NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 46 - You say which fantasy group is at the top? I Can't Believe It's Not Butters

Aardvark wrote:Curious how people who have been max trading are going to field 13 in 13 and then back up for the next six rounds plus solidify a decent team for the run home?

Had a look today and I reckon if you can get 10-11 (including 7-8 decent scorers) you’ll be doing pretty well otherwise your going to run out of steam (i.e. trades) before the byes are out. Also those 8 trades you get @ 20 need to cover injuries/hia’s/byes for the run home with maybe a couple of luxury trades.

I think it’s going to be a pretty challenging season from here.

Yeah that's the plan for me, targeting 11 for round 13, and then 12-13 for R16

Post-trades this week I have 15 trades left and the following players for the first 2 byes (Origin-risk players are underlined)

9 current R13 players: Robson, Hopgood, Tatola, Ford, SJ, Ikat, Bird, Miller, Walsh

10 current R16 players: Robson, Luke, Hopgood, Cheese, Hosking, Hynes, Oloapu, Manu, Miller, Bula

Milchcow wrote:


People who don't own Cook are looking to bring him in soon. Its too late to avoid losing the cash he has already lost, do you want to trade him out now if 3 weeks later he is a buy?

If it wasn't for origin he'd be a clear hold in my view. So now I am half tempted to hold on the off chance he doesn't make the blues squad (which he almost certainly will, but its only 2 more weeks to hold)
Reece Robson is the obvious replacement and he isn't about to shoot up in price, so a direct trade should be possible in a week or 2 anyway.

Also to say Cook's team is too good is rubbish. Souths were also quite a good team last year and Cook averaged 66
His scores last year against the 5 teams you listed were 66, 70, 74, 72, 77, 63, 68, 85 (3 tries in those 8 games)

2 weeks ago he was denied 2 tries by the bunker (one a bit harsher than the other) so he's fine for getting himself in the right position. Its not going to be a big surprise

If I didn't own Cook, I would definitely not be looking to buy him now, I would be waiting for round 21 to get him (and only if I can't get Grant who's the best hooker in fantasy by a long way)

If not for Origin I would be holding him most likely, but he would have to have been scoring much better for me to carry him over Origin (which he will make, Freddy won't drop him), given that he misses at least round 13, 16, 19, 20 and is a chance of missing one or both of round 14 or 17.

Robson on the other hand only misses 15 and 19, so that's 2 extra games (best case for Cook) or 3 extra games (if Cook rests in either 14 or 17), so even if Robson averages slightly less, he'll win out in terms of total points with those extra games.

There's also an eye test factor, Robson just looks busy while Cook doesn't. I owned Cook for most of last year and he looks very different, something just isn't right.

Aardvark wrote:Curious how people who have been max trading are going to field 13 in 13 and then back up for the next six rounds plus solidify a decent team for the run home?

Had a look today and I reckon if you can get 10-11 (including 7-8 decent scorers) you’ll be doing pretty well otherwise your going to run out of steam (i.e. trades) before the byes are out. Also those 8 trades you get @ 20 need to cover injuries/hia’s/byes for the run home with maybe a couple of luxury trades.

I think it’s going to be a pretty challenging season from here.

I’ve limited myself to only bringing in players that play 13 and 16 for the next few weeks to cut down on mid bye trades, so that means only considering players of a few teams for the next few weeks and aiming for dual

Bethany_B wrote:

Yeah that's the plan for me, targeting 11 for round 13, and then 12-13 for R16

Post-trades this week I have 15 trades left and the following players for the first 2 byes (Origin-risk players are underlined)

9 current R13 players: Robson, Hopgood, Tatola, Ford, SJ, Ikat, Bird, Miller, Walsh

10 current R16 players: Robson, Luke, Hopgood, Cheese, Hosking, Hynes, Oloapu, Manu, Miller, Bula

R13 I have

Granville
Horsburgh Harris Ese'ese
Luki Hopgood
Nikorima Crossland
Tabuai-Fidow Bird
Walsh/Ponga Dunster Te Whare [will trade in if selected next week]

Community team captaincy vote

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2203-r11-lineup

Enchanted Glossy Flamingo wrote:I think 16 will be the true test of how well the top teams flex. I feel like you can’t get quality and quantity with the teams available without some heavy trading in and out

Think I'm going to be ok for 13/14/16. Haven't even looked at 19 yet, that's going to be the traumatic one, particularly if trades are running out by then.

Bethany_B wrote:

Yeah that's the plan for me, targeting 11 for round 13, and then 12-13 for R16

Post-trades this week I have 15 trades left and the following players for the first 2 byes (Origin-risk players are underlined)

9 current R13 players: Robson, Hopgood, Tatola, Ford, SJ, Ikat, Bird, Miller, Walsh

10 current R16 players: Robson, Luke, Hopgood, Cheese, Hosking, Hynes, Oloapu, Manu, Miller, Bula

You can't play both Robson and Luke. (So that's those 15 points out of the window)

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

I’ve saved 1

Next week I’ll save all three

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

I don't know about you but Bird played at CTR in my team and scored more than 60 without a try or try assist

Read what I wrote again. He wasn't playing at CTR.

Aardvark wrote:Curious how people who have been max trading are going to field 13 in 13 and then back up for the next six rounds plus solidify a decent team for the run home?

Had a look today and I reckon if you can get 10-11 (including 7-8 decent scorers) you’ll be doing pretty well otherwise your going to run out of steam (i.e. trades) before the byes are out. Also those 8 trades you get @ 20 need to cover injuries/hia’s/byes for the run home with maybe a couple of luxury trades.

I think it’s going to be a pretty challenging season from here.

as someone who wants to have all hands on deck in every round, right now i have 11 R13, 9 R16 and 10 R19, and outside of any extra fires to put out, plan on going into R13 with 13, 10 and 12 players in those rounds respectively, and i will never be more than 8 trades away from the team i want to ride to Round 27, i think people that arent maximizing their bye teams are leaving points on the table, I'm usually someone who doesn't bother too much with bye planning because in the big byes of years past, fielding good teams for each one required turning your entire roster upside-down and then rightside-up, I'm focusing on it this year because i think there's potential to pick up a lot of points over people that have kept it in the 'too hard' basket, i think fielding 13 in each big bye without setting your trade bank or your team on fire will be a lot easier than people think it will be.

R13 - 12 players - Robson, Horse, JDB, Keppie, Host, Null, iKat, Moses, Bird, Hammer (maybe origin?), CNK, Miller

R16 - 8 players - Robson, NAS, Twal, Keppie, Preston, Moses, Manu, Miller, Bula

A lot can change between now and then. A few trades more than likely between 13 and 16, looking to the run home. Players like Keppie and Host are trade outs sooner rather than later, but holding... monitoring Hammer, Preston... both have upside... Robson for the byes, but hopefully can either hold or earn cash to get Grant for the run home.

Bethany_B wrote:

If I didn't own Cook, I would definitely not be looking to buy him now, I would be waiting for round 21 to get him (and only if I can't get Grant who's the best hooker in fantasy by a long way)

If not for Origin I would be holding him most likely, but he would have to have been scoring much better for me to carry him over Origin (which he will make, Freddy won't drop him), given that he misses at least round 13, 16, 19, 20 and is a chance of missing one or both of round 14 or 17.

Robson on the other hand only misses 15 and 19, so that's 2 extra games (best case for Cook) or 3 extra games (if Cook rests in either 14 or 17), so even if Robson averages slightly less, he'll win out in terms of total points with those extra games.

There's also an eye test factor, Robson just looks busy while Cook doesn't. I owned Cook for most of last year and he looks very different, something just isn't right.

There is nothing wrong with Cook, compared to last year he is down an average of 2 tackles, 9 metres gained, 1 tackle bust and 1 extra missed tackle. The big difference is last year he scored an unsustainable 8 tries in 20 games, of course if you paid 945k for a 55 average it is understandable you'd be annoyed with him. If he scoots over for a try or 2 that average will shoot right back up, I do agree with you though it does seem Souths game plan is get the ball out wide to Walker and Mitchell ASAP.

rhinoceroo wrote:

You can't play both Robson and Luke. (So that's those 15 points out of the window)

Never mind that I forgot about it. Soni sucks so no real loss there (and hopefully a cheapie in a different position emerges so I can be rid of him)

Robertneville wrote:

There is nothing wrong with Cook, compared to last year he is down an average of 2 tackles, 9 metres gained, 1 tackle bust and 1 extra missed tackle. The big difference is last year he scored an unsustainable 8 tries in 20 games, of course if you paid 945k for a 55 average it is understandable you'd be annoyed with him. If he scoots over for a try or 2 that average will shoot right back up, I do agree with you though it does seem Souths game plan is get the ball out wide to Walker and Mitchell ASAP.

I paid 845k for him in round 7, so I've only had half of the price dropping but I'm still just not convinced with him. Last year he would always find a way to either rack up a ton of base or get attack when he didn't get much base.

He's also so lowly owned that him scoring shit is disproportionately hurting my rank compared to if a highly owned player was scoring similarly bad. That's the risk you take with PODs and I'm no longer willing to take that risk.

I've maxed traded this year so only doing one this week.
Couchman - host
Not the most exciting trade but couch isn't doing shit and host can hopefully average 40 from here on out.

I was just looking at my Sloan/Hammer to Tohu/Oloapu trade, frowning, knowing I'd have to play both Oloapu and Soni Luke this week. I'd come to accept it was just what had to be done this week.

BUT, then I was hit with a cheapie I'd not been thinking about at all for this week... especially since his 9.

But I realised I could do Sloan/Hammer/S.Luke to Su'a/Ponga/Oloapu.

Is this a better option?

I'm not wild about Tohu's bye next week, but I was at peace with it to get a keeper, fitness pending.

But Su'a seems to be travelling along pretty nicely, doesn't have a bye next week and allows me to play Ponga instead of Soni Luke, which, surely, has to be a good thing?

Other option is to just go with plan A and trade out Luke for Whare next week, if he's named? And get Ponga another day, once his price has dropped even further...

When I pen that, I feel more inclined to go with Plan A because if I go with Plan B and Whare is a must-buy next week, I may actually not have anyone I'd be willing to move on, pending injuries this week. So do I just keep Luke this week for that trade next week, as Ponga isn't going anywhere, price-wise? But I sure would be happier playing Ponga this week over Luke...

Will be trading out Ford. I know a lot of people here are going with HopGood but I'm leaning towards Friz. I'm not liking the minute uncertainty of Hop. Friz has good bye coverage and stats are pretty decent ~50ish
Am I missing something?

Bethany_B wrote:

Yeah that's the plan for me, targeting 11 for round 13, and then 12-13 for R16

Post-trades this week I have 15 trades left and the following players for the first 2 byes (Origin-risk players are underlined)

9 current R13 players: Robson, Hopgood, Tatola, Ford, SJ, Ikat, Bird, Miller, Walsh

10 current R16 players: Robson, Luke, Hopgood, Cheese, Hosking, Hynes, Oloapu, Manu, Miller, Bula

In some ways it seems more important what combinations of clubs you're going with rather than the raw numbers in the first round of the byes, and setting your 21 (rather than just your 13) up right in R13 is the most important thing in saving trades over the whole period.

I've had half an eye on the early bye, but have just now done some proper planning for the whole.period... and if I get the R13 set up right think I can get through to R20 with full teams in the big byes (missing one centre in R16 but whatever) and 18 in the small byes using only three trades, all while keeping Cleary, Haas and Fifita.

Of course, this is ideal world stuff without injuries, suspensions, surprise Origin call-ups, nightclub toilet incidents etc., and a couple of compromises need to be made (need a Cowboys mid, and if Cotter is too expensive or at Origin and Lolo isn't back it would have to be Hess), and a couple of trades at the edge of the squad will still probably be used for cows, but the point is that - unlike previous bye periods where you were trying to get close to 17 players with half the teams not playing- you don't have to recycle your whole squad and might not have to make a frightening amount of trades to field decent numbers. The *quality* of those numbers though depends on your team value going into the period...

Grant
Haas Murray Horse
Hosking Preston
Cleary Boyd
Bird Manu
Miller Teddy AKP

Cheese EKatoa Luki Granville
Nully Ford IKatoa ITT

So far my numbers are:

R13: Granville, Horse, Ford, Luki, IKatoa, Bird, Nully, Miller and maybe ITT (8 or 9)
R16: Granville, Smith, Hosking, Preston, Miller and Manu (6) [also have EKatoa and Luki]

21 trades left, 62k itb

Thinking of going EKatoa and Murray to JDB and Hopgood but to finance that I'd need to go either:

ITT down to Val but that's risky with the bye, and I'd still have to play Granville this week or
Ford down to anyone under 495k

Looking like 11 is the minimum for R13 at this stage then. R16 is a wee while away, so happy to counter that when it comes as things will be thrown at us.

Which combo will score more pts this week?

TU: Bird + Carty
TD: Bird + Billy Smith

Can't lopp as no CTR cover =[