NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 19 - Do something Fifita!!!

Rabbits21 wrote:
Thanks so much mate I haven’t got it yet but I’ll use it.

Khany wrote:Not many fucks given for Mr Mahoney atm  :

code delta wrote:Got to catch up with so many pages so this might have been covered but what is th go with TPJ's minutes last game?? Is he a trade out?

code delta wrote:Got to catch up with so many pages so this might have been covered but what is th go with TPJ's minutes last game?? Is he a trade out?

code delta wrote:Got to catch up with so many pages so this might have been covered but what is th go with TPJ's minutes last game?? Is he a trade out?

Jumping Marlin wrote:A few thoughts looking at Cleary.  Writing it down to help my thinking.

A comment was made a few pages back that the last 8 games are best indicator of future performance.

Cleary has played 8 games, including the finals, after he returned from injury last year.  In those 8 games he averaged 72.5.  Prior to his injury he was averaging 97 in 2021.  So a combination of injury and tough low scoring finals took 25 points out of his average.  (His lowest scoring game of the year against the Tigers in Rd 24 btw).

As Milchcow has noted, scores a lot down this year. Therefore it’s less important his actual average and more important how much his average is above everyone else.  The bigger one thinks this gap is, the more it is worth chasing him.

Imagine I have $200k to invest.  I can:
1: Invest in average player who scores what magic number predicts.  On current MN I get 15 points.
2: Invest in someone on the up.  Let’s say I upgrade a peaked cow to someone like Starling.  Starling is underpriced so I get a better return.  Maybe he’s underpriced by 10 points, so I get 25 points for my $200k spend.
3: If I sell a fair priced Haas to get a fair priced Cleary it costs me $200k.  If you believe in the fair price, then I get 15 extra points (like option 1).  But, because I now captain Cleary instead of Haas, I get 30 extra points in total.  
So, in this scenario, I’m  maximising my return by investing my $200k upgrading Haas.

Chewie wrote:

Are you here to party?

Jumping Marlin wrote:A few thoughts looking at Cleary.  Writing it down to help my thinking.

A comment was made a few pages back that the last 8 games are best indicator of future performance.

Cleary has played 8 games, including the finals, after he returned from injury last year.  In those 8 games he averaged 72.5.  Prior to his injury he was averaging 97 in 2021.  So a combination of injury and tough low scoring finals took 25 points out of his average.  (His lowest scoring game of the year against the Tigers in Rd 24 btw).

As Milchcow has noted, scores a lot down this year. Therefore it’s less important his actual average and more important how much his average is above everyone else.  The bigger one thinks this gap is, the more it is worth chasing him.

Imagine I have $200k to invest.  I can:
1: Invest in average player who scores what magic number predicts.  On current MN I get 15 points.
2: Invest in someone on the up.  Let’s say I upgrade a peaked cow to someone like Starling.  Starling is underpriced so I get a better return.  Maybe he’s underpriced by 10 points, so I get 25 points for my $200k spend.
3: If I sell a fair priced Haas to get a fair priced Cleary it costs me $200k.  If you believe in the fair price, then I get 15 extra points (like option 1).  But, because I now captain Cleary instead of Haas, I get 30 extra points in total.  
So, in this scenario, I’m  maximising my return by investing my $200k upgrading Haas.

t43597 wrote:24k itb

Grant
Haas Thompson M.King
Tago, Nanai
Hynes, Schneider
Burton, Crichton
Latrell, Teddy, Papi

Aitken, Starling, Randall, Coates
Amone, Ilias, Fifita, Trevilyan

No idea who to trade for Cleary!

t43597 wrote:24k itb

Grant
Haas Thompson M.King
Tago, Nanai
Hynes, Schneider
Burton, Crichton
Latrell, Teddy, Papi

Aitken, Starling, Randall, Coates
Amone, Ilias, Fifita, Trevilyan

No idea who to trade for Cleary!

rhinoceroo wrote:

Sound logic, but now you have to work out if you think Cleary will outscore Haas by that much this season... not sure there's 15 points difference between them, maybe 10.

I was down on Cleary pre-season - probably would have started without him - and the main logic to that was that everything went right for Penrith last year. They've lost several of their grand final team, their depth isn't as good, Cleary - even he himself plays just as well - will get fewer tries, assists and goals.

However. watching the Panthers this year it does turn out that they're still pretty shit hot. (They might be less dominant up front for a few weeks if JFH and Martin are out, especially JFH)

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