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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 78 - Everyone is totally, absolutely, 100% alive

    Shady2K
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    Post by Shady2K Mon Aug 14, 2023 12:25 pm

    Rough times when I’m considering playing Loiero over Manu lol

    Prob still Manu due to ceiling tho
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    Post by my tv broke Mon Aug 14, 2023 12:25 pm

    Chewie wrote:

    You're not looking to shabby for the monthly, 14 points behind 1st place atm
    Just keep an eye out for Cuban, he's only 1 point behind you

    Assume the August monthly includes rnd 27 ? Even though most of that round is actually september

    P much anything could happen in that time
    ForanAgainst
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    Post by ForanAgainst Mon Aug 14, 2023 12:39 pm

    mrbrownstone wrote:Well, of course it comes down to having to use one of my final trades on a shitto centre. With Lem out this week, Kris going down last week, and Penis on a bye in R27, this is my current centre lineup:

    R25: Penis + ?
    R26: Penis + Lem
    R27: Lem + ?

    With 3 trades left, that means I can either use two of them on centres (Lem to someone this week, Penis to someone in R27) or trade Munro to a centre to play R25 and 27. I refuse to use two of my last three trades on centres on principle, so it's Munro to 392k or less.



    No particularly appealing options. It's probably between Tupou for the ceiling or Pompey for a safer floor and hoping he scores a couple of tries with a good draw.

    Can almost guarantee one of them will score 85 this week and one will score -2, so if you could all get your crystal balls out and let me know who's who, that'd be great.

    My balls, crystal or otherwise, won’t tell who’s who, that’s why I like to go to the players profile so I can put a face with a name.

    However, if it’s my team, I go Tupou….just.
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Mon Aug 14, 2023 12:40 pm

    Bethany_B wrote:thoughts on the best CTR or WFB I can get?

    I have a single trade left and up to 537k (selling Kris, hoping Lem doesn't miss more than this week) and need either a CTR or WFB.

    First thought is Tracey playing FB for the Sharks but I can't say I rate him that much.

    I would love to buy Seve running off Hughes and Ekat but I would have to sell Lem to do that and that could leave me short in the last round if Edwards gets a rest and Kris doesn't come back.
    I’m going to take the punt on Seve if Simo doesn’t come up with the goods on Friday night.

    Wish me luck
    Chucky
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    Post by Chucky Mon Aug 14, 2023 12:58 pm

    Can anyone think of a reason why Preston is listed without a penalty against his name?
    He’s got the sin bin debit, but I thought there should also be a penalty.
    I wouldn’t ordinarily be bothered but it cost me my L4 h2h which I lost by a point to Honey Badger.
    Welsh Mafia
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    Post by Welsh Mafia Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:08 pm

    Holzman wrote:so into the Prelim with 4 trades with my opponent having 2 trades.

    Haas v Haas (assume he trades him out as im planning to also)
    Yeo v Hopgood
    Gagai v Lemu (assume he trades out Lemmy)
    Tedesco v Kiraz
    Munster v SJ
    Horse v Matto
    DCE v Garrick

    im on the left so think i have a slight edge.

    Haas and Kris give me $1.3m for 2 players, position doesnt really matter but ideally I loop Edwards and one of them if i can.

    1. bring in Mofo and then bring in a sub 710k C/WFB to loop Edwards in Marzhew/Garrick.
    2. bring in a top guy in SJ, AFB, Tino and then just a spec WFB/C

    SJ - 422k (To'A, Coates, Russel)
    AFB - 586k  (Graham/Kiraz/Meaney)
    Tino - 502k (Suaali)

    I can wait a little bit to pull the trigger but if I want SJ or AFB then it needs to be Friday night. Luckily Kris is the last game and Haas on the bye so i dont need to trade untill the last game but obviously my trade in options dwindle the later I wait.

    You've got a huge leg up mate. DCE, Horse, Teddy, Yeo and arguably Gagai > whoever he gets.

    I like the idea to get SJ, altho the quad tightness with someone so injury prone may be a red flag.

    Tino and AFB are both beasts, however AFB + Kiraz may be a good call to cover your opponent
    WT Winfield
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    Post by WT Winfield Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:17 pm

    Chucky wrote:Can anyone think of a reason why Preston is listed without a penalty against his name?
    He’s got the sin bin debit, but I thought there should also be a penalty.
    I wouldn’t ordinarily be bothered but it cost me my L4 h2h which I lost by a point to Honey Badger.

    Fuck that's rough.. Only thing I can think of is Dogs might've been penalised for inside the 10m and then the hipdrop happened.

    There's a short clip on nrl.com where you hear the whistle, Johns says "they jumped the gun" and then Preston's hipdrop tackle occurs. Could be spliced together weird though.

    On closer inspection, the whistle is blown while Preston's completing the tackle, and was the other commentator saying they jumped the gun. Not sure.. would've thought it'd be 6 again rather than a penalty for inside the 10m.

    The stats guys have overlooked the PC before and then added in updates.. might've missed it this time and being last game doesn't help.


    Last edited by WT Winfield on Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:21 pm

    my tv broke wrote:

    Assume the August monthly includes rnd 27 ? Even though most of that round is actually september

    P much anything could happen in that time

    yeah, i would assume it includes rd27, and yes that round could be chaotic
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:22 pm

    Chucky wrote:Can anyone think of a reason why Preston is listed without a penalty against his name?
    He’s got the sin bin debit, but I thought there should also be a penalty.
    I wouldn’t ordinarily be bothered but it cost me my L4 h2h which I lost by a point to Honey Badger.

    ouch Shocked

    Evil or Very Mad
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:23 pm

    Holzman wrote:so into the Prelim with 4 trades with my opponent having 2 trades.

    Haas v Haas (assume he trades him out as im planning to also)
    Yeo v Hopgood
    Gagai v Lemu (assume he trades out Lemmy)
    Tedesco v Kiraz
    Munster v SJ
    Horse v Matto
    DCE v Garrick

    im on the left so think i have a slight edge.

    Haas and Kris give me $1.3m for 2 players, position doesnt really matter but ideally I loop Edwards and one of them if i can.

    1. bring in Mofo and then bring in a sub 710k C/WFB to loop Edwards in Marzhew/Garrick.
    2. bring in a top guy in SJ, AFB, Tino and then just a spec WFB/C

    SJ - 422k (To'A, Coates, Russel)
    AFB - 586k  (Graham/Kiraz/Meaney)
    Tino - 502k (Suaali)

    I can wait a little bit to pull the trigger but if I want SJ or AFB then it needs to be Friday night. Luckily Kris is the last game and Haas on the bye so i dont need to trade untill the last game but obviously my trade in options dwindle the later I wait.

    I think you're the favourite, so can play it fairly straight down the line.

    SJ is the one player he owns who I'd be scared not to, so SJ + a punt on Coates against the Dragons gets my vote. Good matchup against the Titans next week too if you get through to the final. To'a also tempting against the Dolphins, pretty good loop option for a guy whose ceiling is a banner.
    Holzman
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    Post by Holzman Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:29 pm

    Welsh Mafia wrote:

    You've got a huge leg up mate. DCE, Horse, Teddy, Yeo and arguably Gagai > whoever he gets.

    I like the idea to get SJ, altho the quad tightness with someone so injury prone may be a red flag.

    Tino and AFB are both beasts, however AFB + Kiraz may be a good call to cover your opponent

    Thanks AFB might be the go as if I go SJ then I need to lock in the other trade as Id need cash to go up. So If I go AFB I actually pocket some cash in the bank and then I can actually see how Edwards goes (is also his 18th man).

    Really does seem worth it with AFB v Mofo , Mofo is a 51 without the injury and AFB a 58. Really AFB is kind of MOfo but will the ability to get a try.

    Great to see you think I have the edge so could even just hold the second trade and go into the GF (assuming I make it) with 3 trades and 150k in the bank.

    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:31 pm

    Cleary's recent scores against the Titans:

    70
    144
    59
    52
    55

    Apart from the 144, it's honestly not as great as I'd expect. Which I realise is a pretty bloody stupid sentence "apart from the second best score in fantasy history, he's only scored a few 50s and a 70". But such are the high expectations he's set that I half-expected him to have gone 80+ every time.

    Anyone brave enough to not captain him this week? Hynes did score 95 against the Cowboys earlier this season, so not a bad matchup for him either...
    Holzman
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    Post by Holzman Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:34 pm

    mrbrownstone wrote:

    I think you're the favourite, so can play it fairly straight down the line.

    SJ is the one player he owns who I'd be scared not to, so SJ + a punt on Coates against the Dragons gets my vote. Good matchup against the Titans next week too if you get through to the final. To'a also tempting against the Dolphins, pretty good loop option for a guy whose ceiling is a banner.

    Yeah, SJ certainly the guy im worried about. As I said in the other post my main worry with him is it means im forced in to the second trade and I think having that trade up my sleeve is handy if Edwards goes well then I can just play him and my opponent will have him in the 18th looper spot.

    In isolation though the SJ counter is the obvious move.
    SoylentGreen
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    Post by SoylentGreen Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:49 pm

    I've got both Carrigan and Haas, and need to trade one of them this week. Thinking Carrigan, unless there anything that might suggest Haas gets reduced minutes in the last 2 rounds?
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    Post by my tv broke Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:51 pm

    SoylentGreen wrote:I've got both Carrigan and Haas, and need to trade one of them this week. Thinking Carrigan, unless there anything that might suggest Haas gets reduced minutes in the last 2 rounds?

    Bit of a lottery as to what happens, but I'll be trading Carrigan.

    Haas feels a bit more reliable, just constantly accumulates points.

    Don't think resting is a worry, they're all having one this week, although if we manage to blow out the scoreline early against the Raiders then both of those guys get a bit more time on the bench.

    The question is who to. Probably needs to be a MID. So there's Yeo, Tino, or even McInnes... perhaps even AFB

    Yeo- ever reliable, but could get rested last round. would 100% pick him if i knew he was playing round 27.
    Tino- good shout, bit more of a rocks/diamonds guy, but seems to always finish the year strong. wont get rested (prob get suspended lol)
    McInnes- gunning at the moment, always the worry that drops back to 45s in 55s. pretty tempting.
    AFB- is pumping out the minutes lately. dunno, maybe ?

    meh, future me problem
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:22 pm

    Big match for me this week. He has one trade to use on Haas/Walsh but if he chooses not to use it then these are the matchups.




    McInnes, Yeo, BSmith, Latrell, Russell, Graham
    Friz, Nikora, DCE, Isaako, Murray, Simo/Seve




    Which side wins?
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:27 pm

    mrbrownstone wrote:Well, of course it comes down to having to use one of my final trades on a shitto centre. With Lem out this week, Kris going down last week, and Penis on a bye in R27, this is my current centre lineup:

    R25: Penis + ?
    R26: Penis + Lem
    R27: Lem + ?

    With 3 trades left, that means I can either use two of them on centres (Lem to someone this week, Penis to someone in R27) or trade Munro to a centre to play R25 and 27. I refuse to use two of my last three trades on centres on principle, so it's Munro to 392k or less.

    Unless someone pops up tomorrow, the options seem to be:

    Junior Tupou: Plays Dolphins R25 and Manly R27 which isn't awful as draws go. Has the best ceiling of the options with scores of 65 (1 try), 67 (2 tries) and 77 (2 tries) this year. Also has the lowest floor of the options with scores of 4, 6, 13, 14, and 14 in 80 mins this year.

    Milne: Plays Knights and Roosters. Only one score over 50 all year and has been in and out of the side. Probably don't trust him not to randomly be dropped again.

    Suli: Plays Storm and Knights which is a bit yucky. Also only scored above 50 once all year and that required 3 try assists.

    Pompey: Has the same draw as Tupou, just in reverse with Manly R25 and Dolphins R27. Best JS and best floor of the options, with only 2 scores below 20. Scored between 20-40 16 times this year. Only one score over 50 with a 2-try 73 against the Knights in R6.

    Reimis Smith: Plays the Dragons R25 and Broncos R27.Similar to Pompey in that he's scored between 20-40 13 times. Ceiling of 50, floor of 11 this year.

    No particularly appealing options. It's probably between Tupou for the ceiling or Pompey for a safer floor and hoping he scores a couple of tries with a good draw.

    Can almost guarantee one of them will score 85 this week and one will score -2, so if you could all get your crystal balls out and let me know who's who, that'd be great.

    Keep an eye on the Storm's team list and injury mail, if Reimis keeps that right wing spot (realistically he won't unless Warbrick stays injured) then he's easily the best one.
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    Post by mrbrownstone Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:40 pm

    Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Big match for me this week. He has one trade to use on Haas/Walsh but if he chooses not to use it then these are the matchups.




    McInnes, Yeo, BSmith, Latrell, Russell, Graham
    Friz, Nikora, DCE, Isaako, Murray, Simo/Seve




    Which side wins?

    Imo:

    McInness vs Friz - adv McInness
    Yeo vs Nikora - adv Yeo
    BSmith vs DCE - adv DCE
    Latrell vs Isaako - adv Latrell
    Russell vs Murray - adv Murray
    Graham vs Simo/Seve- adv Graham

    So the McInness, Yeo etc team has an advantage in 4/6 matchups, but they all look like fairly close ones where you wouldn't be shocked if they went the other way. Whereas DCE and Murray vs BSmith and Russell could quite easily be a blowout that makes up for the rest. I think I'd lean that way tbh but looks like a close one.
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:41 pm

    Bethany_B wrote:

    Keep an eye on the Storm's team list and injury mail, if Reimis keeps that right wing spot (realistically he won't unless Warbrick stays injured) then he's easily the best one.

    Thanks mate, appreciate the feedback. Is there any chance of Olam being recalled? Would probably take a punt on him if he did.
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:50 pm


    @mrbrownstone I am in a similar position. Same 3 CTRS, only 1 trade left

    I will either trade Jacob Preston to any CTR I want (maybe Dane Gagai)
    Or Keenan Palasia to best CTR $489k or below (Suaali'i, Tracey the main options, maybe even be the last man in the world to trade Hammer in this year)

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