NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 78 - Everyone is totally, absolutely, 100% alive

wolfking wrote:

I think for a H2H final, you go all in on the player with the higher ceiling which is Gagai.  I'd happily play Russel over Graham too.

Thanks mate. Yeah, if it was clear cut I would definitely agree as I don't want to spend the off-season rueing a silly decision to loose points in order to play an insignificant loop.

The grey area here, though, is that playing EDG, one could mount an argument that Aitken actually has a similar ceiling to Gagai. And, arguably, as importantly, probably has a higher floor? Which could be important too, should things go pear-shaped.

Welsh Mafia wrote:As 17th man:

TU: Harrison Graham
TD: Bula

I think if there's no looping and you had to lock one in I'd have to go Bula against the heavily weakened Dolphins.

wolfking wrote:

From reading your posts and thoughts mate, it's pretty clear your gut is saying Aitken.  Don't let any of us make you second guess yourself in this instance.

Haha, yeah, I'm definitely leaning that way, I confess. Days and hours still to dwell on it, but at the moment I'm leaning that way.

Always love to factor in wise thoughts, though.

Teeth Eater wrote:

Thanks mate. Yeah, if it was clear cut I would definitely agree as I don't want to spend the off-season rueing a silly decision to loose points in order to play an insignificant loop.

The grey area here, though, is that playing EDG, one could mount an argument that Aitken actually has a similar ceiling to Gagai. And, arguably, as importantly, probably has a higher floor? Which could be important too, should things go pear-shaped.

Looking at the match ups from a purely statistical lens, I'm not sure that the Dolphins have enough of an upside v Tigers for Aitkin to make up on his average against Gags.

Aitkin is most likely to score 25-35 with a small chance he will hit a 50+.
Gags will likely score you 50-60 with a small chance of 30-40.

Unless you think you can make up 15 - 20 points in the loop I would go Gags for sure.

To my mind, Gags is the hands down better trade.

Obbeats wrote:


Looking at the match ups from a purely statistical lens, I'm not sure that the Dolphins have enough of an upside v Tigers for Aitkin to make up on his average against Gags.

Aitkin is most likely to score 25-35 with a small chance he will hit a 50+.
Gags will likely score you 50-60 with a small chance of 30-40.

Unless you think you can make up 15 - 20 points in the loop I would go Gags for sure.

To my mind, Gags is the hands down better trade.

Fair analysis, and more for me to dwell on. Again, just to play devil's advocate, as I said above, I expect Tigers to win, and they should win well. But Wayne Bennett is the Dolphins' coach, which leaves the possibility that there's a decent chance it won't be the match most of us expect it could be.

But I definitely see where you're headed and as much as I'm leaning towards Aitken & loop, it's by no means locked in. I do think those first three games will play a role in the decision too, meaning it may still not be locked in until late Friday night, or even an hour before kick off on Saturday.

Obbeats wrote:
Aitkin is most likely to score 25-35 with a small chance he will hit a 50+.
Gags will likely score you 50-60 with a small chance of 30-40.
.

Playing in the 2nd row last year, Aitken averaged 48, with a low score of 31.

Assuming he runs out as named, I think he can comfortably beat the 25-35 range you have him down for

Gagai still has a higher average based on this year's stats, so no issues going that way.
Also, if you need him for multiple weeks Aitken may be no good, depending on if Lemuelu comes back next week.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

https://x.com/theaccnz/status/1691558315904627180?s=46&t=Qm46odCKKW8EQHObqVyyfw

That’s great

Also always wondered whether NZ wanted to beat Aus or Eng more.

my tv broke wrote:Perhaps merge the Tigers and Dragons

The balmain st george illawarra western tiger dragons

Steel Dragon Tigpies, please.

Milchcow wrote:

Playing in the 2nd row last year, Aitken averaged 48, with a low score of 31.

Assuming he runs out as named, I think he can comfortably beat the 25-35 range you have him down for

Gagai still has a higher average based on this year's stats, so no issues going that way.
Also, if you need him for multiple weeks Aitken may be no good, depending on if Lemuelu comes back next week.

Oh right! I overlooked the fact that I was working on his CTR scores and that he is playing EDG this week.

Apologies - that does indeed change my analysis (but not my choosing Gags; it's a hell of a lot closer though).

wolfking wrote:Interesting.  Looks like since rejoining the Knights, Gagai has never played against the Bunnies.

Haha, yeah that was the first thing I checked too, and I had to scan the list up and down a few times to believe it was true.

Could definitely see him monstering them this week.

Play with 17(Hands included) or trade Kris to anyone up to 451k? Russell maybe? This is my last trade

danseels1985 wrote:Play with 17(Hands included) or trade Kris to anyone up to 451k? Russell maybe? This is my last trade

trade and pray