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Cap'n Ranta wrote:Know people love to wait and watch a week or two to see that cows are legit. Stops you trading in dud cows which is crippling.
Just think people are taking it too far.
Blaize - priced at 19 points. Break even is 2. His job security is reasonable (8+ weeks). If you want to wait a week he’ll be closer to 300k with a score of 30 and he’ll be priced at almost 22.
By waiting a week thinking you are mitigating risk you’ve increased it from averaging 29 to needing to average 32. If he scores again or has a good game he’s even more expensive and it goes more against you as the margin is slimmer and you have an inflated game.
If he has a poor game he’s still more expensive but for reference fantasy superstar Kane Elgey averaged 26 ish. He could be that bad but if you pick him up now it’s still 7 points of value to play at CTR.Will he be worse than Kane Elgey bad (strictly fantasy - not disparaging him or his success in getting to the highest level of professional footy)?
Fine was priced at 21 last week and is now priced at 24. It’s a much tougher value call this week.
There’s a few people who’ll go under 17 playing to pickup Galvin this week. 72k for waiting a week hurts. Still worth it and it will be for a while but he’s a bit of a supercow (not the norm).
I know there are Duncan’s, Kinis and Viliames that show the other side but if they’ve played a week acknowledge there may be more risk in waiting. The small sample size increases but the range of results you need also moves so the delay can actually make it more risky and not less.
Don’t want people to compound errors by swapping dud cows but in a season where there isn’t a lot going around (and the ability to regularly put slow burners down at 20/21) know going a week early is probably better risk management.
TLDR: 1 week is okay to wait and see. After that the value dries up really quickly so be bolderprobably buying Blaize this week. Think he’ll be better than Elgey (average just under 30 points) and may have a bigger game somewhere in there to squeeze out that bit extra. Also he’s a CTR. 30 ish there is great at this point of the season.
Capn Ranta we've missed you!
Awesome post. I agree, I've posted the same in previous seasons about waiting being a bigger risk. Brought in Galvin last week. I've been massively fighting the urge to bring in guns this week. Wish I brought in Fine last week. Interesting thoughts about Blaize, I will definitely ponder. Thanks mate!
