NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 16 - That's a Starling Choice

Amone --> Thompson, Tuilagi --> Mad Jack is just a little too perfect!

ytsb wrote:Amone --> Thompson, Tuilagi --> Mad Jack is just a little too perfect!

What scoring are you expecting from Jack, that you aren't getting from Tuilagi? Looks way too sideways to me.
Tuilagi had an 18 with an HIA in 51 minutes
Jack had a 19 including a sin bin in 70 minutes, which is likely a regular occurrence for him

Here's a summary of cashcows that people have talked about buying this week.  I had a look at what they need to score to make the mystical $150k profit figure.  I've put the summary in the table below.  

I also had a look at how much their price grows and how quickly it grows based on an assumed score each week going forward.  
For example:
> if Ming scores 35 every week going forward his price will ultimately increase by $136k.  But $114k of that happens in the next 3 weeks.
> By contrast, if Startling scores 45 every week he will ultimately go up $172k.  But only $77k in the first 3 weeks.

For this purpose, I used a magic number of 13,500.  This is lower than the current magic number (I think Milchcow said it was just shy of 13,900), but usually the magic number falls pretty quickly early in the season. So I figured this lower MN may be more reasonable for forward looking calcs.

Table:

Apparently Tyran Wishart lives with Harry Grant, so good chance he gets ruled out this week too with Covid protocols

mattnz wrote:
Its not just DSaf and Klem that come into it. Barnett is a big minute MID, who is now starting EDG with Fitz out for a few weeks. Totally changes the bench rotations and minutes expectations.
Week 1 - Barnett 48 mins off the bench
Week 2 - Barnett 72 minutes as starting prop, with Fitz injured after 38 minutes. He already had a first stint of 30 minutes at prop.

All you're proving there is that the Knights bench middles got extra minutes last week because one of their props played half the game at second row.

Basically this week (if no in-game injuries) you've got Crossland and Jirah picking up any Mann/Randall minutes between them and Croker/Thompson being the 3 and 4 props covering the 1 and 2 of the Saifitis. Depends how long you think the brothers will last, but somewhere between 40 and 60 minutes between them. I doubt Thompson will be playing anything like 38 minutes unless an injury intervenes (as it did last week when Barnett did not play 72 minutes as "starting prop", he played 42 minutes on the edge, leaving more prop minutes for Thompson and Croker. If you think Barnett is a "big minute starting prop", then what is DSaf?

And that's before we talk about Klemmer coming back. How much does Thompson make in 3-4 weeks?

WT2K wrote:Rumours that Franklin Pele has signed with WT for 23

Makes a lot of sense. He is buried in the depth chart at Sharks

rhinoceroo wrote:Leo Thompson: passes eye test BUT

Week 1: DSaf out
Week 2: Klemmer and DSaf out (Fitz injured in game)
Week 3+: Klemmer out

Week 1: 25 minutes, 15 points
Week 2: 38 minutes, 43 points
Week 3: ???

I'd suggest role/scoring would be closer to W1 than W2

My view on Leo
Pre week 1: This lad has trained the house down in pre-season let's give him a debut and see how he goes.
WK1: 25mins not bad, get those jitters out
WK2: 38mins solid performance, handled himself well
WK3: 30+ mins and score a try

Milchcow wrote:

Apparently Tyran Wishart lives with Harry Grant, so good chance he gets ruled out this week too with Covid protocols

That is surprisingly dumb risk management from the Storm.

In round 4 2021 Mahoney scored 75 v the Storm.

We can't even use Tuilagi as a loop this week cause he plays the 6pm friday game smh

mattnz wrote:
What scoring are you expecting from Jack, that you aren't getting from Tuilagi? Looks way too sideways to me.
Tuilagi had an 18 with an HIA in 51 minutes
Jack had a 19 including a sin bin in 70 minutes, which is likely a regular occurrence for him

I'm insane with nothing to lose Matt. I'll probably go with safer options to be honest. Tuilagi is a disgrace though let's be real.

ytsb wrote:

Rhino you might just be a super genius.

Tell me that after he clotheslines the opposition centre after ten minutes.

Leo is 250k. Let him score his 30-35 points for the next 4 weeks, make 100k and flick him in to the next cheapie that pops up.

In the meantime put the cash ya made in ya piggy bank and spend it on Cleary.

mattnz wrote:
What scoring are you expecting from Jack, that you aren't getting from Tuilagi? Looks way too sideways to me.
Tuilagi had an 18 with an HIA in 51 minutes
Jack had a 19 including a sin bin in 70 minutes, which is likely a regular occurrence for him

Tbf to the mad lad, that sin bin was a "team" binning for offside at the play the ball that just happened to be Jack, so using the selective approach to stats, I'm calling it a 26 in 70 minutes and he'd have scored a try in that lost 10.

mattnz wrote:
They almost won when he came off the field.

In that 10 minutes, they scored 2 tries and a field goal after doing nothing all game.

Coach will think he is a genius for hooking the 30 year old.

mattnz wrote:In case anyone missed it, Paulo is back on his old wing this week. Is a trade out.

Ok, so Cook and Paulo are not in your fantasy team, good to know.

Milchcow wrote:

Apparently Tyran Wishart lives with Harry Grant, so good chance he gets ruled out this week too with Covid protocols

JNIk?

Some great analysis of the cash gen potential for Leo. Puts a spanner in the works in my Yeo trade plans. Starling & Leo seem pretty obvious choices to rid your team of dud cows and get some coin gen going. Question is, how much money is it worth to lose serious points from a reliable gun like Yeo?

rhinoceroo wrote:

Tell me that after he clotheslines the opposition centre after ten minutes.

I'll wait a week on the mad fella. Can't get Thompson and Starling go, hell-bent on ruining my team two years in a row after Starling gets dropped in 2 weeks

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:We can't even use Tuilagi as a loop this week cause he plays the 6pm friday game smh

I can use him as a loop. Put Amone at 18, keep his score on Thursday if it’s decent enough. If not, put in Ilias instead.

Blame Rhino
If you are stupid enough, risk adverse or love to cry and party at the same time then there is a home for you
Don't feel scared, you know you want to

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1900-jack-hetherington-honky-tonk