NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 47 - Origin time

rhinoceroo wrote:I wonder if jumping off Armstrong early could be the equivalent move to Booze's Miller master stroke last year. Even if he plays this week, it's against Storm and the drumbeats are negative that his place is under threat. Can afford to go to Koloa, who now that he's DPP suits my bye rounds so much better.

Will have a slightly weird team, but need calculated risks to improve my horrible rank:

Grant
Carrigan Ming Koloa
Difita KPP
Galvin Atkinson
Iro Kiraz
Drinky Latrell Koula
Brailey Blore Hands Fainu
(SWalker Radley Weekes Aitken)

Do it matter who his opponent is?

Countless times people have said "Player x is going to go large tonight because the opposition is shit!" - Then they score their average

He's averaging 46, his BE is 2, defo worth holding this week imo

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Didn’t realise Klemmer was also suspended till 17 along with Bateman/Ipap being out until the 20 somethings.

Someone has to be worth it

Twal and Samuela the only two I'd consider from WT

Finch wrote:

Do it matter who his opponent is?

Countless times people have said "Player x is going to go large tonight because the opposition is shit!" - Then they score their average

He's averaging 46, his BE is 2, defo worth holding this week imo

Over a broad range, fullbacks do score less tries and fantasy points against teams like the Storm and the Panthers, yes. And if your scoring is reliant on tries, then the likelihood of a low scoring increases.

Without diving deep into it, I'd imagine the link between backs scoring badly against good teams is a lot more secure than that of backs going huge against bad teams.

Tigs wrote:

Twal and Samuela the only two I'd consider from WT

When Tigs speaks, we listen. Hope you can get an inside scoop on Armstrong before the Knights game mate. Will be 5am here when the Knights kick off

Koloamatangi averages 48 in big sample and is priced 47. He’s going to relinquish lock spot as soon as Murray is back 

Is the MID DPP that valuable

rhinoceroo wrote:

Over a broad range, fullbacks do score less tries and fantasy points against teams like the Storm and the Panthers, yes. And if your scoring is reliant on tries, then the likelihood of a low scoring increases.

Without diving deep into it, I'd imagine the link between backs scoring badly against good teams is a lot more secure than that of backs going huge against bad teams.

Going off Footy stats here...

Storm Opponents, and then the oppositon fullback scores...

Round 1: Panthers - Edwards 41
Round 2: Warriors - Tuaupiki 35
Round 3: Knights - Ponga 52
Round 5: Broncos - Sailor 27
Round 6: Bulldogs - Tracey 25
Round 7: Roosters - Tedesco 29
Round 8: Rabbits - Gray 33
Round 9: Titans - AJ 59 (The first Fullback to score a try against Storm supposedly)
Round 10: Sharks - Kennedy - 18
Round 11: Eels - Talagi - 39 (Also scored a try)
Round 12: Manly - Hopoate 32

Opposition average of Fullbacks is 35.5

Let's be honest, some of those fullback choices aren't the first choice either, but some are.

Of course there's lots more variables like weather, and if the Storm beat you by 30+ points, or a last minute try to Xavier Coates in the corner

I don't know if I'm proving your point or mine, but regardless 35 points average doesn't seem too bad.

Tigs wrote:

Twal and Samuela the only two I'd consider from WT

Yeah I think I'll grab both this week now that Hynes is out. Having 3 Tigers is somewhat concerning, but those byes and injuries.. seems too good to pass up. Fifita and Wighton to complete the max trade. Starts to look okay for Rd 16 and 19.

I’m content playing 16 because it means I no longer have to look at Cheese, Shoes, Mikaele, or Kris in my side. By bringing in Wighton and DFifi I left myself one short for 17, but that should be an easy fix….hopefully.

Gotta a cut one of Sam Walker & Strange. Both miss rd 19, thinking holding Strange purely due to the dpp.

Probably find out about Armstrong at the 24 hour cut on Saturday, same time as final teams for Titans vs Souths, so only the first game is locked, so grab your fluffy Tigs early and cuddle up

Khany wrote:Gotta a cut one of Sam Walker & Strange. Both miss rd 19, thinking holding Strange purely due to the dpp.

Pure

Finch wrote:

Going off Footy stats here...

Storm Opponents, and then the oppositon fullback scores...

Round 1: Panthers - Edwards 41
Round 2: Warriors - Tuaupiki 35
Round 3: Knights - Ponga 52
Round 5: Broncos - Sailor 27
Round 6: Bulldogs - Tracey 25
Round 7: Roosters - Tedesco 29
Round 8: Rabbits - Gray 33
Round 9: Titans - AJ 59 (The first Fullback to score a try against Storm supposedly)
Round 10: Sharks - Kennedy - 18
Round 11: Eels - Talagi - 39 (Also scored a try)
Round 12: Manly - Hopoate 32

Opposition average of Fullbacks is 35.5

Let's be honest, some of those fullback choices aren't the first choice either, but some are.

Of course there's lots more variables like weather, and if the Storm beat you by 30+ points, or a last minute try to Xavier Coates in the corner  

I don't know if I'm proving your point or mine, but regardless 35 points average doesn't seem too bad.

Given every fullback with a reasonable sample size other than Brimson scored below their average/expectations, I'm going to go with helping (if not proving) my point

Camo123 wrote:Koloamatangi averages 48 in big sample and is priced 47. He’s going to relinquish lock spot as soon as Murray is back 

Is the MID DPP that valuable

It’s also the bye coverage that is valuable

Upon reflection maybe I will just flick Koula now. Think he's an easy hold for a lot of teams but the only clear trade I have this week is Kris. He will become Fifita.

I think I've settled on getting Hands too and Koula at CTR looks potentially the next best trade out. Him or Tracey. One of them is currently surplus for r16 anyway if Edwards is back for game 2 and I'd still like to get Latrell next week.

Lomax not backing up? The Man can do anything if actually tested

WT Winfield wrote:

Yeah I think I'll grab both this week now that Hynes is out. Having 3 Tigers is somewhat concerning, but those byes and injuries.. seems too good to pass up. Fifita and Wighton to complete the max trade. Starts to look okay for Rd 16 and 19.

I might grab both too, shoes and Smithies the likely outs.

Revraiser wrote:Lomax not backing up? The Man can do anything if actually tested

I think all the Dragons from Origin will play if fit. No restings.

Just going to have to check the 24hr cut for each game

Tigs wrote:

Twal and Samuela the only two I'd consider from WT

Yeah think I’ve got to go with both to make life a little easier over the byes

Will go Drinky to Trell rd 16, if he isn't required for origin duties

Is there anything more concrete behind all these Armstrong rumours besides what Toohey said? Pretty sure this isn't the first time Sharpe has been in the 21.