NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 7 - Vegas, Baby

easytiger wrote:

I've just worked out Edge minute averages for last year:


Lower quartile is 71.8mins (equivalent to one 80min edge, one at 64 mins)

IF the Rooters went lower than North Queensland last year at say 68 minutes;
That would be enough for one 80min edge, one 56minute edge.

Anything lower would be pretty radical compared to what we've seen (noting that the Roosters were a very conventional 74ish minutes average last year)

If the 56 minute edge was Wong at his 0.69PPM (without any improvement), that would give a 38 point average, or about 6 points of upside.

Of course, those are averages across a season and don't really account for individual selections (e.g. Nat Butcher on the edge is almost always going to get 80, whereas both Sitili and Wong may be less likely)

TLDR: On a historical basis, there doesn't seem any reason to panic about the Roosters edges

Milchcow wrote:

Possibly, certainly the last 2 of those games he only played 9 minutes for whatever reason.

The biggest issue with his breakout season was he didn't play a game until round 5, so nobody started the season with him. And it was a bit more understandable to question spending a trade to bring him in when he got his first start

easytiger wrote:

I've just worked out Edge minute averages for last year:


Lower quartile is 71.8mins (equivalent to one 80min edge, one at 64 mins)

IF the Rooters went lower than North Queensland last year at say 68 minutes;
That would be enough for one 80min edge, one 56minute edge.

Anything lower would be pretty radical compared to what we've seen (noting that the Roosters were a very conventional 74ish minutes average last year)

If the 56 minute edge was Wong at his 0.69PPM (without any improvement), that would give a 38 point average, or about 6 points of upside.

Of course, those are averages across a season and don't really account for individual selections (e.g. Nat Butcher on the edge is almost always going to get 80, whereas both Sitili and Wong may be less likely)

TLDR: On a historical basis, there doesn't seem any reason to panic about the Roosters edges

mattnz wrote:

We did find out that May is top dog over Leniu, even if starting and when guys like Whyte are playing they get minimal minutes.

wolfking wrote:

I think after yesterdays game and the disruptions, it's just too hard to gauge how the minutes will work.  Plus, Robbo is always a tricky fucker.  He said he wants Leniu as a starter so don't think that will change and who knows if May's minutes will continue.

Although, May could be what IPap was his first year at the Eels coming off the bench averaging over 50 and 50 plus minutes, or whatever it is.  Hard to tell yet.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Top dogs are Collins, Radley and JWH though

Milchcow wrote:
I guess Terrell May is the big question from the weekend.
We all knew he could put up big scores if given the minutes, but I assume most people questioned how often he would get the minutes.

1 game where he got extra time in part because of 2 injuries I don't think is enough to panic trade him in.
On the plus side, Roosters are a bye friendly team, so adding him to however many Roosters you already have shouldn't be a big problem

easytiger wrote:

I am almost certainly panic-trading him in.
I talked myself out of starting him, and now that one performance is enough to lock in my confirmation bias any lose any semblance of common sense.

I genuinely think he will keep getting enough minutes because he's that good... he's one of those few players that can tangibly shift the momentum in a match.
My hot take is that Terrell May in the next year overtakes Collins as the Roosters best prop, the Roosters confirm a contract extension this year and he ends up a one-club player