NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 5 - Assemble the base price players

ytsb wrote:Not thrilled about having Tedesco but seriously backed into a corner with the lack of WFB options this year and he brings some certainty, even if he isn't value. Seems too risky running CNK, TMM, Miller, Warbrick. Is anyone running the gauntlet and not starting with a gun WFB?

rhinoceroo wrote:

You've made a great case for trading an Origin prop to Tapine after Canberra's bye. Not our fault you can't follow your own logic

mattnz wrote:
I can retain Tapine all season and trade the other MIDs to any other position that I want at a time that works for me. while those that didn't start with Tapine will still need to trade him in. I will have 1 more for round 13 that others won't already have.

Hopgood is another that will work in a similar way, so will have 2 quality Mids right through. How many other players would equally qualify as not requiring a trade all season? 

Simple math for those still missing the obvious point

Let's look at it another way, Haas vs Tapine to start with in round 1. Haas plays 1 more game than Tapine in the first 12 rounds. Assuming they both average similarly and Haas scores a 60 on the week Tapine has his bye and he is the only Raiders player in the team. 

By that round you should have a replacement player capable of 45+ on your bench as 18th man, so you may have lost up to 15 points, but you have saved the trade from Haas to Tapine. Is a trade worth more than 15 points? Of course. Simple math and logic!

Milchcow wrote:
Random fact, Danny Levi didn't play NRL last year, but in 2021 he averaged 55 as starting hooker

Even in 2020 he averaged 35 as starting hooker, and he's only priced at 22

Lukeayee got angry about people getting Tom Starling, how will he feel when we all join the CeLEVIbration

Milchcow wrote:
I'm not picking Levi, I was just looking through his stats and thought they were impressive enough to post about

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

I’ve been eyeing all cowboys to see who I can get cos their draw and bye schedule is great, none seem to fit in currently, maybe if Hynes is out I can get drinky with the spare cash

Interested to see who the starting 2nd row is in Luciano absence

rhinoceroo wrote:

Who are these other great Round 13 players that you're trading Haas/Carrigan/Cotter to? There aren't many of them not playing Origin. You'll probably have to trade them out after the byes, unlike Tapine, so you're not really saving a trade. Assuming you want to run home with both Haas and Tapine:

Me: R12, Haas to Tapine, one trade. R20 Player X to Haas, one trade = two trades

You: R12 Haas to player Y, one trade. R20 Player Y to Haas, one trade = two trades

Have tried to keep the maths and logic simple.

You might think your combo scores better over the first 12 rounds, which is fine, but you're not long-term saving any trades really.

Milchcow wrote:here's some MIDs I currently am looking at


Cameron Murray $904k
One of the viable non Cleary/Hynes captaincy options. Advantage of Murray is that his first by round 13.
Better than Cleary (R3) or Hynes (R6) so you can stick him as captain until origin 1.
Probably trade him out after 12 (plays max 4 of next 8/) or at least after R15 (plays 2 of next 5)
Barring 1st minute HIA his lowest score last year was 45, which is the sort of floor you want. Only went under 57 three times
You have to fork out the money, but he's a solid, bye friendly captaincy option


Payne Haas $809k
$100k cheaper than Murray. Not bad when 2022 was the only year Murray has outscored Haas.
Haas normally gives solid 60+ scores, but last year he dropped to 56. He was injury affected though
Maybe if he can play a game without clutching hi shoulder every 2 minuets he'll get back to mega-Haas
Maybe he'll be overtaken by the next guy on the list

Patrick Carrigan $716k
Everyone expects big things from Carrigan this year. His stats were good last year, but at 60 minutes and a 50 average, how much room is there to improve?
Carrigan and Haas can both play big minutes, obviously you want that to fall in favour of whichever one you own.
If Carrigan can consistently play over 60 minutes, then the value is there. But there are other slightly discounted MIDs also offering the same thing.
Which one do you trust?
Broncos are bye friendly, so either Haas and/or Carrigan are good to hold up until origin, and should provide a decent VC option

Tino Fa'asuamaleaui $771k
Tino averaged 47 at lock last year, then moved to prop for the last 5 games and that jumped to 65.
Is that enough to accept as the new normal? If he starts 2023 how he finished 2022, then he's close to a must have.
If you don't start with him, he'll be someone to keep an eye on closely, because you may need to move quickly on him if he starts on fire.

Reuben Cotter $744k
Had a breakout season last year, where he arguably overtook Taumalolo as the premier forward at the Cowboys (certainly in Fantasy if not real life)
He averaged 56 pre-origin and 46 post origin, as he played 10 minutes less per week.
Which Cotter will we get to start the year? Bye friendly playing every week until origin 1.
Personally I think there is less risk if you spring for one of the other premium mids


Joe Tapine $790k
He's always promised a lot in fantasy but not always consistently delivered. until 2022 when he lifted his average to 55.
Can he lift it again? Or take it up yet another level? He's promised not to let last year be a one-off, which in my mind sets off "training the house down" alarm bells
Its a lot of money to spend if he doesn't improve on last year


Christian Welch $638k
He hasn't really played in Fantasy under the new offload-friendly scoring after being injured early last year
Has an offload friendly game, and as sole captain of the Storm he'll surely play 80* minutes (well he won't be playing small minutes in any case)
I think there's a good case to be made that he can go close to or above 50 average. Priced at 45 is that enough to justify a spot in your team?

Adam Elliot $606k
He's under an injury clud at the moment, which is a concern.
If fit he is likely the Knight's starting lock, and with Klemmer and Barnett gone there is a role there up for grabs.
Priced at 42, he averages 49 at lock, and 53 if he plays at least 50 minutes. I think he warrants serious consideration if he's fit to start the year


Stefano Utoikamanu $396k
Had a disappointing 2022 after a big 2021, driopping from a 43 average to 27. Partly due to injur and the Tgers sucking.
Tigers have recruited big in the off-season, so its hard to see what his role/minutes will be.
If he starts then there is surely value there, but with Klemmer/Ofahengaue/Twal around plus Bateman/Papali'i its not guaranteed how he'll be used
Certainly one to look out for on TLT. Not sure there is much else in that price range if he isn't an option (other than Leniu of course)

Emre Guler $367k
Perhaps the other option is Stefano isn't a goer. Player departures mean he may get a starting spot at the Raiders.
40 minutes at prop could push his proced 25 average close to 40. Not the most exciting thing in the world, but could certainly plug a hole in your team if you need it


Ray Stone $257k
Patented 60 minute bench forward role. Maybe not, but if you want a cheap bench middle and you don't want Stone options are Davvy Moale, or hope Murdoch-Masila keeps his starting edge from the Charity Shield
With Dragons on the round 1 bye, BMM would be a risk to take.
Or maybe grab Franklin Pele, who the fuck cares. There will probably be several cheap bench props named in round 1. They'll probably mostly be shit.

mattnz wrote:
You are still a round 13 player short to catch up to me and both you and I would need to trade Haas back in (even though there will be other options instead, like Matterson who I could trade Haas to and not need to trade him back in).

 You would need to use another trade on carrigan to Matterson to catch me for round 13. You are always a trade behind, however you try to imagine it.

Revraiser wrote:
Thanks mate, I always appreciate a bit of egging on. Sensitive lad deep down and all.

Did u reset ur username in recent years or love the lurk ?

Milchcow wrote:
Random fact, Danny Levi didn't play NRL last year, but in 2021 he averaged 55 as starting hooker

Even in 2020 he averaged 35 as starting hooker, and he's only priced at 22

Lukeayee got angry about people getting Tom Starling, how will he feel when we all join the CeLEVIbration

King Assassin wrote:

There's every chance Luciano is back early rounds, Since the Domestic abuse allegations Luciano proposed to his Girlfriend, And she came out and said that she wants the case dropped. Why he continues to be stood down just doesn't make sense. The stood down rule is the worst thing thats ever been brought into the NRL, what ever happened to innocent until proven guilty? they claim the being stood down has nothing to do with their innocence yet they punish players for these charges before there finalised. Take JDB for an example, He missed 3 seasons all because of an girl claim she was sexually assaulted, which turned out to be a lie... thank you for listening to my Ted talk

King Assassin wrote:

There's every chance Luciano is back early rounds, Since the Domestic abuse allegations Luciano proposed to his Girlfriend, And she came out and said that she wants the case dropped. Why he continues to be stood down just doesn't make sense. The stood down rule is the worst thing thats ever been brought into the NRL, what ever happened to innocent until proven guilty? they claim the being stood down has nothing to do with their innocence yet they punish players for these charges before there finalised. Take JDB for an example, He missed 3 seasons all because of an girl claim she was sexually assaulted, which turned out to be a lie... thank you for listening to my Ted talk

mattnz wrote:
I can retain Tapine all season and trade the other MIDs to any other position that I want at a time that works for me. while those that didn't start with Tapine will still need to trade him in. I will have 1 more for round 13 that others won't already have.

Hopgood is another that will work in a similar way, so will have 2 quality Mids right through. How many other players would equally qualify as not requiring a trade all season? 

Simple math for those still missing the obvious point

Let's look at it another way, Haas vs Tapine to start with in round 1. Haas plays 1 more game than Tapine in the first 12 rounds. Assuming they both average similarly and Haas scores a 60 on the week Tapine has his bye and he is the only Raiders player in the team. 

By that round you should have a replacement player capable of 45+ on your bench as 18th man, so you may have lost up to 15 points, but you have saved the trade from Haas to Tapine. Is a trade worth more than 15 points? Of course. Simple math and logic!

King Assassin wrote:Take JDB for an example, He missed 3 seasons all because of an girl claim she was sexually assaulted, which turned out to be a lie... thank you for listening to my Ted talk