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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 33 - Don't listen to Your Guts, they have Sludge for Brains

    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:24 pm

    Loomer wrote:What is Lussick official BE? Footystats is 36 but that's rough estimate still? If mid 30 I think I'll loop. If manages to get 40 min I may keep him through his bye

    Arent all BE's just an estimate since it all depends on who plays and how many points are scores in the round?

    Milch can probably confirm.

    But im pretty sure a point or two either side of 36 is about as big as it will swing.
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    Post by L-Jimmy Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:25 pm

    Probably worth remembering that fantasy sports are not the primary customer of stats companies. The teams themselves are, together with their sports science consultants. Second down are the betting companies who use the data to drive their models. Third are media/fantasy types - mostly because they're comparatively broke.

    Variation in stats may well be result of the companies intentionally collecting differently to meet their particular customer requirements - e.g. performance links from clubs, outcome dependencies from gambling.
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    Post by Enchanted Glossy Flamingo Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:28 pm

    Rabbit wrote:I know the prizes are ridiculously low for fantasy and it's a free game and all, but I often wonder whether these 'stats recorders' do favour blokes in their own teams.

    The stats illuminati are secretly stealing our tackle breaks and holding them hostage in the sewers
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    Post by Chewie Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:39 pm

    Loomer wrote:What is Lussick official BE? Footystats is 36 but that's rough estimate still? If mid 30 I think I'll loop. If manages to get 40 min I may keep him through his bye

    Lussick score 30 points in one half last week, on track for 60 points cheer
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    Post by mickspicks Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:59 pm

    I've locked in Seyfarth > iKat. I'm nervous seeing all these loaded teams. I've opted to wait on Cleary and Hynes which, when typing it out, seems like a rookie error.

    With May and Liddle immediately on next week's chopping block, I've got some cash to spend. That's two trades already for next week. And that's pending the carnage that will surely come this weekend.

    Happy days!
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    Post by Welsh Mafia Fri Apr 26, 2024 3:10 pm

    sbr202 wrote:

    Got a fair bit - Cotter, Smithies, May (will need to go next week), Waddell, Salmon, Cheese.

    If that’s your MIDS I’d go Sorensen. May is gone next week, cotter will play origin, cheese is probably your HOK cover also, salmon isn’t a keeper and Waddell has a shelf life.

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    Post by Enchanted Glossy Flamingo Fri Apr 26, 2024 3:14 pm

    mickspicks wrote:I've locked in Seyfarth > iKat. I'm nervous seeing all these loaded teams. I've opted to wait on Cleary and Hynes which, when typing it out, seems like a rookie error.

    With May and Liddle immediately on next week's chopping block, I've got some cash to spend. That's two trades already for next week. And that's pending the carnage that will surely come this weekend.

    Happy days!

    If it makes you feel better my team feels like its loaded but my alleged guns don't score any points
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Fri Apr 26, 2024 3:18 pm

    Wiremu Trades Gone? wrote:SuperCoach has Grant fr 34 tackles and 3 missed

    It looks like they incorrectly recorded 4 tackles as tackles when they were actually missed :troll:
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    Post by Chewie Fri Apr 26, 2024 3:30 pm

    danseels1985 wrote:Tough question I know but who would you guys play out of Chester,Talau or Atkinson?
    Probably Chester before Atkinson, with Talua in the 22nd spot
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    Post by Milchcow Fri Apr 26, 2024 3:36 pm

    Loomer wrote:What is Lussick official BE? Footystats is 36 but that's rough estimate still? If mid 30 I think I'll loop. If manages to get 40 min I may keep him through his bye

    Official BE is 38.

    I think its more likely to be higher than lower, but actual BE depends on how high or low scoring the round is in general. But if you are in a situation where it matters within a point or 2 what the BE is, then you're in a tight spot whatever happens

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    Post by StuDogg101 Fri Apr 26, 2024 3:43 pm

    Chan up to 35 is unexpected. Now it makes me want to bench one of Mariota or Piakura 🤔
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Fri Apr 26, 2024 3:46 pm

    StuDogg101 wrote:Chan up to 35 is unexpected. Now it makes me want to bench one of Mariota or Piakura 🤔

    A Chan in the Hand is worth.....
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    Post by StuDogg101 Fri Apr 26, 2024 3:49 pm

    The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

    A Chan in the Hand is worth.....

    ... a Piakura in the NPRs? 😂
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    Post by Guest Fri Apr 26, 2024 4:00 pm

    Weekes still seems to have the best JS out of all cheap WFB's on offer
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    Post by Guest Fri Apr 26, 2024 4:19 pm

    Khany wrote:Weekes still seems to have the best JS out of all cheap WFB's on offer

    i am not convinced weekes is a good pick based on how he performed for manly last year i would want to see at least 1 game & a good performance from him
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    Post by L-Jimmy Fri Apr 26, 2024 4:25 pm

    Yeah, JS doesn't mean much if the player will score shit. Better 4 weeks of 35 than 10 weeks of 25
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    Post by BBowler Fri Apr 26, 2024 4:35 pm

    easytiger wrote:

    It's pretty bizarre.
    I'm generally pretty happy just to let the scorers score people without question, but really felt like he was involved in a lot more than 30 tackles last night.

    I compared the game to VSDT scoring (different stats people) and they're pretty close in most regards.
    NRL registered 572 tackles in that game with 59 MT, VSDT 571 with 58 MT.

    Here's players who made 20+ tackles;



    PLAYER
    NRL TCKVSDT TCKNRL MTVSDT MT
    SOUCameron Murray403923
    SOUMichael Chee Kam332933
    MELJosh King313100
    MELHarry Grant303941
    MELTrent Loiero282800
    SOUJacob Host262621
    SOUKeaon Koloamatangi252843
    SOUDamien Cook252642
    MELCameron Munster222421
    MELEliesa Katoa222011
    MELShawn Blore222200
    SOUSiliva Havili212113
    SOUJai Arrow202022
    Tackles seems like something that shouldn't be particularly contentious, and the two sets of stats are mostly within 1 or 2 of each other... but 9 less tackles with 3 of those attributed to being missed - I do recall a couple of tackles where Grant pulled out and put his hands in the air while his team mate tried to affect a turnover (think Katoa got one successfully), but surely they don't count that as a MT?

    Anyway, that's my little moan. I won't be emailing anyone because I'm not a cunt

    TLDR: Yes, yes he did

    Maybe he’s trying to keep Grant’s price down so he can pick him up next week?
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    Post by Aardvark Fri Apr 26, 2024 4:40 pm

    BBowler wrote:

    Maybe he’s trying to keep Grant’s price down so he can pick him up next week?

    Is that the stats equivalent of keeping a player on reduced minutes so other teams won't try to sign them?
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    Post by mrbrownstone Fri Apr 26, 2024 4:43 pm

    Has there been any official word on Trindall yet?

    Still tossing up between Atkinson or Weekes.
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    Post by rhinoceroo Fri Apr 26, 2024 4:55 pm

    Play Chan's 35 over Iro? Last week I looped in Iro over Strange's 35 and did profit by a whole two points.

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