NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 49 - Celebrating Indigenous Round

Stats, Breakevens and more
https://footystatistics.com/

R12 Breakevens

Spoiler:

2023 Team planner
https://www.mediafire.com/file/e1ovaxv0tqj6lhz/2023+Team+Planner+v0.1.xlsm/file

Bye chart



Purple Monkey Dishwasher

2023 Lord of the Byes [Registrations Open]
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2195-lord-of-the-byes-3

2023 Autofill
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2068-2023-autofill-league

2023 Community Team
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/f12-celeb-community-team

2023 Fantasy Draft
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2069-nrlff-2023-fantasy-draft-league

2023 Fantasy Fantasy
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2088-fantasy-fantasy-2023

2023 Late Team Mail
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2106-nrl-team-lists-and-late-mail-2023

2023 Post of the Year nominations
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2145-2023-post-of-the-year-nominations

Uno

Just a reminder;

This is the last week for Registering for the Lord of the Byes comp.

Details here:
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2195-lord-of-the-byes-3

I think we need to pay some respect to the jerk circle. Oloapu is now starting, due to our collective efforts.

my tv broke wrote:I think we need to pay some respect to the jerk circle. Oloapu is now starting, due to our collective efforts.

Does it end up equating to the same if he starts but is replaced by Reynolds at the 50th minute (to finish the game)?

easytiger wrote:

Does it end up equating to the same if he starts but is replaced by Reynolds at the 50th minute (to finish the game)?

There will be no further questions.

my tv broke wrote:

There will be no further questions.

Sorry
As you were

Burbo is probably not going hit his BE this week right?

80mins... 24 points

Tatola and Sele overkill? Any idea of minutes in Round 13?

Possibly 50 minutes each with Murray, Cook, Arrow* at Origin.

Hosking to Tapine
Granville to Edwards

Looking like my trades this week and then probably Boyd to Robson/Liddle next week

Original plan for this week was going to be:

Hosking, Alamoti, Granville -> Hopgood, Burbo, H. Edwards

But the Papalii retirement and Joe O signing has me a bit spooked on Hopgood.

Wondering if it's worth just doing Hosking to Edwards + 322k bank this week. Means a slightly weaker 17 this week (although Alamoti over Burbo is probably a net positive) but gives me an extra chance to get a free look at Burbo and make sure Hopgood definitely doesn't make origin. Also get an extra price rise out of Alamoti and Granville hopefully.

Then next week, Alamoti, Granville, Boyd, Loiero -> Burbo, Tohu & two of Matto/Young/Hopgood/Horse once we know who's in and out of the origin squads.

Worth it, or just pull the trigger this week? Hopgood should be pretty safe right?

Chewie wrote:Burbo is probably not going hit his BE this week right?

80mins... 24 points

I'm thinking he will (if he actually lines up at edge)

Those NSW cup stats being thrown about were from 2021 when he was 19.

There is pretty much SFA relevant data to make a judgement on so it's a gut call (and a pretty low stakes one at that) I'm going based on his game last week where he was pretty involved in his time on the field.

He is a base priced starter filling in for an injury (Think VTF who people were mad for except it's not a one week injury) who could be useful over the byes.

If you have 13 trades left it's not a great idea, if you have around 20 then it's not as big a deal.

mrbrownstone wrote:Original plan for this week was going to be:

Hosking, Alamoti, Granville -> Hopgood, Burbo, H. Edwards

But the Papalii retirement and Joe O signing has me a bit spooked on Hopgood.

Wondering if it's worth just doing Hosking to Edwards + 322k bank this week. Means a slightly weaker 17 this week (although Alamoti over Burbo is probably a net positive) but gives me an extra chance to get a free look at Burbo and make sure Hopgood definitely doesn't make origin. Also get an extra price rise out of Alamoti and Granville hopefully.

Then next week, Alamoti, Granville, Boyd, Loiero -> Burbo, Tohu & two of Matto/Young/Hopgood/Horse once we know who's in and out of the origin squads.

Worth it, or just pull the trigger this week? Hopgood should be pretty safe right?

I'm going to wait on Hopgood even though I think there is only a very very small chance he is picked. Decided to just get Ipap in for Hosking (same bye coverage better player) and pick up Hopgood next week.

Aardvark wrote:

I'm thinking he will (if he actually lines up at edge)

Those NSW cup stats being thrown about were from 2021 when he was 19.

There is pretty much SFA relevant data to make a judgement on so it's a gut call (and a pretty low stakes one at that) I'm going based on his game last week where he was pretty involved in his time on the field.

He is a base priced starter filling in for an injury (Think VTF who people were mad for except it's not a one week injury) who could be useful over the byes.

If you have 13 trades left it's not a great idea, if you have around 20 then it's not as big a deal.

Agree, I wouldn't take much from those NSW cups stats.

Reserve grade stats aren't always translatable anyway, and that is a super small sample from two years ago.

Aardvark wrote:

I'm thinking he will (if he actually lines up at edge)

Those NSW cup stats being thrown about were from 2021 when he was 19.

There is pretty much SFA relevant data to make a judgement on so it's a gut call (and a pretty low stakes one at that) I'm going based on his game last week where he was pretty involved in his time on the field.

He is a base priced starter filling in for an injury (Think VTF who people were mad for except it's not a one week injury) who could be useful over the byes.

If you have 13 trades left it's not a great idea, if you have around 20 then it's not as big a deal.

Scored 39 in 80 mins on the edge in the preseason game against the Bunnies. That's probably more relevant than NSW cup stats from when he was 19.

easytiger wrote:

Purple Monkey Dishwasher

Simpsons easter egg

Everyone talking about the R13 WFBs has forgotten the one and only








Blake Taaffe

Hi all, apologies for this post in advance but I have just returned to land after 6 days at sea with no reception and need some astute summary of what I've missed (you guys are the best ).

Looks like it was a tough week for everyone, so I was absolutely stoked to see a green arrow on the rankings for me after a solid 970 points.

From what I've been able to gather, looks like everyone is panicking on Manu, Miller and Hosking. I own all three and have burned through my trades so they'll all be holds for me. Can trade Hosking to Tohu next week. No other raging fires means I likely miss out on HEdwards and Burbo, and probably too late (and sideways) for me to trade in Luki. Are there any other obvious buys after last round and TLT?

Leaves me with the following (bold play Round 13):

JMK
Haas, Horse, Sele
Hosking, Hopgood,
Cleary, Hynes
Bird, Lemuelu
Miller, Drinkwater, Bula

I.Katoa, Difita, Cheese, Oloapu

Manu, Ford, SJ, Billy Smith


I'm fairly confident that holding on Trades for the week is the right move but please feel free to point out anything glaringly obvious. I'm sore, tired and have had next to no preparation for this round.

Love you all


N.B. If any Kiwis every get the chance to go fishing at the Three Kings Islands north of NZ, do it! Absolutely incredible fishing and completely untouched. Very fortunate the weather held out to finally let us get out there.

I’m re thinking on Luki now with Luciano having gotten off and Luciano been braining it at training. Could see Luciano starting in a couple of weeks with Nanai with Luki off the bench in a 50-55mins role.

I’m thinking the better play might be Tatola 70k cheaper and more money to make both probs gonna get up to 600k? Luki probs 80k to make Tatola 130-140k to make?

Thoughts?

my tv broke wrote:

Agree, I wouldn't take much from those NSW cups stats.

Reserve grade stats aren't always translatable anyway, and that is a super small sample from two years ago.

Liddle scored 76 and 73 in his two weeks in NSW cup with a try each game, are you trying to tell me I can't bank on a 75 this week? Fake news.