NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 6 - We're getting the Carty Party back together

lubedragon wrote:Thoughts on Reed mahoney

For me he’s a wait and see. Can see Nu Brown pinching minutes. I think there’s better value elsewhere to start the season with

Reality check .....

Who are we really hot on that has low ownership, and who is in lots of teams that we are cold on?

AKP 32% pretty sure we are much lower ownership here
HTF 29% much lower here
Teddy 26% expect we are lower ownership here - Dolphins and Warriors first up, could come back to bite us.
Stone 26% - surprised so high still
Boyd at 21% is probably the first that we would have much higher ownership of here, other than Hopgood and Smith who everyone has.

E Butcher 4% - Are we wrong on him as higher owned here
Trindall 3% - We would be higher here
Douehi 7% - In many more teams here
HSS 6%
Carty 9%

mrbrownstone wrote:

syn13 wrote:

It’s not really a POD pick overall, but it certainly seems to be in terms of this forum - I think leaving Garner out is a mistake and people here are overthinking, high chance he’s an 80 minute (or close to) 2nd rower with a decent base on the favorite attacking side of a team that scores points like a basketball team, he’s glued into my team and I don’t expect to worry about what to do with him until way later in the season, if at all.

Yeah this, I just don't get why so many have gone cold on him. Priced at 33, averages 46 in the second row filtering for 40+ minutes, playing in the best attacking team in the comp on their preferred side. It feels like a very low risk, high reward play, I'm struggling to see the downside.

I've been listening to the amateurs TLT podcast and they were also struggling to see him playing 80.

Without using the standard "edges play big minutes" quote - Last year Kikau averaged 75 minutes (before reading to the bottom of this post guess how many times Kikau was subbed last year)* and Liam Martin 70. Why are they suddenly going to play Garner 60 minutes consistently. I may or may not have him in my team, but I wouldn't be concerned about his minutes.

Other things the Amatuers have said. Josh Hodgson is an avoid because he'll lose run metres at the Eels. His last full season he averaged 46 run metres a game. There are reasons to nbe worried about Josh Hodgson, but losing run metres isn't one of them.

I think I must have misheard this one because I thought I heard them say Egan could score 55 points in an 80 minute role, which is only a possibility if we go back to 2021 rules interpretations, in which case my nan could score 40 points a week.



* Here's a fun fact. Kikau was subbed 8 times last year. 4 were HIAs and 1 was a free interchange for foul play. Penrith only spent an interchange to get him off the field 3 times

mattnz wrote:Reality check .....

Who are we really hot on that has low ownership, and who is in lots of teams that we are cold on?

AKP 32% pretty sure we are much lower ownership here
HTF 29% much lower here
Teddy 26% expect we are lower ownership here - Dolphins and Warriors first up, could come back to bite us.
Stone 26% - surprised so high still
Boyd at 21% is probably the first that we would have much higher ownership of here, other than Hopgood and Smith who everyone has.

E Butcher 4% - Are we wrong on him as higher owned here
Trindall 3% - We would be higher here
Douehi 7% - In many more teams here
HSS 6%
Carty 9%

Big names like Teddy will be higher ownership amongst casuals (but also somewhat popular with diehards)

AKP is popular because he is cheap and scores a lot of tries. If there weren't many other options we'd probably have him too

Trindall was only really confirmed as a starter this week. His ownership will rise, but will be limited due to official news being Hynes out short term. We are mainly only big on him because we doubt the official news.

I suspect half the love for Stone comes from the fact that there is a successful Fantasy team called "I like this Ray Stone". There's a lot to be said for brand recognition.

I'm iffy on Egan Butcher, a lot of the stats on him come from a different role and i am not 100% convinced they will translate the way we want them to.

Shady2K wrote:Not a lot keen on Murray - just the price?

Oh I'm keen.

Can someone explain why we are all so high on Boyd? Just not sure if I have missed some big news on him becoming all of a sudden a fantasy points scoring supremo is all

lubedragon wrote:Thoughts on Reed mahoney

Decent if you can fit him in. Most are either getting a "true" gun in Cook or Grant, running with Smith and Boyd, or going cheaper in Hodgson/Kenny. But he's probably five points or maybe more undervalued? Good byes to start the year and should play 80 you would think. Dogs could struggle in the middle though, and Mahoney does like to bounce off a tackle.

ShadowSabre wrote: Can someone explain why we are all so high on Boyd? Just not sure if I have missed some big news on him becoming all of a sudden a fantasy points scoring supremo is all

I’m skipping him. Not cheap enough for the punt. Will be having AJ kicking and Verrals as well.

DPP is handy though

Holy Moly wrote:

Oh I'm keen.

I’m struggling to fit him in at his price but think he’ll start well

I’m favoring Grant to elevate a few points to get closer to Cook. Currently have Haas and Tino as MID guns as I think they’ll be closer to 60 as well which gives more value than Murray at his price

Milchcow wrote:I've been listening to the amateurs TLT podcast and they were also struggling to see him playing 80.

Without using the standard "edges play big minutes" quote - Last year Kikau averaged 75 minutes (before reading to the bottom of this post guess how many times Kikau was subbed last year)*  and Liam Martin 70. Why are they suddenly going to play Garner 60 minutes consistently. I may or may not have him in my team, but I wouldn't be concerned about his minutes.

Don't see why Panthers would start intentionally using a planned change on Garner.

They've got two hookers (kenny probably plays some lock while Soni is on) and Yeo, most games, probably gets a breather (ie while Kenny is at 'lock'). All their changes are being used up on the middle four. JFH and Leota going to play two stints most games.

Garner might be a late sub off for Salmon or something, but thats a 'last ten mins' type of change and seems like something that would be sporadic.?

Mulvy wrote:Haha, from the Sharks forum:

"You know it is kind of wild that because of the body language post there is now a bunch of fantasy/supercoach selecting Trindall for round 1 and ditching Hynes where they might have kept him. It's a godlike power"

To be fair, its not just the "body language post" (which I haven't seen and don't know what it is) but the fact that NRL Physio suggested he had 2 sources that it was more serious than they're letting on. There was also some random dude saying 8 weeks, but I think the NRLPhysio is both the most widely read and most persuasive of the sources

I have a funny feeling that Ilias is gonna be this year's Townsend and punish us all for overlooking.
I reckon another preseason behind him, passes the in a good attacking team test and has a pretty well rounded game.
He is someone I am seriously looking at to free up some cash downgrading Doueihi to.
He could also just be another Foran who does good things but does not score well in Fantasy.
Not sure I have resolved anything here, but thanks for reading.

Milchcow wrote:

To be fair, its not just the "body language post" (which I haven't seen and don't know what it is) but the fact that NRL Physio suggested he had 2 sources that it was more serious than they're letting on. There was also some random dude saying 8 weeks, but I think the NRLPhysio is both the most widely read and most persuasive of the sources

Certainly creates some interest in punting on Trindall and shifting to a Sea Eagle or Panfer after their byes if it goes to shit.

ShadowSabre wrote: Can someone explain why we are all so high on Boyd? Just not sure if I have missed some big news on him becoming all of a sudden a fantasy points scoring supremo is all

This doesn't just go for Boyd, but for any player where you find yourself asking "why do people like him"

Go to www.footystatistics.com
Select the player you are interested in
Filter by the position they are playing this year (restrict to 2022 only if there's enough data)

Look at the average and compare it to the 1st round BE

In this case you see Boyd has a 47 average at halfback, and is priced at 33.

To be a fantasy supremo you don't have to be that good at football if you can kick, tackle and goalkick enough

Boyd can theoretically hit his BE just on tackles (minus missed tackles), kick metres and conversions. Any attacking output is a bonus

Shady2K wrote:Not a lot keen on Murray - just the price?

Falls under the players I love to watch category and also happens to be dope for fantasy.

So he's in my team for two reasons

ShadowSabre wrote:I have a funny feeling that Ilias is gonna be this year's Townsend and punish us all for overlooking.
I reckon another preseason behind him, passes the in a good attacking team test and has a pretty well rounded game.
He is someone I am seriously looking at to free up some cash downgrading Doueihi to.
He could also just be another Foran who does good things but does not score well in Fantasy.
Not sure I have resolved anything here, but thanks for reading.

I'd certainly be more interested if they started awarding points for pushing his outside backs up the field coming out of red zone.

Milchcow wrote:

This doesn't just go for Boyd, but for any player where you find yourself asking  "why do people like him"

Go to www.footystatistics.com
Select the player you are interested in
Filter by the position they are playing this year (restrict to 2022 only if there's enough data)

Look at the average and compare it to the 1st round BE

In this case you see Boyd has a 47 average at halfback, and is priced at 33.

To be a fantasy supremo you don't have to be that good at football if you can kick, tackle and goalkick enough

Boyd can theoretically hit his BE just on tackles (minus missed tackles), kick metres and conversions. Any attacking output is a bonus

I would add, if you've done the above mentioned exercise, and still find yourself scratching your head wondering why people are picking a guy, don't just go along with the crowd like and pick Jack Williams like I did that year.

Milchcow wrote:

Big names like Teddy will be higher ownership amongst casuals (but also somewhat popular with diehards)

I'm struggling to find a gun back other than Teddy that has bonus of Dolphins and Warriors up first

ShadowSabre wrote: Can someone explain why we are all so high on Boyd? Just not sure if I have missed some big news on him becoming all of a sudden a fantasy points scoring supremo is all

Here are some key points I noted down;

Historical average at halfback is 47.3 (he was kicking goals at the time... not sure if he will be the goalkicker) and all with Brimson in the team.

During these games he averaged 338.3 kick metres a game. Brimson has an average of 17 KM's a game when playing full back. Foran has also never been a notable kicker only averaging 130ish a game, and only 64.5 last year (yes next to one of the biggest kickers in the game, but might also have something to do with age/injury). Also Verrills kicking stats may as well not even be mentioned.

His BE is about 33, so even low 40's will get him to 150ishK in price rises, plus the DPP Hooker and okay JS.

TU: Haas + Tino + 61k bank
TD: Murray + Carrigan + 21k bank