NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 55 - Big red and the KP comeback

GreenSchist wrote:As a starting Hooker in at least 50 mins, Liddle averages a very respectable 49.6 points across his career. Seems to have the respect and backing of the new coach.
Has a bye in Round 20 which is a tad annoying but could easily make $150k in the 5 games before that if he meets his career average, then potentially jump across to Grant post Origin to avoid the bye.

Seeing as I'm already bringing in Turpin to cover 16, is it crazy to jump from JMK to Liddle in an attempt to bank some cash? Screams luxury sideways trade and it's not as if I have a treasure trove of trades remaining.

I really haven't thought about my trades/plans yet this week but I have JMK and I might have to have a good think about getting Liddle instead of Turpin and playing no hooker in rd16. For the sake of 30-35 points in rd16 need to figure out what is going to be more beneficial overall. 

I almost got Liddle in rd12 once he was named to start on the basis he could make $175k and be playable in the 17.

BCT05 wrote:

I really haven't thought about my trades/plans yet this week but I have JMK and I might have to have a good think about getting Liddle instead of Turpin and playing no hooker in rd16. For the sake of 30-35 points in rd16 need to figure out what is going to be more beneficial overall. 

I almost got Liddle in rd12 once he was named to start on the basis he could make $175k and be playable in the 17.

Although, just realised rd20 Dragons and Raiders both have the bye. 

A lot of us will have JDB, Bird and Horse/Tapine already so Liddle would be 4 not playing plus origin backup risk. That doesn't look good for a Liddle trade in at all (Unless maybe Bird ends up needing ditching).

Host down $6000 excellent……

BCT05 wrote:

I really haven't thought about my trades/plans yet this week but I have JMK and I might have to have a good think about getting Liddle instead of Turpin and playing no hooker in rd16. For the sake of 30-35 points in rd16 need to figure out what is going to be more beneficial overall. 

I almost got Liddle in rd12 once he was named to start on the basis he could make $175k and be playable in the 17.

Yea, for Turpin there's a big difference between his scoring output in moderate minutes (between 50-65) and in games where he plays >65 minutes.
If we think Turpin plays out the full 80 mins, he's probably worth a shout. If you think he's likely to spend time on the bench, it would definitely be worthwhile looking at Liddle as an alternative option, even if it means going without a Hooker for 16.

Turpin - In a starting role
50-65 minutes = 35.7 points
>60 minutes = 54 points

Honey Badger wrote:

If it wasn't for the byes, grabbing Liddle over Turpin is much more appealing. Liddle has attacking upside, Turpin has none

Yea I'd love to know what minute role Turpin is looking at. Hopefully TLT and the named bench provide some insight.

GreenSchist wrote:

Yea, for Turpin there's a big difference between his scoring output in moderate minutes (between 50-65) and in games where he plays >65 minutes.
If we think Turpin plays out the full 80 mins, he's probably worth a shout. If you think he's likely to spend time on the bench, it would definitely be worthwhile looking at Liddle as an alternative option, even if it means going without a Hooker for 16.

Turpin - In a starting role
50-65 minutes = 35.7 points
>60 minutes = 54 points

Would think Hutchinson will be on the bench to give him ~20min rest.

I expect a 50:30 split for whoever starts at hooker for the Roosters. Turpin seems favoured so far this season so my money is on him starting

If there happens to be an injury in the backline before the sub we probably see Turpin go the full 80

So do we have any post round 13 theories/thoughts on how important bye planning is through-out the first 12 rounds or so, versus simply trading in the best players at the time, and/or holding a few trades in the bank and max trading for the bye round itself?

Personally, I kept rnd 13 in mind for the last few weeks when making trades, but beyond that I haven't done any planning. As a result I only 11 players, which got me 645 or so, and held ground in overall rank.

I suspect my round 16 numbers are pretty bad but don't want to look at that yet.

It's the Tuesday before origin. TLT will be a joke, and people are carrying on like there are decisions to be made before Thursday. It's shit posting day in preperation for shit slinging day tomorrow and those filthy cheating cane toads.

NSFW:

my tv broke wrote:So do we have any post round 13 theories/thoughts on how important bye planning is through-out the first 12 rounds or so, versus simply trading in the best players at the time, and/or holding a few trades in the bank and max trading for the bye round itself?

Personally, I kept rnd 13 in mind for the last few weeks when making trades, but beyond that I haven't done any planning. As a result I only 11 players, which got me 645 or so, and held ground in overall rank.

I suspect my round 16 numbers are pretty bad but don't want to look at that yet.

I would say the best options for R13 were previously good options in the rounds prior (JDB, Horse, SJ, Moses etc)

R16 looks much dicier and whether you think the bye points are worth the scores in other rounds

Honey Badger wrote:

If it wasn't for the byes, grabbing Liddle over Turpin is much more appealing. Liddle has attacking upside, Turpin has none

Turpin for a double.

I’m seriously considering both haha. Can’t ignore that sort of scoring for so cheap can we? Obviously Turpin will need trading out at some stage but Liddle could remain all year?

BCT05 wrote:

Although, just realised rd20 Dragons and Raiders both have the bye. 

A lot of us will have JDB, Bird and Horse/Tapine already so Liddle would be 4 not playing plus origin backup risk. That doesn't look good for a Liddle trade in at all (Unless maybe Bird ends up needing ditching).

Or finds a new club? Tigers, Sharks?

what's the deal with Okanbur? Is he actually in favour or is he just filling gaps?

my tv broke wrote:So do we have any post round 13 theories/thoughts on how important bye planning is through-out the first 12 rounds or so, versus simply trading in the best players at the time, and/or holding a few trades in the bank and max trading for the bye round itself?

Personally, I kept rnd 13 in mind for the last few weeks when making trades, but beyond that I haven't done any planning. As a result I only 11 players, which got me 645 or so, and held ground in overall rank.

I suspect my round 16 numbers are pretty bad but don't want to look at that yet.

I tried the same approach as you with mixed success. The things which fucked it up were Young getting SOO, not holding CNK when he got injured and banking on Ben Turbo remaining in the team for a few weeks (plus being a holdout on JDB).

The actual trades I made last round were fine but I was in too much trouble after round 12 so played with 10 and lost ground but I think saving trades and late purchases is still the way to go.

Still have a reasonable number of trades left (14) and I'm happy with most of the people in my team, even Crossland who should get DPP and negate the need to buy another hooker I don't love.

I think I'll have a look after this round and see how many trades I'm willing to spend and on who.

my tv broke wrote:So do we have any post round 13 theories/thoughts on how important bye planning is through-out the first 12 rounds or so, versus simply trading in the best players at the time, and/or holding a few trades in the bank and max trading for the bye round itself?

Personally, I kept rnd 13 in mind for the last few weeks when making trades, but beyond that I haven't done any planning. As a result I only 11 players, which got me 645 or so, and held ground in overall rank.

I suspect my round 16 numbers are pretty bad but don't want to look at that yet.

I just looked this morning.

I got 13 (actually 14) out for R13 but have 7 for R16. Including Granville and Koula. So it's fair to say more bye planning would've been handy for me.

Cheese getting injured plus going Cook over Robson look very problematic for my team, as filling HOK and MID looking very questionable.

Unless something emerges, I might just go 11-12. Think I can easily get 13 for R19, then will have to flip a bunch of bye players to get a full team out R20.

Just having a quick look at Carrigans games when backing up from Origin last year

Round 14: 68 minutes at lock after playing 64 minutes in Origin 1 from the bench.
Round 16: 44 minutes at lock after playing 63 minutes in Origin 2 from the bench. 
Round 19: 65 minutes at lock after playing 67 minutes in Origin 2 at lock.

Round 14 he had an HIA that looks to have dropped his minutes in that game.

Had scores of 64, 29 and 47. If he’s still a machine then he definitely looks playable this week if you still have him

I'm hoping 10-11 players for 16 might be enough to hold ranks.......hopefully.

I did no real bye planning but managed to scrape a decent score and sneak a few ranks upwards. Going Cook over Robson definitely not smart in hindsight and going SJ over Moses/Brown are the two things I'm kicking myself over. If scores were reversed for these players though I'd look like a genius. Just need SJ to make up for last week to counteract Moses/Brown not playing this week.

Also with a game against the Sharks they may want there big players on the park for as long as possible

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Also with a game against the Sharks they may want there big players on the park for as long as possible

I don't think the Broncos rest anyone this week, unless there are legitimate injuries.

Sure if the game blows out (either way) but that seems unlikely.

Carrigan and Haas are machines and hate being subbed.

They will probably look to manage some of these guys around 19/20/21 etc but it depends a lot on wins/losses over the next month.

my tv broke wrote:

I don't think the Broncos rest anyone this week, unless there are legitimate injuries.

Sure if the game blows out (either way) but that seems unlikely.

Carrigan and Haas are machines and hate being subbed.

They will probably look to manage some of these guys around 19/20/21 etc

Cheers mate. That’s the sort of confirmation I was after haha