton, Peachey and Averillo, the plan was always to sell one of them. Bird was the only one actually playing centre and was destined to miss a game due to BBQ-gate. I figured Peachey’s MID dpp would come in handy (it certainly very much did in the last few weeks) even though he was putting up some shit numbers. Burton looked like he might be playing some halves with Cleary out. It was annoying that Bird then proceeded to score well, even moving to the back row for a bit, but I’ll give myself a pass mark here.
Round nineteen – Hynes to Douehi and Johnson to Blore
The strategy here was to free up enough funds to go a 600k odd player to Cleary with my last trade. As I said at the time, I was going balls out. I was about 400-500 points behind the leaders, I figured getting Cleary, captaining and hoping for a couple of banners would be the only hope of getting close. As it turns out saving the trades for the upcoming carnage would have worked out slightly better, but I don’t regret giving it a crack. I was carrying Moses, Fogarty and Koro but all were expected back in the next couple of weeks theoretically giving me 21 green dots to try my luck for the run home.
Round twenty – no trades
I was waiting for Cleary. I was going to trade CHN to him but Cleary was culled in the 24 hour team list so I held.
Round twenty one – Fogarty to Cleary
It became clear the Fogarty had been dropped rather than rested. Which really sucks because he was back the following week and now CHN who I was going to trade got injured. Gah. At least holding Crichton was a good decision. I had 16 for the last round which was enough to gain a few ranks in the last round.
wolfking- Fanatics Immortal
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- Post n°683
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by wolfking Tue Sep 07, 2021 5:51 pm
Milchcow wrote:
people still care about TLT for finals?
I forgot they were a thing haha.
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- Post n°684
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Camo123 Tue Sep 07, 2021 6:01 pm
Can a mod add some fancy writing to my profile that says I smashed everyone in Fantasy Fantasy 
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- Post n°685
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Jele Tue Sep 07, 2021 6:03 pm
Mulvy wrote:Finally finished. Didn't set out to make it as detailed as I did, but here we are. In summary, I got more right than I got wrong and had a lot of luck. One thing that really stood out to me during this exercise is the importance of timing. Frequently this year I would trade someone in and they would have a ceiling game that week. Someone else might have made the exact same trades as me all year but one week later and had a vastly different outcome for both score and cash generation. Fair bit of luck involved here, but good decisions need to be made nonetheless. Hope it comes across as reflective, rather than boasty. I written these for myself before, never confident enough to post them.
- Mulvy's Madness:
Starting team
Brailey
Lodge Watson Welch
Fifita Riki
Cleary Milford
Bird Roberts
Teddy Pappy Laurie
Crichton Lam Liddle Turpin
Croker Simonsson Gosi Niu
My learnings from 2019 go into quite some detail about ensuring you have a set and forget captain. This year I was heavily influenced by MS’s deep dive into Cleary’s stats and I agreed they seemed sustainable. I don’t think anyone predicted he would blow his average out of the water by 20 points but I was expecting he could continue his 70+ form. When it became clear that McInnes, Lolo and Haas (and of course CS9) weren’t an option it really became a bit of a no brainer. Cook was the only other one I considered, but with Brailey an auto pick, and Watson, Liddle, Turpin and Croker as cover I didn’t need another hooker and Cook is more of a 60’s scorer than a 70+.
For my guns I had Cleary, Crichton, Fifita, Teddy, Pappy. I got lucky that Cleary, Fifita and Pappy all fired from the start. Crichton held his own, got a bit unlucky with Teddy stumbling at the start. That’s the risk though with paying big dollars for a WFB. My thinking with Teddy is that he always gets plenty of rest over origin and is a sell. So if you don’t start with him, when do you get him in? After six weeks and then sell for the first bye? Wait until after origin? That’s a big chunk of the year without him. My plan was to start with him and sell over origin. He tanked his price, so that didn’t happen. I don’t think selecting him was a mistake per se, but I feel like I probably won’t start with him next year. I would have selected Turbo. The inconsistent nature of WFB scoring means I probably only want one gun here to start the year. Pappy was a pretty easy selection once we knew he was GK. I’ll probably pick him next year too with his bench starts reducing his average.
Most of the other selections were fine. We’ve spoken about Lam vs Townsend already. Bird and Roberts were cheap. My bottom four were vomit worthy but were all cheap and starting. Welch went well, but BS9 would have been heaps better. It’s easy to say in hindsight, but we knew in advance that BS9 is built for fantasy, and played the first bye. Selecting him gives you a chance of that upside. Selecting Welch was possibly safer, he wouldn’t find himself on the bench with a 35-40 min role, but was unlikely to have a lot of upside. Selecting BS9 would have put myself in a position to get lucky, which is indeed what happened for owners and it wasn’t just in hindsight that this was evident. Honey Badger for example called it in preseason.
Milf started well but then got dropped which was predictable. He’s another one I could have got Townsend instead. Very important to look for role changes particularly halves being paired with a new partner who is not a noted kicker.
Round two – Lodge to Alvaro
Alvaro vs Leniu was this years Host vs Lawrie. They both score a point per minute. It seemed to me that Alvaro was set to play 40 minutes and Leniu 35. And Alvaro was cheaper. Simple as that. Even though Leniu will probably be a better player. Whilst I think I made the right decision, I have to say, Leniu owners got pretty damn unlucky.
Round three – Simonsson to Schuster and Turpin to Egan (Edited – I put the wrong trade down earlier)
Simonsson looked pretty ordinary, his stats weren’t great in the first place and Raiders seem to always shift the ball the other way. Schuster looked the goods and had lowered his BE playing most of the previous game in the second row off the bench through injury and seemed like a must have cash cow. Good trade. I think a lot of what I did well this year was my attitude of “let’s not fuck around, just do it”. That led to my bringing in of cash cows like Schuster, Walker, SOS, Simpkin early. Unfortunately it also led to my next trade of Turpin to Egan. Terrible trade. I should have seen with foresight that trading one mediocre hooker from a mediocre side to another mediocre hooker from another mediocre side was sideways as fuck. Backwards in fact in this case. I need more patience here in early season with green dots. Quickly cutting duds and injured players has served me well and I will keep playing aggressively, but Turpin wasn’t even going that badly. I need to save a couple of these dud trades so I can play aggressively over the byes which gives more bang for buck.
Round four – Gosieski to O’Sullivan and Lam to Walker
I got lucky here. Pretty sure I was going to trade Croker instead of Gosi, but from memory Gosi was benched in the one hour final team lists so I reversed trades and kept Croker which obviously turned out well. Lam was injured so a no brainer trade out. As I said above getting those guys (SOS and Walker) in quickly was key to making quick cash and not letting the duds/injuries pile up. I remember having a discussion about that with Booze et al, he pointed out how he was always a week ahead when everyone was debating whether to bring in these guys, and I was in the same boat. It means that for me SOS was a half decent result and made some cash. Whilst you don’t miss too much cash by waiting a week, you may miss an opportunity when the following week you have other fires to put out. Trading hard the first weeks to get right cash cows is something I’ll keep doing, but I’ll revisit how hard I go at it if there are changes to the rules and squad sizes.
Round five – No trades. I had 21 green dots and as already outlined I’d been aggressively collecting cash cows.
Round six – Riki to Moses and Liddle to Simpkin
Riki was benched. He’d made some cash and no one knew how many minutes he’d play and Moses, a rd13 gun had dropped in price due to his (?) concussion game. No time to fuck around, just do it. Moses scored 73. Liddle was dropped and there were big wraps on Simpkin. I don’t need to wait a week to see a base price starting hooker. Neary all of them would make money.
Round seven – Niu to Peachey and Milford to Turbo
Possibly my best trades of the year. A lot of people were against paying 565k for a centre but Niu was dropped and we had no idea when he’d be back. Meanwhile I’m playing James Roberts who was putting up teens. I was starting to bye plan at this stage and figured Peachey could give me some reliable scoring off the bench, and in rd 13 should start at lock for big minutes with Tino in origin. It allowed Roberts to go to my reserves as cover. I waited a week to see if Milf looked likely to return, but with no news I decided grab Turbo at 503k. I had waited a week to see his hamstrings get through a game and knew I had to have him. It felt weird because it meant Laurie was now out of the 17 but my gut said I needed Turbo before his price got out of reach. I also knew I’d probably have to play Laurie half the time anyway, there always seems to be someone out. This is the first week Pappy was out too, so it gave me someone solid I could play. Turbo and Peachey scored 65 and 66.
Round eight – Pappy to Haas, Egan to Fogarty
Another season defining trade here. I think a lot of this aggressive trading stems from holding Nathan Brown for seven weeks in 2018 for his “two” week injury. I’m also an avid bye planner. So no firm return date, plus the likelihood of missing the upcoming bye made Pappy a trade in my mind. Especially as he’d been on a massive purple patch and skyrocketed his price making 200k. It’s the same reason I traded Fifita out a couple of weeks later. Haas had dropped in price a little, I needed a MID and there was a slight hope that he would maybe miss origin one. MID was becoming a bit of a problem position and Haas always seemed like he would be top three in his position. Egan to Fogarty was possibly more of a luxury trade, but part of the bye planning process. Egan was still playing but scoring badly and didn’t play the first bye. Fogarty had dropped in price to 577k due to his injury game and I had nearly started the year with him at 666k so was a good price and played the first bye. Haas and Fogarty both scored 62 this week. Typing this up, definitely feel kissed on the dick with my timing here.
Round nine – Croker to Walsh, O’Sullivan to Tevita Pangai.
Probably not my best trades here. They worked out reasonably well though. Croker had made cash, didn’t play the first bye and I didn’t want to miss out on Walsh. I think Walsh had even been benched. And yet I’d seen him play trials, and the coach had moved RTS to find a spot for him. This was definitely a gut over head decision and got lucky here. O’Sullivan dropped to TPJ for bye planning worked out okay.
Round ten – Fifita to Matterson
Bye planning. Fifita to miss the next three out of four to a cheap rd 13 gun. I don’t see the point in messing around trying to hold in these situations.
Round eleven – Roberts to Burton and Welch to Koro
I needed a centre with Roberts out and Peachey out for two weeks. Again a lot weren’t keen on spending the money on a centre. I wasn’t going to play short for two weeks, Burton looked set play a couple of games in the halves and play the bye, possibly make a bit of cash before selling again. Seemed like a no brainer to me, I’m surprised more didn’t jump on. Again got lucky the first week owning with a 73. Kept him all year as it turned out. Welch to Koro, pure bye planning. Koro really hadn’t shown any form though. I’d definitely make this type of trade again, but maybe try and select someone based on form rather than previous pedigree. I could have got Ipap for example, this week or any other week. He was a huge miss.
Round twelve – Schuster to Fitzgibbon, Walker to Hynes
I had people actively trying to talk me out of Schuster to Fitzgibbon. Schuster was a late out injured meaning there weren’t many choices. Some played short. The aggressive trader and bye planner in me said, Schuster doesn’t have a fixed return date, will miss this week when I can’t cover him, will miss the bye round and possibly the week after which is always a difficult round also. Three half decent scores when I would have got a zero. Job done. Backed myself here. I’m aware Schuster should have played rd 17 but I always care more about the upcoming bye rather than the following one because it’s so far in the future it’s very hard to plan for. Walker to Hynes is another one of these trades which I thought had sound logic but got lucky with exceeding my expectations. At 586k you could argue the ship has sailed with Hynes, but he looked the goods, would play the bye round (probably) and his low BE meant two weeks of 40’s would make 100k. I wasn’t chasing last weeks points, I was chasing bye round points and hoping to make a bit of cash on the side. As it turned out he scored 90 this week.
Round thirteen – Turbo to Mahoney, Simpkin to Jones.
There were just so few decent rd17 options that I would want to run home with that I’d decided to go hard at the first bye to try and make ground on the leaders. I would have preferred to trade out Teddy but he’d tanked his price. To get more bye players means selling origin players. I didn’t want to trade Haas or Cleary because they are best in position and captaincy options. And I knew Crichton wouldn’t be rested because he’d been suspended. So that left Turbo. I always intended on getting him back in (or at least whoever I thought was the best buy at the time) and I did in rd16. Mahoney a big minute hooker gun. If you’re getting someone in for the byes, forwards are best. Most bye rounds you are playing short, so you might as well be short in positions which either score less, or score inconsistently. Simpkin I’d held on the off chance he plays rd13. He didn’t so ideal trade fodder. Jones looked like he might play a few games in the 2nd row. Bye round points with a bit of cash on the side. Gold. We often talk about the 150k a cash cow needs to make. We also talk about sideways trading guns over the byes. I like to try and make my bye round sideways trades slight forwards rather than sideways. If I can get bye round points and make 80k in the process before selling, I’m cool with that. Normally I would have made three or four trades this round, but BEs meant that I had to make a couple of bye planning trades in the lead up to the bye round. I guess the strategy worked, first time in the top 100 for the year this round.
Round fourteen – Alavro to Simonsson and Mahoney to CHN
Round fourteen was where I really started trying to nail down a strategy for the byes and run home. In preseason I had stated my strategy would probably be to go hard at the first bye and then just get the best team I could, 2nd bye be damned. I would have done better if I had fully committed to this strategy. Instead I tried to balance that with as many rd17 players as I could. That means identifying as many rd13 players as I could for trading. The plan was flexible. I didn’t know who I’d be trading, it came down to who would get injured/suspended rested. Alvaro barely made it to rd13 so he was an easy out. I was set on trading Brailey but then Mahoney got injured, so an easy out. Only had him for one game, but at least it was for bye round points. Simonsson was now fullback, cheap, I needed a fullback that week and was set to play the second bye and make a bit of cash on the side, my favourite thing. Although if I remember rightly I was now thinking he would be my WFB cover for the run home and Laurie would be traded to another position. CHN was at an awkward price, but with so few rd17 options I decided he would be useful and either make cash, be playable as an 18/19th man or become fodder for post origin guns which is pretty much how it panned out until he took off someone’s head. I gained ranks this round. Having sold three of my origin guns I could field a team (had 18 in fact) where some played short. This will be important for next year too if they go back to big byes, little byes, need to be careful not to be short for the little bye while focusing too heavily on the big bye.
Round fifteen – Laurie to Averillo and Fitzgibbon to DCE
These trades look like massive knee jerk reactions. Maybe they were. Averillo scored 96 and DCE scored 122 the week before. I do remember however putting more thought into these than perhaps any other week. I was cashed up from the previous round’s trades. Laurie and Fitzgibbon were always being traded; non-keepers who were there for round 13. With DCE my feeling was, I want him in my final team, if I don’t get him now, he’ll be a lot more expensive and I might not be able to get him. I think that’s a sound enough reason? Would be interested in others thoughts. He certainly proved himself subsequently as a must have. As I said earlier if I’d committed to the best team strategy I might have got him the week before for his 122. Averillo was probably my hardest decision all year. It didn’t pan out so well. He was partnered with Wakeham and I’d been trying to ignore him. Again with so few rd17 options this guy looked good not just for a rd17 centre but looked like possibly the best rd17 option in any position (besides SJ and Harris of course). And again it was now or never for the same reason as DCE, he’d massively dropped his BE. The risk was always how long he would be paired with Wakeham in a Dogs team that chops and changes all the time. I consider this a decent punt that didn’t pay off, but I’d be interested in other opinions. It didn’t go too badly in the end.
Oh right, three trades this week – Watson to SJ
SJ was a must have for rd 17 no need for further discussion there. There was a lot of discussion as to whether Watson was a sell or not. I was pretty ruthless with rd13 players who weren’t pulling their weight. I’ll still do trades like this in the future, but one thing I’ve learned is that the game has changed in the last few years with head injuries, suspensions and restings. I usually favour a boom or bust strategy and I still will, but I probably need to keep another trade or two for the run home. My preference would be to achieve that by not wasting them in early season. And if fanhub give us extra trades next year I’ll play as aggressive as ever anyway. But yeah one extra score in a bye round doesn’t really wash if you’re playing short for two weeks or more in the run home. Something to ponder.
Round sixteen – Pangai to Turbo and Cleary to Harris
Pangai suspended and as I’ve said, whichever rd13 guns got injured/suspended would go for a rd17 player. Except at this stage I was leaning back to my just get the best team strategy and I was scared to go Turbo-less. He scored 75 but missed the next two rounds. Getting him back was obviously a good move, maybe I could have waited. I’m okay with it. Cleary was massively debated. Again, no set return date for me and during the bye period, I usually think trade. I hadn’t decided what to actually do about getting Cleary back, I think I was holding about 3-400k so as to get the benefits of his cash while leaving the door open to getting him back. Harris a no brainer. Unlucky I owned him for about 23 minutes.
Round seventeen – Harris, Jones, Simonsson to AFB, Lolo and Verills.
Harris and Simonsson injured in a week where I can be certain their replacements will play the bye makes sense. Jones too, a rd 13 cow who’s done his job. Verills a no brainer, I can’t work out why he wasn’t more popular outside of this forum. AFB was an excellent POD, put up excellent numbers at the start of the year before his injury, and MID was a difficult position, and he was cheap, surprised he was such a POD. Good trade. Lolo was hoping for a bit of a hail Mary, played the bye, previous pedigree and with such a high ceiling, only needed to hit it a few times in the run home to make it look like a good trade and MID was tricky. I’d probably do that trade again. Part of my bye strategy and overall strategy was to minimise red dots to maximise bye rounds and minimise carnage on the run home. Just too hard to deliberately have a red dot for looping. I had a red dot most weeks without trying. Therefore anyone I brought in for round 17 I wanted good job security for the run home. Verills, Simonsson (should go back to the wing even if bumped from FB) AFB, Lolo etc may not have all gunned it, but they were unlikely to be dropped.
Round eighteen - Bird to Fifita
Not the best trade but not the worst either. The plan was actually to sell Burton. I had four high priced centres in Bird, Burton, Peachey and Averillo, the plan was always to sell one of them. Bird was the only one actually playing centre and was destined to miss a game due to BBQ-gate. I figured Peachey’s MID dpp would come in handy (it certainly very much did in the last few weeks) even though he was putting up some shit numbers. Burton looked like he might be playing some halves with Cleary out. It was annoying that Bird then proceeded to score well, even moving to the back row for a bit, but I’ll give myself a pass mark here.
Round nineteen – Hynes to Douehi and Johnson to Blore
The strategy here was to free up enough funds to go a 600k odd player to Cleary with my last trade. As I said at the time, I was going balls out. I was about 400-500 points behind the leaders, I figured getting Cleary, captaining and hoping for a couple of banners would be the only hope of getting close. As it turns out saving the trades for the upcoming carnage would have worked out slightly better, but I don’t regret giving it a crack. I was carrying Moses, Fogarty and Koro but all were expected back in the next couple of weeks theoretically giving me 21 green dots to try my luck for the run home.
Round twenty – no trades
I was waiting for Cleary. I was going to trade CHN to him but Cleary was culled in the 24 hour team list so I held.
Round twenty one – Fogarty to Cleary
It became clear the Fogarty had been dropped rather than rested. Which really sucks because he was back the following week and now CHN who I was going to trade got injured. Gah. At least holding Crichton was a good decision. I had 16 for the last round which was enough to gain a few ranks in the last round.
Not boasty at all mate. Thanks for writing it down. Out of curiosity how many players did you have left when you made your last trade (in rd 21)? did you play short in any other rounds than the last one?
StuDogg101- Posts : 4359
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- Post n°686
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by StuDogg101 Tue Sep 07, 2021 6:24 pm
Camo123 wrote:Can a mod add some fancy writing to my profile that says I smashed everyone in Fantasy Fantasy
Just write it in capital letters in the Rank box on your profile lol
Honeysett- Moderator
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- Post n°687
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Honeysett Tue Sep 07, 2021 6:25 pm
Camo123 wrote:Can a mod add some fancy writing to my profile that says I smashed everyone in Fantasy Fantasy
Can and will Camo.
Anyone else need their stuff updated?
I've done mine... Being Mod Champion x3 and all.
multiple.scoregasms- Fanatic
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- Post n°688
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by multiple.scoregasms Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:16 pm
Honeysett wrote:
Can and will Camo.
Anyone else need their stuff updated?
I've done mine... Being Mod Champion x3 and all.
Mattnz needs one for winning historical know your shitto last year. In a couple of weeks there will be a 2nd champion
Fortitude- Posts : 4623
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- Post n°689
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Fortitude Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:27 pm
Camo123 wrote:Can a mod add some fancy writing to my profile that says I smashed everyone in Fantasy Fantasy
Is winning L9 and wanting the recognition kinda like being a marque player at the tigers?
I want my recognition
13CokeHeads- Posts : 964
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- Post n°690
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by 13CokeHeads Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:48 pm
Chewie wrote:Ray Stone at hooker may be better than Lussick
I don't think his passing is that great... might see him take the first 20 mins and Smith play against tired fowards
Honeysett- Moderator
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- Post n°691
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Honeysett Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:08 pm
Fortitude wrote:
Is winning L9 and wanting the recognition kinda like being a marque player at the tigers?
I want my recognition
I'll get back to you on the answer if the Tigers ever sign a marquee player.
Done.
Teeth Eater- Posts : 4827
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- Post n°692
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Teeth Eater Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:00 pm
Rabbits21 wrote:Well done to the Parra fan that won the Fanatics tipping comp! I’m happy to come in 4th place.
Haha, thanks mate. That was actually me. Thanks to Code Delta for pointing it out to me. Might have been a dud year in Fantasy for me, but did okay in tipping to make up for it. About 1% as satisfying as Fantasy success, but I'll embrace it with both arms.
Cookie Monster- Moderator
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- Post n°693
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Cookie Monster Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:09 pm
Honeysett wrote:
Can and will Camo.
Anyone else need their stuff updated?
I've done mine... Being Mod Champion x3 and all.
If you're doing it for Camo, then I guess WT2K might want it as well for winning Fantasy Fantasy in 2020
filthridden- Moderator
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by filthridden Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:16 pm
I might update mine to say under-13s player of the year 1994.
Rabbits21- Fanatic
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- Post n°695
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Rabbits21 Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:17 pm
Well done mate great stuff.Teeth Eater wrote:
Haha, thanks mate. That was actually me. Thanks to Code Delta for pointing it out to me. Might have been a dud year in Fantasy for me, but did okay in tipping to make up for it. About 1% as satisfying as Fantasy success, but I'll embrace it with both arms.
Mulvy- Moderator
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- Post n°696
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Mulvy Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:46 pm
Honeysett wrote:
Can and will Camo.
Anyone else need their stuff updated?
I've done mine... Being Mod Champion x3 and all.
Wait, is that three now?!!
standard-issue- Moderator
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- Post n°697
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by standard-issue Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:57 pm
filthridden wrote:I might update mine to say under-13s player of the year 1994.
I was runner up in Best Winger category 1990. It's irrelevant that there are only 2 Wingers, that's as legitimate a 2nd as any other!
standard-issue- Moderator
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by standard-issue Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:58 pm
Cookie Monster wrote:Honeysett wrote:
Can and will Camo.
Anyone else need their stuff updated?
I've done mine... Being Mod Champion x3 and all.
If you're doing it for Camo, then I guess WT2K might want it as well for winning Fantasy Fantasy in 2020
That avatar
Cookie Monster- Moderator
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- Post n°699
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Cookie Monster Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:14 pm
standard-issue wrote:
That avatar
Yeah, it cracked me up when I first saw it.
It's part of a series by Australian artist, Ben Frost. This one is amusing but his epinephrine and adderall ones are hilarious.
https://verticalgallery.com/products/ben-frost-adrenalize-1
https://www.reddit.com/r/UrbanArtReleases/comments/hey5sn/ben_frost_speedy_on_adderall/
Revraiser- Fanatic
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- Post n°700
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 90 - Take a shot every time live ladder is said
by Revraiser Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:36 pm
Well and truly rogered my fantasy season. But I will be back.
