NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 55 - Big red and the KP comeback

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
Cheers mate. That’s the sort of confirmation I was after haha

Look, i'm probably also very wrong, so keep that in mind.

BCT05 wrote:

Although, just realised rd20 Dragons and Raiders both have the bye. 

A lot of us will have JDB, Bird and Horse/Tapine already so Liddle would be 4 not playing plus origin backup risk. That doesn't look good for a Liddle trade in at all (Unless maybe Bird ends up needing ditching).

Yep, that is my reservation with picking Liddle. I already have 3 on the bye for that round, and all 3 are in the keeper category

my tv broke wrote:

Look, i'm probably also very wrong, so keep that in mind.

Haha it’s all good I’ll make the decision based on last years stats and wether he picks up a niggle slash injury

imo you should only be buying players that play rd. 16. it may mean you have to make a few compromises like missing out on tempting purchases but it's the price you have to pay.

I have 8 for rd16 at the moment and I think I'll be fine with just getting to 10, maybe 11. Rd19 looks like it should be pretty manageable. 

As things stand there's really only a few players in my team that look viable trade outs for another rd16 number: Nikorima, Ford and possibly Boyd. 

Mind you there will probably be at least one injury or dropping that will add another to that list but I sure wont be planning on sideway trading guns for rd16.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Just having a quick look at Carrigans games when backing up from Origin last year

Round 14: 68 minutes at lock after playing 64 minutes in Origin 1 from the bench.
Round 16: 44 minutes at lock after playing 63 minutes in Origin 2 from the bench. 
Round 19: 65 minutes at lock after playing 67 minutes in Origin 2 at lock.

Round 14 he had an HIA that looks to have dropped his minutes in that game.

Had scores of 64, 29 and 47. If he’s still a machine then he definitely looks playable this week if you still have him

Pretty sure the round 14 game saw Haas go off early injured.

my tv broke wrote:So do we have any post round 13 theories/thoughts on how important bye planning is through-out the first 12 rounds or so, versus simply trading in the best players at the time, and/or holding a few trades in the bank and max trading for the bye round itself?

Personally, I kept rnd 13 in mind for the last few weeks when making trades, but beyond that I haven't done any planning. As a result I only 11 players, which got me 645 or so, and held ground in overall rank.

I suspect my round 16 numbers are pretty bad but don't want to look at that yet.

I think there was a core of players that were borderline keepers that played the first bye if you wanted them
You could get them anytime up to it and not lose too much points wise
Some even had finished their first byes and were at a time when your early cows could be swapped

The issue is some like to grab the origin gun scoring 70+ which means they probably forced a 350k shitto to get them
Then you have Hynes firing along with other temptations and fires so it's easy to get distracted rounds 6-12

Beyond that it was simply a case of rounding out the remaining spots depending on your team composition
This was probably at wfb but if you were carrying a few origin players here I imagine some wouldn't have downgraded or wanted 6+ wfbs

Throw in some bad luck like miller and thats probably the difference between 8-9 and 12-13 players
In hindsight given most get the same players its probably 100-200pts

Jumping Marlin wrote:

Pretty sure the round 14 game saw Haas go off early injured.  

Damn it Marlin. Haha thanks for that

My biggest problem for 16 is all the players I want, IPap, Dedwards in particular I already have full cover for 16 in Hosking/Luki and Garrick/Bula/Drinky. I have 15 trades left though so can probably just get em anyway and drop whoever starts underperforming or have a luxury loop. Also the R16 MIDs suck.

Edited, made a mistake on the numbers but looking at 10 players for round 16 before trades
Round 17 and 20 won't be easy either

the_great_wobbler wrote:My biggest problem for 16 is all the players I want, IPap, Dedwards in particular I already have full cover for 16 in Hosking/Luki and Garrick/Bula/Drinky. I have 15 trades left though so can probably just get em anyway and drop whoever starts underperforming or have a luxury loop. Also the R16 MIDs suck.

Hopgood and Matto and hope they both banner?

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
Hopgood and Matto and hope they both banner?

Yeah good shouts. I have Hopgood and NAS at the moment, was eying up jfh but Matteo might be better option

the_great_wobbler wrote:

Yeah good shouts. I have Hopgood and NAS at the moment, was eying up jfh but Matteo might be better option

Yeah JFH a target over the next couple of weeks for me. NAS is a tough one but probably can’t go to badly with any combo of the above

My rd16 team will probably look like this:

Simpkin (Burbo to Simpkin before rd16)
Hopgood, Harrison, Granville
Cartwright, Hosking
Ponga, Hynes/Moses
Manu, ???
Drinkwater, Bula, Kiraz

If Hynes plays origin rd16 I'll trade him out to Moses, and get Hynes back in for rd20
Not sure if I can be bothered getting the extra rd16 CTR, Gagai & Penis the only ones I'd consider

Was there a reason JFH only played 37mins rd12?

my tv broke wrote:So do we have any post round 13 theories/thoughts on how important bye planning is through-out the first 12 rounds or so, versus simply trading in the best players at the time, and/or holding a few trades in the bank and max trading for the bye round itself?

Personally, I kept rnd 13 in mind for the last few weeks when making trades, but beyond that I haven't done any planning. As a result I only 11 players, which got me 645 or so, and held ground in overall rank.

I suspect my round 16 numbers are pretty bad but don't want to look at that yet.

From what we have learnt so far this year my approach will be different next year

- Try to avoid guys that have early byes in the first 5-6 rounds. These stalled cash gen and also total points
- Trade in the best players regardless of byes until about round 10.
- Max trade in 12 and 13 to bring in 7 bye players. Assuming should have 3 or so out of 21 organically this gets to a healthy 10. If you are in with a chance at overall you can grab 3 more in round 11
- It feels harder to make up ground in the "big byes" with only 13 players on the field so I think making sure you have a good 17 in the other rounds is equally important

Is anyone still holding on to Alamoti? I've been planning to trade him for about the last month but always had a more pressing priority. Now that he's stuck around this long, is it worth keeping him for R16 + 19?

mrbrownstone wrote:Is anyone still holding on to Alamoti? I've been planning to trade him for about the last month but always had a more pressing priority. Now that he's stuck around this long, is it worth keeping him for R16 + 19?

I'm still holding purely because I don't want to trade in a more expensive centre yet. Plan was to go with VTW if he locked down the starting spot but that does not seem likely. At this point I'm planning to hold until I grab a keeper

mrbrownstone wrote:Is anyone still holding on to Alamoti? I've been planning to trade him for about the last month but always had a more pressing priority. Now that he's stuck around this long, is it worth keeping him for R16 + 19?

I'll probably keep him for round 16 at least.

mrbrownstone wrote:Is anyone still holding on to Alamoti? I've been planning to trade him for about the last month but always had a more pressing priority. Now that he's stuck around this long, is it worth keeping him for R16 + 19?

If you dont trade him this week then you may as well hold to 16, id only trade if you can significantly upgrade your scoring side this week.

At his price he probably won't lose cash, small chance he gets a big score and bumps up a little over the next few weeks.

I nearly held him last week but he was my 4th trade when i realised i could grab Carty (and i already have bird lemu and manu), obviously depends on how carty goes but hopefully he can keep putting up 45+ for the next few weeks