NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 2 - What's the magic number ?

mickspicks wrote:

Would you though? Their backline is still very questionable.

With those forwards you would have to think everyone improves in attack. Nothing can save the outside defense though.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
This really is the big decider between the two! This, and the 50k saving. Taking the first six games into account -They play each other in Rd 3, they both play the Storm. The Tigers have the better draw, just. Dogs play Parra when the Tigers have the bye. The Tigers are more likely to be the much improved team of the two. Doueihi gas been the mist consistent if the two so I think you start with Doueihi for the first 6 weeks then reassess.

Why are the Tigers likely to be the more improved? Bulldogs have bought well with Kikau and Mahoney, Tigers pack looks much better now but their 1-5 on paper is the worst in the comp maybe alongside the Warriors. Their halves (and that includes Doueihi) aren't that great either.

Add the highest-rated assistant in the game vs a dinosaur who flopped in England and I know who I'd pick to finish higher on the ladder, and that makes "good draw" comparisons moot, because all draws are harder if you're a worse team.

Doueihi will probably score well because he's such a ball-hog but I doubt there'll be a significant uptick in GK points due to the Tigers are raining tries.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Anyone not starting with Cleary due to his draw? Hynes is a no go to start with because of the Shark’s draw surely. Is Walker or Hughes a better option to start with based on their draw (price doesn’t matter as I’ll leave money ITB)? The plan would be to bring Cleary in Rd 4 (Walker) Rd 5 (Hughes). If so which one?

I don't think it's worth the bother tbh - just start with Cleary. But if you insist on playing dodge-the-byes then probably Hughes because you'll have a few weeks between the Panthers and Storm bye to sort things out whereas with Walker you have to make the move too early and in a one week window where you might have other fires to fight.

How many points is a trade worth? I’m considering not starting with Cleary due to the Rd 3 bye -probably bring him in Rd 4. Based on averages despite playing one game less he should score similarly to the likes of S Walker, Dearden, and Hughes after 3 Rounds. My only concern is how many extra points SWalker can accrue in the first two rounds then whatever he gets in the 3rd round is a bonus. Hughes on the other hand seems to score better without Paps and would then be a potential Rd 5 trade to Cleary. Dearden is less desirable, but what a draw for the first 8 weeks!

rhinoceroo wrote:

Why are the Tigers likely to be the more improved? Bulldogs have bought well with Kikau and Mahoney, Tigers pack looks much better now but their 1-5 on paper is the worst in the comp maybe alongside the Warriors. Their halves (and that includes Doueihi) aren't that great either.

Add the highest-rated assistant in the game vs a dinosaur who flopped in England and I know who I'd pick to finish higher on the ladder, and that makes "good draw" comparisons moot, because all draws are harder if you're a worse team.

Doueihi will probably score well because he's such a ball-hog but I doubt there'll be a significant uptick in GK points due to the Tigers are raining tries.

Predominantly because we were so shit last year! The Dogs will improve, but I expect we will be vastly better in attack this year.

I’ve just noticed that I have no centre back up in my team since I removed Talau -I can’t see how he starts in Rd 1 after last night’s effort. I know he hasn’t played for 18 months but he looks like a few weeks in Cup would do him some good. I just can’t see anyone I want to place in my 18-21. Playing Thompson and Alamoti is how I’ll start. What a depressing position centre is!

rhinoceroo wrote:

I don't think it's worth the bother tbh - just start with Cleary. But if you insist on playing dodge-the-byes then probably Hughes because you'll have a few weeks between the Panthers and Storm bye to sort things out whereas with Walker you have to make the move too early and in a one week window where you might have other fires to fight.

Playing dodge the byes would only be for Cleary. It’s so much money on the bench for such an important position. It is just 1 trade, not like I’m trading him out and back in again. The worst case scenario (barring injury, suspension, et al) is that you get a few more points but it still costs a trade, those draws though could get you a decent head start over all those that bench him.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:How many points is a trade worth? I’m considering not starting with Cleary due to the Rd 3 bye -probably bring him in Rd 4. Based on averages despite playing one game less he should score similarly to the likes of S Walker, Dearden, and Hughes after 3 Rounds. My only concern is how many extra points SWalker can accrue in the first two rounds then whatever he gets in the 3rd round is a bonus. Hughes on the other hand seems to score better without Paps and would then be a potential Rd 5 trade to Cleary. Dearden is less desirable, but what a draw for the first 8 weeks!

It would probably be 2 trades to get Cleary unless you’re holding 300k+ in the bank

I don’t really see some of those players averaging 55+ which is what they’d need to match Cleary if he got 65 average in first 2 + 35 from EMG

One thing to note about Cleary last year is he came into season not fully recovering from surgery in off season

Mulvy wrote:

Haha, any thoughts besides Burton?

Don’t see anything really wrong with the team.

Haven’t really considered the 2 HOKs because I expected a utility to be on bench taking mins. However, having 2 “riskier” mid rangers may also be a blessing in disguise if one fails and can downgrade to a missed cow (I had this issue last year at start going full guns + cows with both guns + cows failing)

Just re Cotter, Cowboys bye schedule actually likely makes him a sell at Origin due to missing 4 of 8 games over Origin period (with potential for extra resting) but no issue picking in R1 if you factor in

rhinoceroo wrote:

Why are the Tigers likely to be the more improved? Bulldogs have bought well with Kikau and Mahoney, Tigers pack looks much better now but their 1-5 on paper is the worst in the comp maybe alongside the Warriors. Their halves (and that includes Doueihi) aren't that great either.

Add the highest-rated assistant in the game vs a dinosaur who flopped in England and I know who I'd pick to finish higher on the ladder, and that makes "good draw" comparisons moot, because all draws are harder if you're a worse team.

Doueihi will probably score well because he's such a ball-hog but I doubt there'll be a significant uptick in GK points due to the Tigers are raining tries.

The Bulldogs in '22 averaged about 1 point per game more than the Tigers in attack - both teams with much the same back 5's as they have this year.
It remains to be seen whether the Bulldogs have resolved their Fullback issue - but they are certainly inexperienced there.

I'm not convinced that a Flanagan-Burton combo is significantly better than Brooks-Doueihi - especially now that the game plan (allegedly) isn't hit up 5 tackles and put up a bomb. Brooks isn't a great player, but nor is he the worst out there - he's servicible.

The Bulldogs picked up Mahoney - the Tigers Koroisau (I'd suggest the later is better)
The Bulldogs picked up Kikau - the Tigers Papali'i (again I'd argue Papali'i has a greater impact across 80 minutes)

Then the Tigers also picked up notably good players in Klemmer and Bateman.
Sheens is old, but younger than Wayne Bennett. He has won 4 premierships and should be aided by having Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah as assistants who are more in tune with the current game.

Cameron Ciraldo has coached 6 NRL games for a 3 win, 3 loss record - regardless of how well-rated he is, the jury is out as to whether he is a good first-grade coach.

The Tigers have probably had the worst pack in the NRL for the last few years (and the worst roster IMO), I'd suggest that the changes are likely to provide a significant improvement on what's been on the park in recent years.

Mulvy wrote:

Haha, any thoughts besides Burton?

I struggle to see much upside for Mahoney - I get about 3 points maybe?
Aside from Vlandy's ball, he's been a consistent tackle-bot style for a regulation 48-50 points and he's priced at 46.
So, I'm not sure if there's a suggestion he adds some attacking stats to create value & shift him towards keeper level? - I get the bye-friendly start is a nice advantage

Apropos of nothing, just looked at Phil Gould's Twitter and of course the absolute prick has paid for a blue tick.

easytiger wrote:


The Bulldogs in '22 averaged about 1 point per game more than the Tigers in attack - both teams with much the same back 5's as they have this year.
It remains to be seen whether the Bulldogs have resolved their Fullback issue - but they are certainly inexperienced there.

I'm not convinced that a Flanagan-Burton combo is significantly better than Brooks-Doueihi - especially now that the game plan (allegedly) isn't hit up 5 tackles and put up a bomb. Brooks isn't a great player, but nor is he the worst out there - he's servicible.

The Bulldogs picked up Mahoney - the Tigers Koroisau (I'd suggest the later is better)
The Bulldogs picked up Kikau - the Tigers Papali'i (again I'd argue Papali'i has a greater impact across 80 minutes)

Then the Tigers also picked up notably good players in Klemmer and Bateman.
Sheens is old, but younger than Wayne Bennett. He has won 4 premierships and should be aided by having Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah as assistants who are more in tune with the current game.

Cameron Ciraldo has coached 6 NRL games for a 3 win, 3 loss record - regardless of how well-rated he is, the jury is out as to whether he is a good first-grade coach.

The Tigers have probably had the worst pack in the NRL for the last few years (and the worst roster IMO), I'd suggest that the changes are likely to provide a significant improvement on what's been on the park in recent years.

Must admit I'd temporarily forgotten about Api, yeah that does mean the Tigers have improved their roster more (although they had more room to improve).

Not sure about Bateman this time round. He's been poor in England for a couple of years, but some players are better in the NRL than ESL I guess, he might be the Raiders Bateman.

I can’t believe we’ve come this far and no one has brought up Host or Lawrie?

Edit: not a fan of a bye each week. Should have just relegated the donkeys or let in two teams.

Camo123 wrote:

Don’t see anything really wrong with the team.

Haven’t really considered the 2 HOKs because I expected a utility to be on bench taking mins. However, having 2 “riskier” mid rangers may also be a blessing in disguise if one fails and can downgrade to a missed cow (I had this issue last year at start going full guns + cows with both guns + cows failing)

Just re Cotter, Cowboys bye schedule actually likely makes him a sell at Origin due to missing 4 of 8 games over Origin period (with potential for extra resting) but no issue picking in R1 if you factor in

Yeah i like that a lot of my team gets me through to origin Haas, Cotter, Dogs players, Hodgson etc. Hopefully it saves some trades early which I can spend over Origin, as you say will be required.

Was just having a deeper look at Elliot to see if he can sustain 60 min lock role moving to Knights

Since Adam O'Brien coach at Knights he seems to have preferred a big min lock:
2020 - Barnett 9 games starting at lock - 74 min average
2021 - Watson 8 games starting at lock - 64 min average (13 games starting interchange - 50 mins average - recall him always being shifted to interchange)
2022 - Mann 10 games starting lock - 66 min average + Barnett 6 games starting lock 66 min average

Yep, same problem as I have......Cant split them

easytiger wrote:

I struggle to see much upside for Mahoney - I get about 3 points maybe?
Aside from Vlandy's ball, he's been a consistent tackle-bot style for a regulation 48-50 points and he's priced at 46.
So, I'm not sure if there's a suggestion he adds some attacking stats to create value & shift him towards keeper level? - I get the bye-friendly start is a nice advantage

He's priced at 45, got a slight discount.

I don't think low 50's is out of the question. I feel that 2022 was just a bit of a down year for him. Averaged 61.2 the year before and 50.9 the year before that (but 56.5 in games over 60 min)

There's no one stat to explain it, everything was just a bit down. A few less tackles, a couple more missed. Someone pointed out last year that he was defending a bit wider, will be interesting to see if trials gives us an idea of where he is defending. A couple less assists, a few less run metres, a few less kick metres, a few more penalties.

Even if he averaged 50 that'd be good enough value and able to be held until the byes. He's got a banner in him though so has some upside as well.