NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 31 - So many trade out options, but no trade in ones

mattnz wrote:

Yeah I am planning to hold Hopgood, should get huge scores in each of the origin bye rounds, with RCG, Paulo, likely Matterson out. Probably back to 80 minutes for 70 points in each of those rounds, when other teams are struggling for quality players.

That's a bold play. I just don't see the minutes for him. He looks gassed already only after half a dozen NRL first grade games. He wasn't anything amazing either last week IMO. Paulo back too only makes things murkier.

If I can turn a 50 minute bench prop into the elite centre keeper in Bird and save 90K, I think the trade pretty much does itself.

BCT05 wrote:

Really? What minutes are you expecting?

Can't see him getting more than 45mins max

50-55 at close to 1PPM (the Matterson bench lock role from last year).
They realise they have been flogging Paulo, RCG and Matto, out of necessity when short on quality MIDs, expect he will pick up the extra minutes they have been playing.

Paulo last season averaged 47 minutes, has averaged 61 so far this year.
RCG 60 minutes vs 50 last year
Matto played 73 minutes at lock last week vs 56 average last year

The other guys on the bench have averaged:
Makatoa 20 minutes (including a 0 minute game as he wasn't trusted to step on the field)
Greig played 1 stint of 19 minutes last week due to Paulo missing. Has had 15 minutes off the bench with MID troops missing, except for the week he played 0 minutes. Expect he goes back to 0-10 minutes each week.

Keep in mind that Hopgood has played more minutes than either RCG or Paulo in the opening rounds.

Expected minutes:
RCG 50
Paulo 50
Matto 60
Hopgood 55
Makatoa 15
Greig 10

mattnz wrote:
Expected minutes:
RCG 50
Paulo 50
Matto 60
Hopgood 55
Makatoa 15
Greig 10

you came up with this stuff last week as well and it just didnt happen.

the nsw origin starting forwards arent going to play less mins than the bench new guy

adding paulo back into the mix isnt going to increase hopgoods minutes.

I've been looking at bringing in Bird or Manu. Currently, leaning towards Manu for the higher ceiling. I figure Bird will hover around his price and can be gotten later, while Manu could have a few blinders and then his price gets away.

mattnz wrote:
50-55 at close to 1PPM (the Matterson bench lock role from last year).
They realise they have been flogging Paulo, RCG and Matto, out of necessity when short on quality MIDs, expect he will pick up the extra minutes they have been playing.

Paulo last season averaged 47 minutes, has averaged 61 so far this year.
RCG 60 minutes vs 50 last year
Matto played 73 minutes at lock last week vs 56 average last year

The other guys on the bench have averaged:
Makatoa 20 minutes (including a 0 minute game as he wasn't trusted to step on the field)
Greig played 1 stint of 19 minutes last week due to Paulo missing. Has had 15 minutes off the bench with MID  troops missing, except for the week he played 0 minutes. Expect he goes back to 0-10 minutes each week.

Keep in mind that Hopgood has played more minutes than either RCG or Paulo in the opening rounds.

Expected minutes:
RCG 50
Paulo 50
Matto 60
Hopgood 55
Makatoa 15
Greig 10

So basically, what you are wishing will happen. Got it.

wolfking wrote:

That's a bold play.  I just don't see the minutes for him.  He looks gassed already only after half a dozen NRL first grade games.  He wasn't anything amazing either last week IMO.  Paulo back too only makes things murkier.

If I can turn a 50 minute bench prop into the elite centre keeper in Bird and save 90K, I think the trade pretty much does itself.

I have gone Cobbo and Sami for CTRs. Carrigan is looking like a trade out ahead of Hopgood, he is losing cash and a definite trade out by round 13. I will look at getting Bird at some point too, as I can move one of them to WFB.

Hopgood wasn't receiving the ball last week when looking for work, was constantly the decoy runner, was really weird. As long as that doesn't continue, he should come right.

Is Bird/Lemmy overkill at CTR?. I expect most teams would be playing one of those plus a Alamoti/ITT.

What happened to Sami’s TB numbers!

4 TBs through the first 3 games and then 24 TBs in the last 2 games.
Much higher run metres as a result of the extra TBs.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Is Bird/Lemmy overkill at CTR?. I expect most teams would be playing one of those plus a Alamoti/ITT.

I'm having a think about this and neither of Lemu/Alamoti have a bye in the near future so the question needs to be 'is Bird scoring enough to sit in your 14-17 as both a scorer and CTR back up?'.

The answer is probably yes given he is averaging around 50. You can move him down to CTR later on.

In saying that I'm wondering if it might be better in the short term to go with someone like Hudson Young who probably has a bit more value and potentially a higher ceiling

mattnz wrote:
They realise they have been flogging Paulo, RCG and Matto

The rookie not used to NRL tempo has played the most minutes and looked gassed every game, but it's the 3 Origin-calibre players getting flogged. Matto started round 4 and has only played one game this season in the middle. Paulo just had a mandated rest.

Could happen but you are taking the best case scenario and spinning it as the most likely scenario.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:What happened to Sami’s TB numbers!

4 TBs through the first 3 games and then 24 TBs in the last 2 games.
Much higher run metres as a result of the extra TBs.

I'm sure it's sustainable.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Is Bird/Lemmy overkill at CTR?. I expect most teams would be playing one of those plus a Alamoti/ITT.

I've just thrown out my trades from one page ago and done it. Looks sexy. But also may have paid close to top dollar for Bird.

wolfking wrote:

So basically, what you are wishing will happen.  Got it.

MattNZ is correct here. This is very consistent with Brad Arthur's thinking in the past. It was me who put the minutes split up last week and everyone was saying I was wrong that Carty would get 80.

Well feck me silly and call me Nostradamus - the minutes played out quite closely except that Matto got slightly more than expected and Hopgood slightly less. and Makatoa and Grieg were swtiched around.

I reckon 50-60 minutes for both Hopgood & Matto is a fair prediction when Paulo returns

Predicted ==> Actual

Campbell Gillard 60 ==> 57
Hodgson  50 ==> 52
Grieg 30 ==> 19
Cartwright 80 ==> 80
Lane 80 ==> 80
Matterson 60 ==> 73

Hopgood 60 ==> 53
Hands 30 ==> 28
Makatoa 20 ==> 30
Murchie 10 ==> 9

robelgordo wrote:

I'm sure it's sustainable.

Oh yeah probably evens up more in the middle at a 6/7 average. Just stating its quite the jump

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
Oh yeah probably evens up more in the middle at a 6/7 average. Just stating its quite the jump

Sorry, was not intended as a dig at you.

I watched the last Titans game, it was mainly 2 runs in about 5 mins. Although he was heavily involved before and after too, more of the slapsy kind of TBs outside that 5 mins.

I think I want to trade in McInnes + Crossland, but no easy way to get them in.
Want to ditch BMM but have no funds so would need to be paired with a downgrade/cashout to get anyone worth having.

Its basically ditch Uto+Loiero or Carrigan+BMM

Ditching Uto+BMM is the better tradeout, but that would have to change the trade ins. Could perhaps forego McInnes, I think after 3 weeks he may be a sell once Finucane comes back.

Have to make sure I have Teddy funds soon. I'll run Warbrick or ITT this week but want to get that fixed up soon enough so I don't have to rely on them

Fantasy Amateurs bye round strategy article

https://amateursfantasysports.com/2023/04/02/origin-and-bye-round-strategy/?fbclid=IwAR0nmIQ5yVfoUmC3E0BhA0HUmVoZZ6IGdmE-u8bmF0JOJ9qZctVPLBokebA

Note: Drafted a week or 2 ago

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:What happened to Sami’s TB numbers!

4 TBs through the first 3 games and then 24 TBs in the last 2 games.
Much higher run metres as a result of the extra TBs.

Did a lot of sideways running, crabwalk ala Bird

Mann is Crosslands only competition? Or is it going to be a split with Mann spelling him for the last 20?

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

MattNZ is correct here. This is very consistent with Brad Arthur's thinking in the past. It was me who put the minutes split up last week and everyone was saying I was wrong that Carty would get 80.

Well feck me silly and call me Nostradamus - the minutes played out quite closely except that Matto got slightly more than expected and Hopgood slightly less. and Makatoa and Grieg were swtiched around.

I reckon 50-60 minutes for both Hopgood & Matto is a fair prediction when Paulo returns

Predicted ==> Actual

Campbell Gillard 60 ==> 57
Hodgson  50 ==> 52
Grieg 30 ==> 20
Cartwright 80 ==> 80
Lane 80 ==> 80
Matterson 60 ==> 73

Hopgood 60 ==> 53
Hands 30 ==> 28
Makatoa 20 ==> 30
Murchie 10 ==> 9

I think the main point is here regardless of the spread of minutes, whichever way you look at it, it's 717K for a player moved back to the bench that could play anywhere from 40-60 minutes. Even if things go his way, the money he's made can be utilised better elsewhere. He scored 39 on the weekend and also had a 35 point game playing 55 minutes in round 3. I've played this game long enough to know the signs of taking the money and running. To expect him to play from the bench and score an average of 50-55 for his current price tag is something I'm not gambling on. Holding him would be a non aggressive play I would have done in the past that would be nothing but detrimental to my rankings.