NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 5 - Assemble the base price players

Mulvy wrote:

No one's picking you for fantasy fantasy mate

Boozecluez wrote:I remember being part of the all the discussion and calculations of a 'price of a trade' back in the day so still laugh when told things in concrete or XYZ player isn't worth it. Maybe I have been playing this game too long or getting old but it's funny seeing it recycled.
Then somehow every year finish probably top 10 in overall team value (without blowing my own trumpet) something I am decent at ignoring this as it all balances out in the end.
The discussions with multiple people in my old trials and tribulations threads, using graphs and the data available recorded there along with multiple spreadsheets to see if it was all worth it was probably futile in the end.
Private message discussions with the godfather of fantasy stats Steve Nicholls (RIP) even discussing said thing who was a big sharer and wanted to look into this further and expand on it, but ultimately there were too many variables and a lot of luck involved to come to an exact conclusion.

Do you know what I learnt from all of this?

Wait until TLT, choose your cheapies, captain and must haves then have fun working out how to fill in the remaining 6 or 7 spots
It was fun breaking everything down, and so is not caring too for the more recent years
But the results end up the same regardless so just have fun and don't overthink things
When you have autopick teams/template teams/hooker experiment team/Half experiment team last year still going well then it's not that important who you choose to start the year
Or maybe its all just luck so disregard the above too

Absolutely brilliant post mate! You are someone that needs to post more!

Your last sentence about “maybe luck” though…that maybe can be changed to not, as it isn’t luck you need to win. You need a little bit of everything else you mentioned, then you will make your own “luck”

If it was just down to luck then there wouldn’t be any consistency good players

my tv broke wrote:


Am i missing something? Kaufusi and KBrom would be (near enough to) 80 min edge forwards ?

Nothing

I don’t like this Ray Stone

I think learning from mistakes is how you get better at this game. It doesnt mean you restrict yourself by saying 'this didnt work last year therefor i definitely wont do it again this year' but i think it is important to see why you stuffed up before and what you should remember going forward.

Im notoriously poor at this game but i did peak at 3rd a few seasons ago (after only 5 rounds or so) before my own poor decisions completely crippled my team. I also had major injury issues but i recognise i set myself up for failure first and foremost, and then it was injuries that just added to my misery.

What i did was tried to go blanket guns n cows after the success of my season up to that point had been my midpricers. Sounds dumb? It was. What i wanted was to get the best of the best in every position thinking id have enough trades and enough cash gen. Well, quickly i struggled as i traded in speculative cows mainly focussing on the short term and not looking into slightly more expensive but safer options.

As such, i culled all these mid-pricers that were playing fine and while i played the 'value game' with rookies, i didnt with guns so i traded in guns at their top price while convincing myself they were 'worth it'.

So then i started to lose cows to injury or omission and then a few guns got injured and boom i got into a position where i wouldve loved to have still had my reliable mid-pricers either on my bench or in my starting 13/17.

So what i learnt was to not 'go for perfection' and to be more patient. I really should've just backed my team in and traded much more conservatively. I convinced myself i had to trade hard to have any chance of winning, which at the time, it looked like i did indeed have a chance...but alas it is a long season.

This season i want to be more patient and really value depth which will be even more crucial with byes this season. I dont want to get a rush of blood again because while you need to take risks to win, you also need stability to keep you in the race to begin with!

Anyway, TL;DR - learn from mistakes as much as possible

I changed my team so many time but I finally got Drinky in with 98k left

Aardvark wrote:Could someone please tell me the magic formula which will make me good at fantasy

Eleventy Seven

using Stone is a primitive trap.

my papa was a rolling stone

A rolling stone is in my team as a LOCK

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:A rolling stone is in my team as a LOCK

How many minutes do you reckon Stone gets?

Mulvy wrote:

No one's picking you for fantasy fantasy mate

Mighty Fishes is the ultimate sub gun POD

Dale Finucane and Wade Graham appointed co-captain at Sharks (source: Telegraph)

Antipodean1 wrote:

How many minutes do you reckon Stone gets?

Totally different proposition to Preston - but Dolphins training reports suggest that Gilbert is starting at LOCK before Stone replaces him about 20 minutes in when Gilbert joins the prop rotation

Jumping Marlin wrote:Dale Finucane and Wade Graham appointed co-captain at Sharks (source: Telegraph)

Panic!!!

80 minute finucane.

80 minute wade graham


!!!

Let's start with saying eight by 250s. That allows you seven guns and 6 midrangers of some description.

At least four of the eight will fail completely and by that logic the other four should be playable.

Seven guns will keep you in touch with the pack as far as points scoring goes. But at least two of the mid ranges are likely to underperform as well.

And then of course we have injuries.

This gives us four base price and two mid-range that need to be upgraded and that is of course, assuming all guns file should they not then at least two of those as well.

So the question then becomes how much cash is required to upgrade four base price, two mid-range and two guns into something worth having.

Well, the competition does tend to throw up fairly low price players that are valuable somewhere in rounds 3 to 10. Maybe two or three. If three another five swaps or upgrades need to be funded and square dollars. That doesn't sound too bad but you'll also have base price or cash cars that need converting and cashing out around that sort of round 10 to 12 point.

A gut feel would be that 300k is enough for those upgrades given their price and that seems manageable. But then the real question is how far does that put you behind someone who's gone three guns and heavy mid-range and can face down the bye schedule. Because that's where a lot of movement is likely to be made within the pack. When you have to play with 14.

As far as flexibility versus risk versus owning goes, we seem to have ourselves a very interesting season indeed. I'm going to try and lean into the risk because I don't normally do that. And worst case scenario that just means I'll end up starting in league 10 with Camo123 and Revraiser. Which will be social!.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Totally different proposition to Preston - but Dolphins training reports suggest that Gilbert is starting at LOCK before Stone replaces him about 20 minutes in when Gilbert joins the prop rotation

If that is the case, he's value +++

Antipodean1 wrote:

How many minutes do you reckon Stone gets?

At the moment, my answer would be "not enough", but its not clear cut either way

In 2021 he averaged 20 minutes off the bench. 2022 he got 26 minutes across just 3 games before injury.

You'd want a consistent 40 before you thought about getting him

Assume these are the middles maybe he gets it. Would he be behind Wallace but ahead of Ese'ese in the rotation?

Nicholls, JBrom, Gilbert, Ese'ese, Wallace, Stone

If you have 4 (out of 8) $250k players that you need to trade out in the first few weeks, who are you going to trade them to? Might have to downgrade one of your guns to get the cash. Maybe one will get injured or suspended to make the decision for you.

But playing with a bunch of guns but 4 dud cows is not a criteria for long term success. If 8 cows turn up that look viable, go for it but I wouldn't try and force one just to make a slight improvement to your starting 17

Well personally I just selected a team of 21 keepers and probably won’t make any trades at all this year. Will announce round 1.

my tv broke wrote:


Panic!!!

80 minute finucane.

80 minute wade graham


!!!

Hopefully they play 40 mins each evenly every week at lock

I don’t know why but since he’s been named Co-Captain I am more keen to get Fin in. Even though it probably has no bearing on his fantasy output or minutes for the year