NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 2 - What's the magic number ?

Mulvy wrote:I'm not unhappy with this...

Mahoney
Haas Cotter Sutton
Loiero Garner
Cleary Burton
Thompson Alamoti
Ponga TMM Perham

Hodgson Hopgood Boyd Cheese

250kx4. Maybe Doorery, Sloan etc

Thoughts?

Haha, any thoughts besides Burton?

Mulvy wrote:

Haha, any thoughts besides Burton?

This is Leniu’s year.

the_great_wobbler wrote:

I like Staggs, hes been in my team for a while. Hopefully can just have him until the byes and he locks down a centre spot for the first half of the season for you. Feels like a 15 or 50 point average kinda guy though.

Just feels like all of the other cheap centre options are trash. Hammer is fully priced for his career FB average and playing in one of the worst teams in the comp.

Really considering just running Staggs and Holmes and then change one of Staggs/Holmes out for Manu over Origin / when Teddy goes down injured.

Staggs has been in and out of my team. He's the only expensive centre I'm interested in at the moment given there's no way I'm spending up on Manu/Holmes/Graham to start.

But the way I'll probably go is starting with two cheapies (Thompson and Alamoti if they're playing) and probably no cover either.

Reason? There are so many potential subguns (sorry) in the forwards between 450k and 600k-ish (Garner, Katoa, Wilton, Niukore, Butcher, Hopgood, TPJ, Elliott, probably missed a few there, add Hodgson and Boyd too I suppose) that the plan would be to grab an extra one of those rather than Staggs (and Alamoti on the bench) but knowing that at least one of them will be a bust or get injured in the first few rounds.

Whoever that guy is, I'll use a trade to move him to whichever centre looks most like a keeper after the first few rounds, whether that's Staggs or Suaalii (after Roosters bye) or someone else we haven't considered. Maybe there'll be an injury at the Dolphins and Aitken moves to 2RF, maybe Bird is playing lock, maybe Holmes had an injury-effected -2, maybe Talakai actually is Greg Inglis, we don't know any of that yet except the last one.

tl:dr centres: cheaper and fewer

Mulvy wrote:Like Rhino said though, Douehi a good pick too. For the reasons you've stated Welshman.

I actually think Burton has the potential to go huge as well mate. And he's been in and out of my side

Just seen plenty of Burtons' and not many Doohickeys' and thought there had to be something I haven't been looking at.

Just comes down for me between the 2 well talked about examples. Purely that it's stats vs assumption

AD only priced where he is currently due to his interchange games after injury and playing CTR

Anyone running with Kelma?

Welshy wrote:Anyone running with Kelma?

Definitely underpriced but probably won't elevate to be a gun edg which makes me prefer the cheap value that's on hand this year. Doorey for 250k could easily knock out the 40-45s that Tuilagi could for half price. That's how I'm approaching edge this year anyway

Just one more point on Douehi, and it's minor. Slight chance of Douehi moved to centres, zero chance for Burton. Douehi's had a couple of ACL's now, slightly increased injury risk over Burton. But honestly, I think AD will be fine.

Is there a world where AD does worse behind a better pack because he no longer has to do literally everything himself? #narrative

the_great_wobbler wrote:Is there a world where AD does worse behind a better pack because he no longer has to do literally everything himself? #narrative

Maybe, but Douehi likes to do it all himself regardless. Massive ball hog. Which is of course good for fantasy.

Unless....is this the team doing a million passes?

the_great_wobbler wrote:Is there a world where AD does worse behind a better pack because he no longer has to do literally everything himself? #narrative

Don't think you can use that narrative for Doueihi and not Burton. so samesies

Mulvy wrote:

Unless....is this the team dropping a million passes?

FYP

rhinoceroo wrote:

FYP

Does throwing them into the ground count as dropping them?

Sorry one more point. If we like them both for 60, we have to take into account the byes. They both miss rd13 but Douehi misses one more round. If Douehi's replacement (assuming you have one) scores say 30, that's 690 for twelve rounds or 57.5 per round. If Burton plays 12 rounds, that's 720 or 60 points per round. 2.5 not insignificant. Closes the gap on the head start Douehi has which Welshy rightly points out.

Mulvy wrote:Sorry one more point. If we like them both for 60, we have to take into account the byes. They both miss rd13 but Douehi misses one more round. If Douehi's replacement (assuming you have one) scores say 30, that's 690 for twelve rounds or 57.5 per round. If Burton plays 12 rounds, that's 720 or 60 points per round. 2.5 not insignificant. Closes the gap on the head start Douehi has which Welshy rightly points out.

Absolutely.

Adding 10 to an average is fucking tough mind. That’s a huge jump for someone already averaging 50

Welshy wrote:

Absolutely.

Adding 10 to an average is fucking tough mind. That’s a huge jump for someone already averaging 50

I think Burton also gets another 1.5-2 points in goal kicks on top of last year. Is Douehi the GK? Serious question, I don't know.

Mulvy wrote:

I think Burton also gets another 1.5-2 points in goal kicks on top of last year. Is Douehi the GK? Serious question, I don't know.

Yes he is. You’d expect the Tigers to score more tries too!

Mulvy wrote:Sorry one more point. If we like them both for 60, we have to take into account the byes. They both miss rd13 but Douehi misses one more round. If Douehi's replacement (assuming you have one) scores say 30, that's 690 for twelve rounds or 57.5 per round. If Burton plays 12 rounds, that's 720 or 60 points per round. 2.5 not insignificant. Closes the gap on the head start Douehi has which Welshy rightly points out.

This really is the big decider between the two! This, and the 50k saving. Taking the first six games into account -They play each other in Rd 3, they both play the Storm. The Tigers have the better draw, just. Dogs play Parra when the Tigers have the bye. The Tigers are more likely to be the much improved team of the two. Doueihi gas been the mist consistent if the two so I think you start with Doueihi for the first 6 weeks then reassess.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
Yes he is. You’d expect the Tigers to score more tries too!

Would you though? Their backline is still very questionable.

Anyone not starting with Cleary due to his draw? Hynes is a no go to start with because of the Shark’s draw surely. Is Walker or Hughes a better option to start with based on their draw (price doesn’t matter as I’ll leave money ITB)? The plan would be to bring Cleary in Rd 4 (Walker) Rd 5 (Hughes). If so which one?

On the draw, how bad is Parramatta’s opening 8 weeks?