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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 75 - Captaincy fails

    Pookus McFly
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    Post by Pookus McFly Thu Aug 03, 2023 12:37 pm

    Joining GarethEllis(IMD) in the 0 trades gang this week. Surely going 5 weeks with only Bula and Burbo as backup should be a cinch, right? Right?

    What a shit fantasy season. Final team to make a push from ~1300s:

    Grant
    Haas Yeo Horse
    Fifita Bateman
    Cleary Hynes
    Manu Lemi
    Ponga Teddy Kiraz
    SJ Moses Hopgood Murray
    Bula Burbo Graham Skelton

    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Aug 03, 2023 12:56 pm

    mrbrownstone wrote:While we're checking loops....

    Lem Penis
    Ponga Teddy Munro

    SJ DCE iPap Graham

    MoFo Robson DEdwards Kris

    -If DEdwards scores ok, leave as is. If not, swap Kris and Munro.
    - Loop MoFo & Robson at 18th man as normal.

    Right?
    I wouldn’t loop Munro mate he was at training yesterday in a red shirt and red generally means playing.
    RandomSil
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    Post by RandomSil Thu Aug 03, 2023 12:57 pm

    With 4 trades I can either downgrade Paikura and swap JDB to Yeo or Haas, or I could just get Carrigan and hope he plays the season out
    Aardvark
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    Post by Aardvark Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:04 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    I wouldn’t loop Munro mate he was at training yesterday in a red shirt and red generally means playing.

    As someone who may be planning on upgrading a Tigers fullback playing tonight to a Rabbits fullback, recently returned from a calf injury, playing Saturday who wasn't wearing a red shirt?
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    thomglomerate

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    Post by thomglomerate Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:05 pm

    Talk me down from the ledge here. 3 trades remaining.

    Jdb to Afb

    Jdb, hands to yeo+mitch kenny.

    Jdb, hands and Bula to yeo, burbo and latrell.

    I will only have Matterson to cover edge and mid in all scenarios, so three has the most risk.

    Bula will play during the cowboys bye round but would otherwise be an emergency.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:27 pm

    thomglomerate wrote:Talk me down from the ledge here. 3 trades remaining.

    Jdb to Afb

    Jdb, hands to yeo+mitch kenny.

    Jdb, hands and Bula to yeo, burbo and latrell.

    I will only have Matterson to cover edge and mid in all scenarios, so three has the most risk.

    Bula will play during the cowboys bye round but would otherwise be an emergency.

    I wouldn't be spending your last trade this week unless you needed to to field a team.
    Bula is a green dot who'll play every week and has a real possibility of putting up a a good score. Latrell still has a bye to come, so no guarantee its even a points upgrade making that switch
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:28 pm

    Milchcow wrote:
    This week I am ditching JDB + Hands , and also needing MID + HOK cover

    Is Yeo + Mitch Kenny
    better than say McInnes + Cheese/Koro

    The 2nd player would be 19th man (unless Grant goes down, as they'd be my only hooker cover) so not essential that they are a 50 point gun. But with only 1 trade left, having playable options better than not having options, so have to think about potential injury cover


    I like the second option with cheese

    Both have no byes left, not likely to be rested and good upside
    Mcinnes I am warming on over Murray purely because of that rd26 bye
    If you lose a couple and have to cover that bye too then it could be fun

    I don’t expect Mcinnes to score huge but 55-60pts from base I can live with and hope he can jag a try
    Worst case you can have fun counting tackles

    Cheese:
    The roosters need to win and score points
    They need him out there big mins and to play well if they have any chance
    If you can loop in his good scores even better and his mid DPP could be very handy
    Not without risk but the upside is there

    I have also started noticing a heap of posts/podcasts choosing players based on ‘fun’, I like it
    Love this trend, keep it up
    The Bludger#2
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    Post by The Bludger#2 Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:28 pm

    Shady2K wrote:

    Idk, here's some stats about them anyway

    Tapine

    2022:
    - Ave min 50.7, ave score 55.3
    - 2 tries
    - Average: 28.9 tackles, 3 busts, 1.5 MT, 1.5 OL, 190 metres

    2023:
    - Ave min 54.6, ave score 54.9
    - 1 try
    - Average: 33.7 tackles, 2.3 busts, 1.9 MT, 1.1 OL, 161 metres

    Thoughts: Doesn't need tries to go big. Base is mostly similar to last year and he's actually getting MORE minutes. His increase in tackles offsets the loss in metres. Last year was obviously a great year for him with busts etc but still mostly matched this year

    AFB

    2022:
    - Ave min 54.5, ave score 43.6
    - 1 try
    - Average: 24.9 tackles, 1.8 busts, 0.9 MT, 0.5 OL, 152.8 metres

    2023:
    - Ave min 58.3, ave score 57.2
    - 6 tries
    - Average: 28.9 tackles, 2.8 busts, 1.2 MT, 1.3 OL, 169.4 metres

    Thoughts: He's having a career year with all stats pretty much up from last year. An average jump of 13.6 is huge. If you take only 'base' stats into account then in 2023 both Tapine and AFB have around 50 base (give or take) so it's the attacking stats that have given AFB a boost (so far). You'd be banking on him getting more attacking stats than Tapine for the remainder of the season, and vice-versa

    Run home

    Tapine: Tigers, Storm, Bulldogs, Broncos, Sharks (three top-8 sides)
    AFB: Titans, Tigers, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Dolphins (zero top-8 sides)

    We've learnt from years of fantasy that match-ups don't really mean much, but this is an additional narrative that might sway your decision

    If Tapine vs more top 8 teams, does he get less attacking stats? Does he get more minutes because they need him on the field = more base?

    If AFB vs lower teams, does he get more attacking stats? Does he get less minutes and/or less base because they're winning comfortably?

    TL:DR

    Both have solid base and both are playing in teams challenging for the top 4 so, logically, they should be getting minutes considering they're alpha props in their team

    Just pick the one who you think will have the better end of the year - there's not much splitting them - and they'll honestly probably average within 1-3 points of each other anyway

    Awesome analysis Shady2K, much appreciated.
    I'm going AFB just because I have a soft spot for the Wahs and feel like he'll be more "fun" to watch.
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    sbr202

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    Post by sbr202 Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:35 pm

    Anyone have a strong opinion on AFB vs Munster? Dont care about positions, just after the most points for h2h finals. Thinking Munster due these stats around Tevaga
    BCT05
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    Post by BCT05 Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:40 pm

    sbr202 wrote:Anyone have a strong opinion on AFB vs Munster? Dont care about positions, just after the most points for h2h finals. Thinking Munster due these stats around Tevaga

    Munster
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:41 pm

    robelgordo wrote:Simo Vs the Dragons hard to resist…

    I'm gonna have to trade in and captain Campbell Graham for the meet up just for the banter
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:42 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    I'm gonna have to trade in and captain Campbell Graham for the meet up just for the banter

    I'm going to C Joey Manu
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:42 pm

    sbr202 wrote:Anyone have a strong opinion on AFB vs Munster? Dont care about positions, just after the most points for h2h finals. Thinking Munster due these stats around Tevaga

    Munster.
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    Post by thomglomerate Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:44 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    I wouldn't be spending your last trade this week unless you needed to to field a team.
    Bula is a green dot who'll play every week and has a real possibility  of putting up a a good score. Latrell still has a bye to come, so no guarantee its even a points upgrade making that switch

    Thanks Milch, makes sense.
    The Bludger#2
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    Post by The Bludger#2 Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:47 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    Having a real purple patch for try scoring as well

    For mine, that was the moment of the season so far.
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    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:48 pm

    If you can field a 17 this week is it fine to hold JDB for a week?
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    Post by BCT05 Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:53 pm

    Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:If you can field a 17 this week is it fine to hold JDB for a week?

    For most people I don't see why you would. 4 weeks out is a trade, what will change in 1 week other than potentially missing out on another gun's score instead?

    Exception is if you can do some sweet looping to look at a score (or scores) in your team first and if you have a good score to take then holding JDB is obviously fine.
    The Bludger#2
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    Post by The Bludger#2 Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:56 pm

    Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Screw your loops 😜

    Yep.
    Looping ... that requires having more than 17 playable bodies (which I don't have).
    I'm sweating on Lemu playing just to field 17 this week.

    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:58 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    I wouldn’t loop Munro mate he was at training yesterday in a red shirt and red generally means playing.

    Thanks mate appreciate the heads up.
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu Aug 03, 2023 2:04 pm

    Right, since it sounds like Munro's playing and I can't loop them, would you play DEdwards vs the Storm or Kris vs the Tigers?

    It should be DEdwards in theory, but his scoring history against the Storm is less than reassuring:

    29
    38
    43
    33
    40
    23
    12

    I don't usually like to read too much into match-ups, but I think fullbacks against the Storm is one of the few exceptions.

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