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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 2 - What's the magic number ?

    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:39 pm

    Mulvy wrote:

    Pretty much. He's cheaper than Doeihi though. And I keep having visions of defences double-teaming Kikau, Burton cut out to JAC, JAC down the side-line, JAC passes inside to Burton backing up, TRY!

    Cheaper, but averages 12 points less based on five-eigth scoring for current clubs in same roles last year. (50 vs 62)

    Burtons legacy 5/8 average is 53. Douiehi is 61
    Antipodean1
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    Post by Antipodean1 Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:42 pm

    Welshy wrote:

    Cheaper, but averages 12 points less based on five-eigth scoring for current clubs in same roles last year. (50 vs 62)

    Burtons legacy 5/8 average is 53. Douiehi is 61

    and Douiehi will have IPap...
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:43 pm

    Welshy wrote:

    Cheaper, but averages 12 points less based on five-eigth scoring for current clubs in same roles last year. (50 vs 62)

    Burtons legacy 5/8 average is 53. Douiehi is 61

    Yep I know the numbers. It's a gut feel thing as suggested by my elaborate example. I think dogs are in for a big season and it gets me a fair way through the season before worrying about byes.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:44 pm

    Antipodean1 wrote:

    and Douiehi will have IPap...

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 2  - What's the magic number ? - Page 39 Both-is-good-both
    Antipodean1
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    Post by Antipodean1 Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:45 pm

    Welshy wrote:

    Cheaper, but averages 12 points less based on five-eigth scoring for current clubs in same roles last year. (50 vs 62)

    Burtons legacy 5/8 average is 53. Douiehi is 61

    Doueihi could be a great POD for you Welshie at 2.8%, I was shocked to see his low ownership. By TLT I reckon he could be well up on %.

    NATHAN CLEARY 39.25%
    JOSH SCHUSTER 24.62%
    NICHOLAS HYNES 23.35%
    ISAIYA KATOA 20.69%
    TE MAIRE MARTIN 19.71%
    MATT BURTON 17.61%
    TANAH BOYD 14.60%
    KODI NIKORIMA 13.23%
    JACKSON HASTINGS 8.62%
    CAMERON MUNSTER 8.54%
    LACHLAN ILIAS 4.36%
    JAHROME HUGHES 4.35%
    JAROME LUAI 4.28%
    TYRAN WISHART 3.40%
    LUKE METCALF 3.36%
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    Post by Antipodean1 Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:50 pm

    Mulvy wrote:

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 2  - What's the magic number ? - Page 39 Both-is-good-both

    I wouldn't argue with Doueihi and Burton, but I am likely to start Cleary and Burton with Boyd and TMM as my backups.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:52 pm

    Antipodean1 wrote:

    I wouldn't argue with Doueihi and Burton, but I am likely to start Cleary and Burton with Boyd and TMM as my backups.

    Well that's exactly what I have.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:58 pm

    Mulvy wrote:

    Not to mention better service from dummy-half

    Mahoney is going to be a great signing for them. Probably has the best pass of all the hookers in the comp just fast clean ball to halves that gives them a bit more time.. Eels will have to adjust as well
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:59 pm

    Antipodean1 wrote:

    He could be a great POD for you Welshie at 2.8%, I was shocked to see his low ownership. By TLT I reckon he could be well up on %.

    NATHAN CLEARY39.25%
    JOSH SCHUSTER24.62%
    NICHOLAS HYNES23.35%
    ISAIYA KATOA20.69%
    TE MAIRE MARTIN19.71%
    MATT BURTON17.61%
    TANAH BOYD14.60%
    KODI NIKORIMA13.23%
    JACKSON HASTINGS8.62%
    CAMERON MUNSTER8.54%
    LACHLAN ILIAS4.36%
    JAHROME HUGHES4.35%
    JAROME LUAI4.28%
    TYRAN WISHART3.40%
    LUKE METCALF3.36%

    For my thinking if I was picking between the 2 I would have to go with the stats which back up a higher scoring average over the hope some new surroundings will improve the scoring average.

    I'm really surprised the current ownership is that low, it's not like the sample size is really small either, has played 22 games (2021 + 2022) for a 62 average at 5/8. priced at 53?

    Can also use same basis for Burton improvement to Doueihi with improved supporting cast. But I'm just using that to hope he can maintain that 60+ average instead, anything else is a bonus

    I'm actually tossing up Burton on my bench. Currently have Cleary and Hynes with Doohicky. But Burton over Hynes means i can propely upgrade elsewhere
    Antipodean1
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    Post by Antipodean1 Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:59 pm

    I am starting to get my hopes up BTurbo snags an edge at Manly for the CTR coverage, won't happen, but a man can dream.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Fri Feb 10, 2023 9:01 pm

    Add me to the unenthused by Hastings bandwagon. There’s just too many unknowns with the new club setup and how it might translate to fantasy points. I reckon Hastings and Ponga could both end up at 45ish?
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    Post by Antipodean1 Fri Feb 10, 2023 9:04 pm

    Welshy wrote:
    For my thinking if I was picking between the 2 I would have to go with the stats which back up a higher scoring average over the hope some new surroundings will improve the scoring average.

    I'm really surprised the current ownership is that low, it's not like the sample size is really small either, has played 22 games (2021 + 2022) for a 62 average at 5/8. priced at 53?

    Can also use same basis for Burton improvement to Doueihi with improved supporting cast. But I'm just using that to hope he can maintain that 60+ average instead, anything else is a bonus

    I'm actually tossing up Burton on my bench. Currently have Cleary and Hynes with Doohicky. But Burton over Hynes means i can propely upgrade elsewhere

    Wow, that is heavy artillery in the halves mate.

    I am only interested in H2H so Hynes will come in late season.

    I think most people are budgeting down to Burton as reasonably comparable to Doueihi, but freeing up 55k, I think there is a lot of upside for Doueihi, but I too feel he is just a bit pricey for $ making purposes elsewhere in my team.

    You could be on to a winner.
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    Post by Antipodean1 Fri Feb 10, 2023 9:11 pm

    Is anyone starting Latrell?

    I currently have Meaney penciled in but keeping my options open in the FB spaces.
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Fri Feb 10, 2023 9:24 pm

    Antipodean1 wrote:

    Wow, that is heavy artillery in the halves mate.

    I am only interested in H2H so Hynes will come in late season.

    I think most people are budgeting down to Burton as reasonably comparable to Doueihi, but freeing up 55k, I think there is a lot of upside for Doueihi, but I too feel he is just a bit pricey for $ making purposes elsewhere in my team.

    You could be on to a winner.

    Understand hes $53k cheaper, so that's around 4 points of value. Burton has to average 54 to even the price imbalance, just around his legacy 5/8 average.

    This is still 8 points below AD and his 5/8 average. The reason I'm so high on AD is his KM base. It's no where near the elite half options numbers, and he is still well up there in scoring average across a decent sample size (20+ games)

    Burtons improvements will have to come in addtional personal or team attacking points because he already kicks the piss out of the ball



    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Fri Feb 10, 2023 9:36 pm

    Antipodean1 wrote:Is anyone starting Latrell?

    I currently have Meaney penciled in but keeping my options open in the FB spaces.

    Teddy for me currently mate, can't start the season without a big time WFB.

    Not running the risk of 3 mid rangers/cow all imploding early season
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Fri Feb 10, 2023 9:48 pm

    Welshy wrote:

    Understand hes $53k cheaper, so that's around 4 points of value. Burton has to average 54 to even the price imbalance, just around his legacy 5/8 average.

    This is still 8 points below AD and his 5/8 average. The reason I'm so high on AD is his KM base. It's no where near the elite half options numbers, and he is still well up there in scoring average across a decent sample size (20+ games)

    Burtons improvements will have to come in addtional personal or team attacking points because he already kicks the piss out of the ball




    Dogs are Burton's team now. Wests, it seems, are Brooks's team. Dogs are also likely to be a better team than Wests, partly because of that.
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Fri Feb 10, 2023 9:56 pm

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    Dogs are Burton's team now. Wests, it seems, are Brooks's team. Dogs are also likely to be a better team than Wests, partly because of that.

    That's fine and was the case last year for Burton and always been the previous for Brooks....Hasn't effected AD scoring average when playing 5/8 though?

    I really don't understand the fanfare for Burton auto adjusting his scoring because the dogs will better. Just doesn't always work out like that? I mean it might

    But, AD has the average, playing with Brooks and playing in a fairly horrocious Tigers side, who are also slated to improve with thier own addtions?

    Bare minimum. AD is priced 8 points below his legacy average at 5/8th to start the season. That's the only point i'm really looking at
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    Post by rhinoceroo Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:04 pm

    Welshy wrote:

    That's fine and was the case last year for Burton and always been the previous for Brooks....Hasn't effected AD scoring average when playing 5/8 though?

    I really don't understand the fanfare for Burton auto adjusting his scoring because the dogs will better. Just doesn't always work out like that? I mean it might

    But, AD has the average, playing with Brooks and playing in a fairly horrocious Tigers side, who are also slated to improve with thier own addtions?

    Bare minimum. AD is priced 8 points below his legacy average at 5/8th to start the season. That's the only point i'm really looking at

    Wouldn't talk you out of it, mate, and the low ownership is surprising and makes a decent POD.

    However Burton is pretty much locked in next to Cleary for me. Doueihi is competing for probably one spot alongside others at his price point (Tapine, Robson, Difita) rather than Burton.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:11 pm

    Welshy wrote:

    That's fine and was the case last year for Burton and always been the previous for Brooks....Hasn't effected AD scoring average when playing 5/8 though?

    I really don't understand the fanfare for Burton auto adjusting his scoring because the dogs will better. Just doesn't always work out like that? I mean it might

    But, AD has the average, playing with Brooks and playing in a fairly horrocious Tigers side, who are also slated to improve with thier own addtions?

    Bare minimum. AD is priced 8 points below his legacy average at 5/8th to start the season. That's the only point i'm really looking at

    I don't know if Welshy knows the castle, Australian classic, but..

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 2  - What's the magic number ? - Page 39 The-castle-the-vibe
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:12 pm

    Like Rhino said though, Douehi a good pick too. For the reasons you've stated Welshman.

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