NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 36 - Battle of Hastings...Jazz vs Cheese

Aardvark wrote:Just saw a rumour on Fox that Konrad Hurrell has signed for the Dolphins....must have heard someone has stolen his 2014 modus operandi and has come back for the crown

Finch wrote:Thanks to everyone regarding Manly lineup. Took a risk on Lawton last week, is what it is. Hopefully starting this week anyway so not a complete dud. Meh.

Aardvark wrote:Just saw a rumour on Fox that Konrad Hurrell has signed for the Dolphins....must have heard someone has stolen his 2014 modus operandi and has come back for the crown

Aardvark wrote:Just saw a rumour on Fox that Konrad Hurrell has signed for the Dolphins....must have heard someone has stolen his 2014 modus operandi and has come back for the crown

sajjos wrote:Bulldogs also had a honesty session after getting shredded by Gus yesterday.

That's two teams with honesty sessions this week. Depending upon their fantasy output we may have to include honesty sessions as 'base stats' going forward.

SoylentGreen wrote:Committed to Mann > Hastings. Keep backflipping on the other trade. Looking at either:

Hetherington > Cheese
or
JKing > Tevaga

Or just save a trade and wait til next week to see what new shiny option shows up?

Finch wrote:Are Manly gonna run Walker and Lawton on the bench with Schuster & Haumole are fit?

robelgordo wrote:

Hmmm only on a 1 year deal for St. Helens, could come back.

Dolphins desperately need to sign at least 1 decent spine player soon. Otherwise it's looking Cowboys/Crushers 1995 level shit. Also, where is the fanbase coming from - anyone gonna swap their allegiance from Broncs or whatever?

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Mann's issues are not because he is playing LOCK rather that he is shifting around too much because of injuries. A solid stint of 60-65 minutes at LOCK will see his price rise quite bit

Aardvark wrote:I reckon the NRL would have done their research

Shady2K wrote:Panthers Brian To'o returned to training field this weekend and could return from knee injury next week in #NRLPanthersEels

mattnz wrote:The Roosters have spluttered in attack, and Tedesco said with up to five players who liked to play off the cuff, including himself, Keary, Sam Walker, Victor Radley and Joey Manu, they needed to settle on one chief conductor.

"We need Luke to be that genuine halfback for us,” Tedesco told the Herald.

“Sammy might get to that point eventually, but he’s playing eyes-up footy. I’m like that, too. You have all three of us doing that, plus Rads and Joey Manu doing that, so there are a lot of guys who like to be on the ball and playing. That’s when we lack direction.

“We’ve had good conversations today about how it’s probably on Luke now to be that genuine halfback and direct us around and be that main voice for us.

“It’s a different style for him. Cooper Cronk led us around, and me and Luke could play off the back of that. Luke was a running five-eighth coming through the grades. We have similar players in the spine, we’re still trying to work out how that fits, and it’s not flowing freely for us. It’s clunky.

“Luke has always been the second fiddle to the guy leading the team around. But he’s the older and more mature half, and he needs to be that guy."

-----------------

That sounds like we could get back the Keary from the start of last season, would be a bargain at his current price.

Aardvark wrote:

TBH I suspect they are aiming to capture the Sunshine coast and far northern suburbs, which is a significant growth area. My gut feel is that the majority of the Broncs membership/support comes from the southern & western suburbs (including Ipswich)

I reckon the NRL would have done their research in terms of where to place it without impacting the Broncs too much. Redcliffe is a good 40-45 minute drive north of Broncos HQ (which is about 1 min from me and 5 mins from the city centre).

my tv broke wrote:

easytiger wrote:Please forgive me, but here's hopefully a take on Talakai to end all takes... (it's certainly long enough)


Talakai - I hate that he's going so well but you have to set that stuff aside - It is what it is.
So, trying to take the emotive elements out, here's what I hope is an objective look at Talakai.

His fantasy form is partly him, partly a reflection of how well the Sharks pack & spine are playing (and their ability to give him quality ball in good positions), and partly a reflection of the defensive structures he's been up against.

He's played four games at Centre so far this season;

Knights 75 - A mid-table team defensively. Talakai was a bit of an ambush for them and caught them out.

Tigers 45 - Although people consistently write the Tigers off as shit (particularly defensively), they are currently 6th for leaking the least fantasy points. They contained Talakai pretty well.

Storm 68 - is currently the 2nd best defensive team in the comp (fantasy-wise) and easily has leaked the least points at Centre - just 26.6 per game. That drops to 23 if you take out Talakai. A performance to sit up and take notice.

Sea Eagles 107 - Destroyed Morgan Harper - but really it was the Sharks destroying Manly's defensive patterns and being able to put Talakai in a one-on-one situation with a poor defender in Harper (and with a strong wind behind them). The second half showed what a competitive team could do to limit his effectiveness.

Looking at the road ahead;
Broncos - are the second-worst at leaking fantasy points. Third-worst at leaking points to Centres - a team with somewhat flakey defensive structures. Collectively they could struggle to contain the sharks.

Warriors - Fourth worst at leaking fantasy points (although a bit boosted by the Storms routing last week), below average at leaking points to Centre - as with the Broncos, a team capable of falling apart.

Raiders - Actually been one of the stronger teams defensively (in terms of fantasy points - fifth), but below average at leaking points at Centre. Ricky is unhappy, and they seem in a state of flux. Which Raiders turn up?

Titans - A mid-table team defensively and currently better than most in conceding points at Centre. But huge questions about the Titans as a whole and capable of being dominated and leaking heavy points.

Raiders aside, only the Warriors (last week vs Storm) have faced a top-tier team (being Storm, Panthers, Sharks) - so in essence, the defensive stats of the Broncos & Titans are likely to end up worse than their current records.

I've also looked at Talakai's stats at Centre across the Vlandysball period (2020-) - unfortunately, just a 7 match sample size, but you can start to build a picture.

MG
His average MG for the previous two years was 162, this year boosting to 208. That affirms a guy who is keen on being offensively involved.

TCK
His tackles and missed tackles are pretty consistent across both periods - not a great or busy defender, but then you want him spending his energy in attack. A net of about 6 fantasy points. Additionally, he averages about half a TO a game.

OL
Offloads - so long as the Sharks continue to put him in one-on-one offensive situations, he'll continue to get an easy OFH each game.

DMs
Errors & Penalties- most games, he'll get one each.

TB
Tackle-busts - A huge step up this year. From nearly 2TB's per game to averaging 9.5 this year. Of course, this is dragged up by that massive 17TB effort against the Knights. A season-low of 5 against the Tigers, 8 against the Storm & Sea Eagles - it would be fair to expect him to average 6+ over the next four weeks.
Those groups give a base of about 42 points.

ATTACK
Tries, Try Assists, Line Breaks & Assists - I'm going to group these for brevity. Talakai averaged 0.3 per game across each category over the last two years.
This year he's averaging 1.0+ in each category.

The Sharks this year are a vastly improved cohesive unit, with multiple attacking points.
Think about Hynes, Moylan, Kennedy, and Brailey, strong attacking edges in Nikora & Wilton with Ramien & Talakai outside of them.
Back that up with a strong middle, and it's easy to see why opposition defences are going to struggle to get numbers to key attacking points like Ramien and Talakai.

Where the edge defence is fairly sound, Talakai gets the same amount of ball as Ramien - about 18-22 touches (Tigers, Storm).
But, when there is a defensive vulnerability, the Sharks will hit it more (Talakai got 50% more ball than Ramien against the Knights & Sea Eagles). They are recognising and adapting to where weaknesses are. But even when there isn't a vulnerability, he will continue to get a good base of attacking opportunity.

The midpoint between '20-'21 attacking stats & this years (i.e. a downgrade) is worth 15 points a game.
So far this year, it's been worth 23.5 points per game.

So it seems a fair range for projecting scoring over the next 4 weeks could be in the range of 55-65.
Sadly, I think the Broncos, Raiders, Warriors and Titans arguably offer a greater attacking opportunity to the Sharks than the Knights, Tigers, Storm and Sea Eagles - certainly not worse.


Is there money to be made trading in a Centre priced at 49?

Historically speaking, paying $676k for a centre is a tremendously poor option.

But using a magic number of 13.8 (it's fluctuated between 13.7-13.9 the last 4 weeks), we get this;

45 (floor) Projection: week 1 gain $66k, peaks in 2 weeks at a $88k gain - you've made some cash, but TBH it was a bit of a flop.

55 (low) Projection: week 1 gain:  $78k, peaks in 3 weeks at a $135k gain - and you have a potential keeper

65 (high) Projection: week 1 gain:  $89k, 4 weeks nets a $202k gain - and you have a potential keeper


As I see it, the biggest risk now in the Talakai scenario is if Fitzgibbon has a change of heart and decides to use Talakai as bench impact with reduced minutes. But given how well things are currently running, I would imagine he would be loathe to make any major changes.

All things being equal, and Talakai retains his spot, it's hard to see him being an out and out flop and it's a trade that  could offer a significant boost to your bank which may prove timely with only 5 rounds left until the first bye.
The price you pay though is that while he may provide a cash gain, he doesn't necessarily provide much points value at his price. Add to that who would you have to trade to get him in and what damage does it do to your 17th man and it's not a clear-cut decision.

It's certainly not a trade for someone with a low-risk appetite, and even then, as with all projections and trades it shouldn't be considered in isolation.

There is a utility value in every trade.
Does Talakai ultimately make more than a lower price-point option like Jackson Hastings for example (which may allow for a stronger 17th man)?
Does Talakai's potential cash upside outweigh a Jazz Tevaga trade who likely makes money and will provide valuable points in the first bye?

TLDR; To be honest, I'd really prefer that everything added up to Talakai being a flop and maybe he is in the LT.
But this one comes down to how much damage you're prepared to do to your team to get a quick cash grab for mine.

Thoughts in response are probably best directed here: (no one wants a repeat of the last few weeks)
Talakai thread

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

He has always been a bit up and down though. Even when playing that role. Hastings a much better call No?