NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 49 - Celebrating Indigenous Round

mattnz wrote:
Cotter will be playing origin

I didn't realise they had confirmed some of the Origin squads yet, care to post the source?

wolfking wrote:

Yeah, probably will lean Miller too.  I have Ted on the bench for a potential dud score loop but maybe Miller is actually a better bet to go in there instead.

Surely Ted can at least crack a 40......

Another way of looking at it, rather than try to guess who puts up a dud score (if anyone), is, which player would give me the biggest rank rise, if they put up a dud score and I was able to dodge it. And I think the answer is Bula. Nearly everyone has him and it's likely that most will play him. And that way, I don't need to cheer for him against my Cowboys either. I like it.

It's a tight time frame for making a decision though, because IKatoa plays the game straight after Bula. Which is possibly a reason to stick with Miller, means I can likely wait for updates before making the call. Maybe I'll also let gin make the decision, haha.

Jumping Marlin wrote:

For some reason, this made me thinks of "Posts Per Day" PPD metric for some of you legends.  You're at 7.8.  Behind MTB who is at 8.9.
Mulvy at 7.4 and 41 days away from hitting legend status based on historic PPD.  But given we're in season, should be quicker than that.

I've just calculated that I am 5,860 days away from Immortal status at the current rate (or approximately 16 years).
Is this a sign that I need to drink more or post more or drink and post more?

easytiger wrote:

I didn't realise they had confirmed some of the Origin squads yet, care to post the source?

Cows said the other day Lolo and Neame should be good to go for rnd 13 so they probably offset cotter possible/likely absense anyway.

Mulvy wrote:

Another way of looking at it, rather than try to guess who puts up a dud score (if anyone), is, which player would give me the biggest rank rise, if they put up a dud score and I was able to dodge it. And I think the answer is Bula. Nearly everyone has him and it's likely that most will play him. And that way, I don't need to cheer for him against my Cowboys either. I like it.

It's a tight time frame for making a decision though, because IKatoa plays the game straight after Bula. Which is possibly a reason to stick with Miller, means I can likely wait for updates before making the call. Maybe I'll also let gin make the decision, haha.

Miller still in ~80% of the top 2k teams and the most likely to shit the bed with A) Ponga and B) Sharks - although it feels like players often rise to the occasion when they first play their old club (I have nothing to back this up).

I seem to often be in the tight timeframe loop situation - I tend to make a loop decision about 60-70 minutes into the first game, which is a great way to trigger said player to either stop scoring (if they're being looped in), or get mega junk points (if being looped out), and then finalise it around fulltime.

Given it's either obviously a keep the score situation (e.g. 50+) or a don't keep it situation, the updates don't tend to ultimately matter that much, what's 4 points here or there, so even in back to back games, fulltime gives you a good 10+ minutes to lock it in, which is plenty.

Tanah Boyd > Hynes

Is this a dumb move? I know origin is coming up etc. Feels maybe a bit silly to bring Hynes in now with a high chance of origin selection, but... it's Hynes you know. And a straight swap.

mickspicks wrote:Tanah Boyd > Hynes

Is this a dumb move? I know origin is coming up etc. Feels maybe a bit silly to bring Hynes in now with a high chance of origin selection, but... it's Hynes you know. And a straight swap.

Not if hynes throws up a banner tomorrow

What's the easiest way to paste a table from excel into a post?

Tommy_gun wrote:What's the easiest way to paste a table from excel into a post?

Press Switch Editor Mode BUTTON (BOTTOM RIGHT)  THEN PASTE

my tv broke wrote:

Not if hynes throws up a banner tomorrow

Big baller move...

mickspicks wrote:Tanah Boyd > Hynes

Is this a dumb move? I know origin is coming up etc. Feels maybe a bit silly to bring Hynes in now with a high chance of origin selection, but... it's Hynes you know. And a straight swap.

Hynes seems indisputably one of the top two scorers in Fantasy, so it's always going to be a nice points upgrade;

BUT
If he is selected for Origin 2, he misses at least 3 of the next 6 rounds, if not-selected he misses 2 games.

He is averaging 75.7 from seven games, but has only played against two current top-8 teams.
His scores against those two teams were incidentally his two lowest scores to date: 69 v Warriors, 37 v Dolphins (a 53 average from a 2 game sample)

After the Knights he plays two top-8 teams in Brisbane and Melbourne.
Melbourne have been the most miserly team so far at giving up fantasy points to halves (-8.6 vs average), the Bronco's are the third least conceding points to halves (-6.6 vs average).

While there's never exactly a bad time to get an elite fantasy player, in my opinion; this is the closest to a bad time to get Nicho Hynes (especially at close to full price).
Still, he's capable of anything, but suspect you can do more with the money

easytiger wrote:

Hynes seems indisputably one of the top two scorers in Fantasy, so it's always going to be a nice points upgrade;

BUT
If he is selected for Origin 2, he misses at least 3 of the next 6 rounds, if not-selected he misses 2 games.

He is averaging 75.7 from seven games, but has only played against two current top-8 teams.
His scores against those two teams were incidentally his two lowest scores to date: 69 v Warriors, 37 v Dolphins (a 53 average from a 2 game sample)

After the Knights he plays two top-8 teams in Brisbane and Melbourne.
Melbourne have been the most miserly team so far at giving up fantasy points to halves (-8.6 vs average), the Bronco's are the third least conceding points to halves (-6.6 vs average).

While there's never exactly a bad time to get an elite fantasy player, in my opinion; this is the closest to a bad time to get Nicho Hynes (especially at close to full price).
Still, he's capable of anything, but suspect you can do more with the money

Appreciate the advice. Similar to the thoughts I was having. Whilst it's a small sample size, you're right, it's probably not the right time to get him. Even if he does tonne up against the knights this weekend.

Probably best to just hold trades and see who is selected for origin. Go from there. But it's mighty tempting to just pull the trigger on a set and forget trade.

For those trying to decide which origin players to trade out, I have compiled some data on players backing up after origin last year.

2022 data:

For comparison we can also take a look at the turn around between origin and club matches this year.

2023 turn arounds:

If an Origin player gets Category 1 HIA they will miss R14 and R15 which is important to note (except for Dogs v Eels)

Origin backups usually depend on niggles, ladder position rather than straight out days from Origin. Also 1st game is Adelaide which is extra travel most likely

Camo123 wrote:If an Origin player gets Category 1 HIA they will miss R14 and R15 which is important to note (except for Dogs v Eels)

Origin backups usually depend on niggles, ladder position rather than straight out days from Origin. Also 1st game is Adelaide which is extra travel most likely

Same is true for any category 1 HIA in game 2 (misses 17 and 18) or game 3 (misses 20 and 21)

Tommy_gun wrote:For those trying to decide which origin players to trade out, I have compiled some data on players backing up after origin last year.

2022 data:

For comparison we can also take a look at the turn around between origin and club matches this year.

2023 turn arounds:

Pretty sure the reduced minutes for Payne Haas in R14 was him doing the AC joint in his shoulder - so probably can't read too much into the reduced minutes on that one

All I want is Carrigan to play 60+ minutes in Round 14

mickspicks wrote:

Appreciate the advice. Similar to the thoughts I was having. Whilst it's a small sample size, you're right, it's probably not the right time to get him. Even if he does tonne up against the knights this weekend.

Probably best to just hold trades and see who is selected for origin. Go from there. But it's mighty tempting to just pull the trigger on a set and forget trade.

I'm loathe to tell anyone not to buy Hynes - like you say, he could put up a big score this weekend (Knights have actually been fairly middle of the road for conceding fantasy points), IF he only played 2 of the next 5 games after this week, then your overall points might benefit more from a gun (or two) that plays 4 games in that time

Milchcow wrote:
If we are talking crazy hypotheticals, if Cook didn't make origin, how many people would trade him in next week?


Note I have no expectations that this will actually happen

Already have a round 13 hooker and I'd trade Cook in + probably captain him

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Already have a round 13 hooker and I'd trade Cook in + probably captain him

SJ or the MIDs (Tohu/JDB/Matterson) should be perfectly fine captains