NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:So here is a question I have been pondering? Could we expect McInnes to play 80 at lock? He has certainly got it in him. If he does, I am going to have to get him in my team somehow.

I haven't looked at the stats to answer this question. He plays 80 all the time and barely looks tired. That fit, wiry guy who is made for the classic Rugby League. Hookers are ball players. The new mobile locks are ball playing locks. He'll be all of them. He's played 80 whether lock or hooker at the Dragons and it doesn't really affect his quality imo.

I have NFI how he will be used at the Sharks but if you're considering an alternative captain, I think he'd have to play 80. As others have pointed out, there's some quality middles now at the Sharks. I could see a role where he plays 70 min in the middle, on average 60 at lock at 10 at hooker. Who knows?

Mulvy wrote:

I kinda agree with this, but I don't see why it would be a disaster to start without Starling? Wait and see? I mean, if he's starting everyone will get him. If he's bench and I start without him to wait and see his role and he gets limited minutes like most bench hookers (I know things are changing), then all good. If he gets the 50 minutes role, his price won't skyrocket and if I choose, after a couple/few weeks, I trade him in for whichever dud I picked/injured/coviddddedded guy.

I suspect though, that by the time a football is kicked in anger, that all of this debate will be moot anyway.

I'm not sure that teams can load up on Hookers like they normally would. Everyone will have Randall, a number will have one of Cook, Grant or Clarke.

Not sure there is room for a 3rd hooker unless you already have Cotter who can also play MID, because most teams are also loading up on halves (typically around 5 of Cleary, Burton, Ilias, Clune, Amone, Hastings, Trindall, Hynes, Sexton, Mann etc), which means team balance is thrown out if you had 2 hookers and 2 halves on your interchange, while also needing sufficient cover for WFB, CTR (most dual WFB/CTR will cost around $350k, so are expensive for reserves that typically wont play), as well as cover for both MID and EDG, (where all the duals are more expensive again, starting at around $450k).

Given that Lolo played an average of just 2 less minutes per game last season, but had a PPM that was 0.2 lower, do you think that his lower output can be primarily attributed to playing injured for most of the season? Leaning towards having him in my side again.

mattnz wrote:

I'm not sure that teams can load up on Hookers like they normally would. Everyone will have Randall, a number will have one of Cook, Grant or Clarke.

Not sure there is room for a 3rd hooker unless you already have Cotter who can also play MID, because most teams are also loading up on halves (typically around 5 of Cleary, Burton, Ilias, Clune, Amone, Hastings, Trindall, Hynes, Sexton, Mann etc), which means team balance is thrown out if you had 2 hookers and 2 halves on your interchange, while also needing sufficient cover for WFB, CTR (most dual WFB/CTR will cost around $350k, so are expensive for reserves that typically wont play), as well as cover for both MID and EDG, (where all the duals are more expensive again, starting at around $450k).

There's always room for a third hooker Doesn't mean I have to start with three of them. I trade assertively for the first few weeks and I can bring in someone I missed in any position, for my dud/injured guy.

I think there's a really good chance you're right about Starling, but I don't think I lose too much by waiting and watching, and then trading my dud to him after a couple of weeks if he proves must have status.

Jaxson Paulo leading the race for the left centre spot at Souths would get CTR/WFB DPP and price is 327k he’s worth a shout I think if he looks good in trials.

mattnz wrote:Given that Lolo played an average of just 2 less minutes per game last season, but had a PPM that was 0.2 lower, do you think that his lower output can be primarily attributed to playing injured for most of the season? Leaning towards having him in my side again.

At a similar price point in fact 32k cheaper I prefer Welch especially for his offloading ability.

mattnz wrote:Given that Lolo played an average of just 2 less minutes per game last season, but had a PPM that was 0.2 lower, do you think that his lower output can be primarily attributed to playing injured for most of the season? Leaning towards having him in my side again.

I think so yes. Three broken hands. Not only would it affect your ability to play football, it must knock the confidence, especially while your team is being belted most of the time. I expect an uptick in performance both real and in fantasy. Not sure by how much though. Plays first bye. I'm looking forward to the trials. Eye test will help I think.

mattnz wrote:

I'm not sure that teams can load up on Hookers like they normally would. Everyone will have Randall, a number will have one of Cook, Grant or Clarke.

Not sure there is room for a 3rd hooker unless you already have Cotter who can also play MID, because most teams are also loading up on halves (typically around 5 of Cleary, Burton, Ilias, Clune, Amone, Hastings, Trindall, Hynes, Sexton, Mann etc), which means team balance is thrown out if you had 2 hookers and 2 halves on your interchange, while also needing sufficient cover for WFB, CTR (most dual WFB/CTR will cost around $350k, so are expensive for reserves that typically wont play), as well as cover for both MID and EDG, (where all the duals are more expensive again, starting at around $450k).

So who did Segeyaro end up signing with ?

Rooster Booster wrote:

So who did Segeyaro end up signing with ?

Manly apparently

https://www.zerotackle.com/potential-club-revealed-for-james-segeyaro-113378/

If true it may throw Dylan Walker's role out of whack for those who are relying on his DPP and end-of-season scoring from last year

mattnz wrote:

I'm not sure that teams can load up on Hookers like they normally would. Everyone will have Randall, a number will have one of Cook, Grant or Clarke.

Not sure there is room for a 3rd hooker unless you already have Cotter who can also play MID, because most teams are also loading up on halves (typically around 5 of Cleary, Burton, Ilias, Clune, Amone, Hastings, Trindall, Hynes, Sexton, Mann etc), which means team balance is thrown out if you had 2 hookers and 2 halves on your interchange, while also needing sufficient cover for WFB, CTR (most dual WFB/CTR will cost around $350k, so are expensive for reserves that typically wont play), as well as cover for both MID and EDG, (where all the duals are more expensive again, starting at around $450k).

Is there much value at half? I don't see it. Have 3 or 4 currently.

As well as the KM scoring change, the real-life rule change of penalties instead of six-agains at own end is going to reduce KMs by another couple of points.

Cleary is Cleary, but I'd expect him to regress a bit given both that and the fact that last year was peak for the Panthers. (Still will likely be highest scorer in the game, 95% locked in if starting unless I try to get fancy.)

Ilias, yes, an obvious pick at that price. Amone too if he starts, which isn't guaranteed.

Don't see it with Clune. Might make a little, might be another Kane Elgey. Similarly Hastings... can always jump on if he looks the goods with BE 38 but nowhere near a slam dunk and Douehi possibly back soon. Wouldn't put my faith in the Tigers halves having masterminded a winning run forcing him to centre on his return.

Burton is in and out of my squad. Want to see if he has goalkicking, and also the Dogs have a *horrible* schedule for attacking stats pre-bye. Would still be a certainty if there weren't so many moneymaking centres around, but marginal now.

Would kind of love to have Hynes, but again would want goalkicking, for him to be playing with Moylan, and for him to show he has a decent kicking game (which we never saw at Storm). Waiting for trials.

Looking down the whole list of halves there's only Ilias and Amone where I go "ooh, ten points of value there". You definitely don't want six of them in your squad.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Is there much value at half? I don't see it. Have 3 or 4 currently.

As well as the KM scoring change, the real-life rule change of penalties instead of six-agains at own end is going to reduce KMs by another couple of points.

Cleary is Cleary, but I'd expect him to regress a bit given both that and the fact that last year was peak for the Panthers. (Still will likely be highest scorer in the game, 95% locked in if starting unless I try to get fancy.)

Ilias, yes, an obvious pick at that price. Amone too if he starts, which isn't guaranteed.

Don't see it with Clune. Might make a little, might be another Kane Elgey. Similarly Hastings... can always jump on if he looks the goods with BE 38 but nowhere near a slam dunk and Douehi possibly back soon. Wouldn't put my faith in the Tigers halves having masterminded a winning run forcing him to centre on his return.

Burton is in and out of my squad. Want to see if he has goalkicking, and also the Dogs have a *horrible* schedule for attacking stats pre-bye. Would still be a certainty if there weren't so many moneymaking centres around, but marginal now.

Would kind of love to have Hynes, but again would want goalkicking, for him to be playing with Moylan, and for him to show he has a decent kicking game (which we never saw at Storm). Waiting for trials.

Looking down the whole list of halves there's only Ilias and Amone where I go "ooh, ten points of value there". You definitely don't want six of them in your squad.

Yeah Ilias and Amone are the only cheap halves i'm looking at and not even sure I want Ilias in my starting 17.
Im sticking to the cheap ctr strategy but deciding between Burton and Hynes to partner Cleary. Im leaning towards Hynes as I like the wfb dual

Anyway to find out 2021 rankings?

mattnz wrote:

Agree, the interesting thing for me is that in that period where he was consistently getting 50+ minutes per game, Hodgson was playing 80 minutes, so it isn't a matter of reducing Hodgson's role, just getting more ball players on the park, the way that other teams are doing with locks coming on for similar timeframes like Peachey, Dylan Walker, Watson and Mann.

Curious to see if this kind of role was due to the point in the season we were at.

Early days the big boys are fit and firing so they are ready to physically dominate any of the smaller ball playing forwards sniffing around. At this point of the year the only real small middle to hold his own was Watson and even he was brought off the bench rather than starting. As the season went on and the big middles tired we started to see more of these smaller guys get minutes at lock.

With a full preseason + slightly less 6 agains (more penalties) the big boys will be ready to rip in longer and potentially nulify the smaller middles

Milchcow wrote:

Do they have inside knowledge, as the kennel seems to think it will be Hetherington or RFM

Both Hetherington and RFM are much better players as well.

If mad Jack could cut the crap from his game he would be on the fringes of rep selection

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:I have been having a look at Papali's stats. He played 6 games below 60 minutes last year. Two were in R1 & R2 before they realised how much of an asset he was. Two were when he started at PROP to replace Campbell Gillard when he was out. So I would expect that for the coming year, especially with all the other bench MIDs about, he will continue to start on the EDG and maybe do 10-15 minutes at MID when Carty comes on.

Under a 60+ minute scenario, he averaged over 71 last year, which is closer to what I would expect this year. He is DPP and while he has not been reported as training the house down, he has been reported as staking his claim for another big year

Probably last year in the Eels premiership window so I expect them to come out of the gate firing. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see IPap fly out of the gates again

[quote="Hastings... can always jump on if he looks the goods with BE 38 but nowhere near a slam dunk and Douehi possibly back soon. Wouldn't put my faith in the Tigers halves having masterminded a winning run forcing him to centre on his return."]

Earlier this week McGuire said Douehi due back round 10. Source Daily Telegraph

What teams are we expecting to under perform expectations this year?

For me it's the Titans. They seem to be trying to build in a similar way to Panthers success (young playmakers brought through academy) but look more like 2020 Broncos to me. The spine is simply too inexperienced to grind out enough wins for a top 8 team. Brimson is definitely the best player in the spine and is playing out of position. Proctor on the downswing + Fifita and Tino not yet true on field leaders. Liu will be a good locker room signing to help with leadership but I don't think it's enough. They are lacking the James Tamou/Api Koroisau signing that pushed the Panthers over the top

multiple.scoregasms wrote:What teams are we expecting to under perform expectations this year?

For me it's the Titans. They seem to be trying to build in a similar way to Panthers success (young playmakers brought through academy) but look more like 2020 Broncos to me. The spine is simply too inexperienced to grind out enough wins for a top 8 team. Brimson is definitely the best player in the spine and is playing out of position. Proctor on the downswing + Fifita and Tino not yet true on field leaders. Liu will be a good locker room signing to help with leadership but I don't think it's enough. They are lacking the James Tamou/Api Koroisau signing that pushed the Panthers over the top

Broncos 2020 is a fair comparison imo.

Fogarty isn't super talented but he was probably their most important player in terms of leadership. Their hooker has gone from average to less than average.

If they get in a rut it will be hard to get out of. They really need a fast start to the season.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:What teams are we expecting to under perform expectations this year?

For me it's the Titans. They seem to be trying to build in a similar way to Panthers success (young playmakers brought through academy) but look more like 2020 Broncos to me. The spine is simply too inexperienced to grind out enough wins for a top 8 team. Brimson is definitely the best player in the spine and is playing out of position. Proctor on the downswing + Fifita and Tino not yet true on field leaders. Liu will be a good locker room signing to help with leadership but I don't think it's enough. They are lacking the James Tamou/Api Koroisau signing that pushed the Panthers over the top

I agree, their spine is the least experienced and could be the worst in the comp, at least at this stage of their careers:
- Sexton has 4 games in first grade
- Brimson has 17 games in the halves, and is a much better fullback
- Clarke is a below average starting hooker with just 11 games starting
- Campbell is talented, but has only played 6 games

They would need Fifita to have a Turbo season and put the team on his back.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:What teams are we expecting to under perform expectations this year?

They are lacking the James Tamou/Api Koroisau signing that pushed the Panthers over the top

You must have very high expectations for Tigers next season. I am impressed with their recent recruiting