NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 11 - The case of the mistrusted team lists

I didn’t pick Uto because I have a suspicion that he may be one of those guys that never quite meets expectations…..not based on any data just based on a hunch

Blain wrote:

Hmm when you think Jazz is building fitness in NSW this week, I honestly can't see Ford keeping 80 minutes in a couple weeks. Webster will have to find a way to give Harris, Walker, Tevaga time in the forward pack, along with Ford, Niuokre and Curran in the second row. Who knows how Webster is going to balance that.

With Ilias, if he can hold a 40 average he'll still make $100k, which is probably enough early in the season, and a handy bench guy?

Or maybe Webster is smart enough to realise Jazz isn't actually any good and leaves him in ressies.

superbucks wrote:Have Uto and seriously considered trading.

Started him because he has potential and signs were there he was ready. Come Sunday he failed to get into the game.

I've been concerned of his minutes but thinking the question is more about his mentality - is he in attack mode. The Tigers will give him the minutes if he's rampaging. Hard to be confident he will fire up, just hope he does, and consequently will need a few rounds to see if there's a spark.

To add, the Tigers pack will perform better, they are too stacked not to. Whether that happens because Uto helped it happen - or reducing Uto's minutes allowed others to do the work - is the question.

mattnz wrote:

Too low scores for your bench and too expensive for EMG. Joffa stealing minutes this week.

I always thought the sarcasm in my posts was quite blatant yet here we are.

superbucks wrote:

To add, the Tigers pack will perform better, they are too stacked not to. Whether that happens because Uto helped it happen - or reducing Uto's minutes allowed others to do the work - is the question.

i thought uto looked to the eye very fit and spritely which was good,

but my word klemmer, twal, and ofa love a hit up, not to mention isiah and which ever other edge they play, Uto really gonna struggle to get the ball, so he better be effective when he gets it,

i have him but he is on the block

I can’t believe it’s only Round 2 and I’m already mulling over the CTR position, I mean I should have known it would happen but was hoping to at least have a month of stress free research

Everyone, including me, who picked the cheap trash centres knew what we were picking. One week later, why abandon those intentions? Unless you think Hammer is going to keep killing it and want to get on now. There's not anything screaming go change up your week one plans to get this bloke in. Maybe Mbye if you're so inclined.

Otherwise, let your cows grow, figure out your centres down the line when the right opportunity comes along.

You only really need HSS or Alamoti to snag a try one week to get things ticking along a bit. And Talau I guess but probably not lol.

Regulator wrote:Everyone, including me, who picked the cheap trash centres knew what we were picking. One week later, why abandon those intentions? Unless you think Hammer is going to keep killing it and want to get on now. There's not anything screaming go change up your week one plans to get this bloke in. Maybe Mbye if you're so inclined.

Otherwise, let your cows grow, figure out your centres down the line when the right opportunity comes along.

You only really need HSS or Alamoti to snag a try one week to get things ticking along a bit. And Talau I guess but probably not lol.

Yep

Regulator wrote:Everyone, including me, who picked the cheap trash centres knew what we were picking. One week later, why abandon those intentions? Unless you think Hammer is going to keep killing it and want to get on now. There's not anything screaming go change up your week one plans to get this bloke in.

Otherwise, let your cows grow, figure out your centres down the line when the right opportunity comes along.

You only really need HSS or Alamoti to snag a try one week to get things ticking along a bit. And Talau I guess but probably not lol.

I think the term cheap trash centres is a bit harsh with HSS/Alamoti. They are young and have 10 games of first grade experience between them, it’s not like they are a Naden/Staines who we know outright are terrible scorers.

We picked those two because they were priced correctly and we had hope that they could provide a decent score from week to week, it didn’t happen week 1 and it’s gonna take all of my willpower to give them another chance

wolfking wrote:

I always thought the sarcasm in my posts was quite blatant yet here we are.

Would you trade out Uto if you had him?

I'm not saying cheap trash centres to somehow insult their potential ability. I'm saying it because for fantasy purposes specifically they are basement, or basically basement, price, unproven centres compared to the premium options. Every year, we mostly all do it, the correct price at centre at the start of the year is the cheapest price unless there's an out of position premium option.

A decent score week to week from a 250k investment in a bloke who has barely played NRL as you point out is not a reasonable expectation. What they put up last week is the realistic expectation each week until they've established themselves, hopefully as good performers. Along the way, there's going to be these 18 20 point outings sprinkled throughout. The hope is at some point on that journey they can put a couple of good games on the board and get us done money to help enable us to go elsewhere.

They're bottom price dart throws that we hope can make some money while we wait to be in a position to get a proper solution to the position that is always the shittiest to deal with. One week in, we have a couple more points to consider. Bird (personally don't see the need to rush it) Hammer (if you think he's turned a corner) or Mbye (because omg he's a hooker now). Otherwise the centre landscape is really no different to when you picked your team last week.

Milchcow wrote:
On cheapies, someone sell me on Chee-Kam

Got a late call up last week, and Arrow missing this week. How long will he start for?
Ford a touch out of my price range, so looking at CHee-Kam or BMM for cheapies

Alternatively I can just keep running with Isaiya Katoa, but it seems that even if he makes cash it won't be much. Maybe if he goes on a try scoring run or something

Host will be available in 2 weeks time, Chee-Kam may well hold the spot on merit until Arrow is back all a gamble I know.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

There is something in NFL fantasy that basically amounts to previous season data being worthless once you have half a season of current year data. I don't think it directly correlates with NRL because they are such different sports (for example in the NFL a running back is only ever a running back with few exceptions where as in the NRL you might have someone move between fullback, centre, halves, wing)

Using this approach would have seen guys like Jo Ofa and Lane be popular pick ups last year. It's hard to turn off the blinders and ignore previous stats which is a big part of the game I need to improve on

It's possibly you I'm paraphrasing then. 2021 is a while ago and different rules then. Recent stats are better than older stats. Some stats are better than no stats. It's the same with evidence based medicine for example. Evidence based anything I suppose.

Mulvy wrote:

It's possibly you I'm paraphrasing then. 2021 is a while ago and different rules then. Recent stats are better than older stats. Some stats are better than no stats. It's the same with evidence based medicine for example. Evidence based anything I suppose.

In trading we use exponential moving averages - where the most recent outcomes have a heavier weighting than earlier outcomes. We could apply a similar principle to reviewing statistics in fantasy.

Regulator wrote:Everyone, including me, who picked the cheap trash centres knew what we were picking. One week later, why abandon those intentions? Unless you think Hammer is going to keep killing it and want to get on now. There's not anything screaming go change up your week one plans to get this bloke in. Maybe Mbye if you're so inclined.

Otherwise, let your cows grow, figure out your centres down the line when the right opportunity comes along.

You only really need HSS or Alamoti to snag a try one week to get things ticking along a bit. And Talau I guess but probably not lol.

If I bring in MBye I'll also have Alamoti, AKP, IKatoa and HSS... seems too much.

mickspicks wrote:

If I bring in MBye I'll also have Alamoti, AKP, IKatoa and HSS... seems too much.

Might have to change ya name mate to Captain Risky

I shouldnt talk still toying with the Shaq idea.

Should I trade one of Preston/Talau/Katoa to HTF?

Camo123 wrote:I decided to do a Rabbits and ask NRL Feedback about the CNK try save on Ponga.

This is their response:

Spoiler:

They should have added, "we will add a phanthom try save to CNK next round's score as a gesture of good will to his owners"

Spectre wrote:Should I trade one of Preston/Talau/Katoa to HTF?

i would if i could, and id prob get rid of I Katoa