NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 75 - Captaincy fails

Khany wrote:Thoughts on Campbell if he retains the FB position (which I suspect he might) ?.  Titans have a Storm/Panthers soon.

Where are you expecting Brimson to go?

Possibly right centre

Jeez this Tapine v AFB decision is annoying the shit outta me haha. Concentrating on my cash league now and while my playoff game isn't a knockout, it is still one I would really like to win.

Khany wrote:Even with the rd 26 bye, anyone traded Mitchell in ?

Not a bad run home

I am very tempted to Drinkwater to Latrell and bet on a banner in the next week or two

Does mean murray and latrell both on the bye at the same time :/

my tv broke wrote:

I am very tempted to Drinkwater to Latrell and bet on a banner in the next week or two

Does mean murray and latrell both on the bye at the same time :/

Yeah, I think if I pick him up that’s me done for ‘fun’ trades…..the last 3~4 will go on forced trades and hopefully some sideways action when players are on byes

Weiland wrote:Jeez this Tapine v AFB decision is annoying the shit outta me haha. Concentrating on my cash league now and while my playoff game isn't a knockout, it is still one I would really like to win.

Idk, here's some stats about them anyway

Tapine

2022:
- Ave min 50.7, ave score 55.3
- 2 tries
- Average: 28.9 tackles, 3 busts, 1.5 MT, 1.5 OL, 190 metres

2023:
- Ave min 54.6, ave score 54.9
- 1 try
- Average: 33.7 tackles, 2.3 busts, 1.9 MT, 1.1 OL, 161 metres

Thoughts: Doesn't need tries to go big. Base is mostly similar to last year and he's actually getting MORE minutes. His increase in tackles offsets the loss in metres. Last year was obviously a great year for him with busts etc but still mostly matched this year

AFB

2022:
- Ave min 54.5, ave score 43.6
- 1 try
- Average: 24.9 tackles, 1.8 busts, 0.9 MT, 0.5 OL, 152.8 metres

2023:
- Ave min 58.3, ave score 57.2
- 6 tries
- Average: 28.9 tackles, 2.8 busts, 1.2 MT, 1.3 OL, 169.4 metres

Thoughts: He's having a career year with all stats pretty much up from last year. An average jump of 13.6 is huge. If you take only 'base' stats into account then in 2023 both Tapine and AFB have around 50 base (give or take) so it's the attacking stats that have given AFB a boost (so far). You'd be banking on him getting more attacking stats than Tapine for the remainder of the season, and vice-versa

Run home

Tapine: Tigers, Storm, Bulldogs, Broncos, Sharks (three top-8 sides)
AFB: Titans, Tigers, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Dolphins (zero top-8 sides)

We've learnt from years of fantasy that match-ups don't really mean much, but this is an additional narrative that might sway your decision

If Tapine vs more top 8 teams, does he get less attacking stats? Does he get more minutes because they need him on the field = more base?

If AFB vs lower teams, does he get more attacking stats? Does he get less minutes and/or less base because they're winning comfortably?

TL:DR

Both have solid base and both are playing in teams challenging for the top 4 so, logically, they should be getting minutes considering they're alpha props in their team

Just pick the one who you think will have the better end of the year - there's not much splitting them - and they'll honestly probably average within 1-3 points of each other anyway

Shady2K wrote:

Idk, here's some stats about them anyway

Tapine

2022:
- Ave min 50.7, ave score 55.3
- 2 tries
- Average: 28.9 tackles, 3 busts, 1.5 MT, 1.5 OL, 190 metres

2023:
- Ave min 54.6, ave score 54.9
- 1 try
- Average: 33.7 tackles, 2.3 busts, 1.9 MT, 1.1 OL, 161 metres

Thoughts: Doesn't need tries to go big. Base is mostly similar to last year and he's actually getting MORE minutes. His increase in tackles offsets the loss in metres. Last year was obviously a great year for him with busts etc but still mostly matched this year

AFB

2022:
- Ave min 54.5, ave score 43.6
- 1 try
- Average: 24.9 tackles, 1.8 busts, 0.9 MT, 0.5 OL, 152.8 metres

2023:
- Ave min 58.3, ave score 57.2
- 6 tries
- Average: 28.9 tackles, 2.8 busts, 1.2 MT, 1.3 OL, 169.4 metres

Thoughts: He's having a career year with all stats pretty much up from last year. An average jump of 13.6 is huge. If you take only 'base' stats into account then in 2023 both Tapine and AFB have around 50 base (give or take) so it's the attacking stats that have given AFB a boost (so far). You'd be banking on him getting more attacking stats than Tapine for the remainder of the season, and vice-versa

Run home

Tapine: Tigers, Storm, Bulldogs, Broncos, Sharks (three top-8 sides)
AFB: Titans, Tigers, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Dolphins (zero top-8 sides)

We've learnt from years of fantasy that match-ups don't really mean much, but this is an additional narrative that might sway your decision

If Tapine vs more top 8 teams, does he get less attacking stats? Does he get more minutes because they need him on the field = more base?

If AFB vs lower teams, does he get more attacking stats? Does he get less minutes and/or less base because they're winning comfortably?

TL:DR

Both have solid base and both are playing in teams challenging for the top 4 so, logically, they should be getting minutes considering they're alpha props in their team

Just pick the one who you think will have the better end of the year - there's not much splitting them - and they'll honestly probably average within 1-3 points of each other anyway

Outstanding post.

Tapine seems like the "safer" pick and tbh that is what I am leaning towards.

Also, even though during Wahs games I don't think too much about Fantasy scores etc, it will be nice to watch them without stressing about AFB, even though everytime he scores a try I will think about the mistake I made if I don't get him in.

Biggest con for tapine is Ricky, he might forget to sun him back on like he did for horse last week

AFB is the fun pick

Great post shady

Weiland wrote:

Outstanding post.

Tapine seems like the "safer" pick and tbh that is what I am leaning towards.

Also, even though during Wahs games I don't think too much about Fantasy scores etc, it will be nice to watch them without stressing about AFB, even though everytime he scores a try I will think about the mistake I made if I don't get him in.

The pointer here is Tevaga

He's 18th man this week but let's just say he makes his way into the 17 at some point. This year:

AFB with Tevaga: 51.3 min, ave 53.3
AFB without Tevaga: 61.5 min, ave 59

Considerable difference

Shady2K wrote:

The pointer here is Tevaga

He's 18th man this week but let's just say he makes his way into the 17 at some point. This year:

AFB with Tevaga: 51.3 min, ave 53.3
AFB without Tevaga: 61.5 min, ave 59

Considerable difference

That might seal it. I said to a guy here yesterday that I didn't think Jazz would make a difference to AFBs minutes but those stats say differently.

Milchcow wrote:

RandomSil wrote:Are Horsburgh owners straight swapping to Yeo this week if they don't have him

Why on earth would anyone want to do that?

Cause of the bad score and me being trigger happy

Seems the Croker hammy injury is legit and not dropped

Pretty tempted to do JDB > Gagai for my final trade. But feel maybe holding the trade is best. All it takes is a sub par score from a gun or thereabouts to pounce (and it'll be with 824k).

RandomSil wrote:

Cause of the bad score and me being trigger happy

Horse is every chance to go back to a big minute role. In fact, with the outcome, I almost expect him to be straight back to the role.

If you had to pick would you go Cheese or Api?

Rabbits21 wrote:If you had to pick would you go Cheese or Api?

If I absolutely had to pick one, Api. But I'd rather not pick either of them.

mickspicks wrote:

If I absolutely had to pick one, Api. But I'd rather not pick either of them.

Even with Simpkin on the bench? Doesn’t concern you on Api scoring?

Rabbits21 wrote:
Even with Simpkin on the bench? Doesn’t concern you on Api scoring?

I forgot about Simpkin. I don't know man. Smith doesn't really fill me with a lot of hope either.

Rabbits21 wrote:If you had to pick would you go Cheese or Api?

I went Hands to Smith last week but seriously considered Api. I think I went with Smith hoping the Roosters would go on a bit of a run. Api's missed tackles also put me off a bit.

mickspicks wrote:Pretty tempted to do JDB > Gagai for my final trade. But feel maybe holding the trade is best. All it takes is a sub par score from a gun or thereabouts to pounce (and it'll be with 824k).

I'm also holding JDB for now, but only have two trades left

Figured I'll quite likely trade him on the week Broncos have the bye, so I'm not missing JDB & Haas

Or potentially just keep him as he will be back for round 27