2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread Part 3

Random wrote:Rabbit check out Bevan French's base stats. He is really a boom or bust player relying heavily if tries.

I think he could be good at FB with a full pre-season behind him. TBs, run metres. He looks very classy.

Welshy wrote:Playing wing that is mate would expect an increase in base stats from French playing in the 1.

He's on of those players that wouldn't get tackle busts because he's too clean and fast through the line. He just burns people for pace

SI wrote:

Sent you a PM last night, still unopened, it hurts.

Didn't even notice it until then! No hard feelings

Bren wrote:
Whoever downvoted this needs to watch Fight Club.

I actually think Honeysett has made an enemy here there were a few posts of his in a row that were downvoted. Hard to believe someone so lovable has an enemy

Also about the meeting on Tuesday. I have no idea what its fully about but I know the new naming of the of the team list structure is one of the agendas

Mighty Fishes wrote:

Bren wrote:
Whoever downvoted this needs to watch Fight Club.

I actually think Honeysett has made an enemy here there were a few posts of his in a row that were downvoted. Hard to believe someone so lovable has an enemy

Yeah, its been happening for a week or 2. Downvoting doesn't affect rep, only upvoting does, so pointless to downvote.

Honeysett wrote:

He's on of those players that wouldn't get tackle busts because he's too clean and fast through the line. He just burns people for pace

Like Barba, Locke in his day, Gordon. They've only got to touch him or grab at him and it's a TB the way they score them now. He can wheel across field and run past a few every time he runs it back and hopefully get on Norman's hip for some line breaks and meaties.

SI wrote:

Yeah, its been happening for a week or 2.  Downvoting doesn't affect rep, only upvoting does, so pointless to downvote.

Only hurts feelings

Rabbit wrote:

Like Barba, Locke in his day, Gordon. They've only got to touch him or grab at him and it's a TB the way they score them now. He can wheel across field and run past a few every time he runs it back and hopefully get on Norman's hip for some line breaks and meaties.

Also if he goes over the try line with three on him that's 3 TBs

@rabbit oh yeah no doubt, I just think he's TOO fast, although I do think he'll run off Norman's hip a lot. I like him for first try scorer bets.

Re:the downvotes,someone is having some fun doing it so all the power to them.

Rabbit wrote:

I think he could be good at FB with a full pre-season behind him. TBs, run metres. He looks very classy.

Be interested to see how they use him but agree he looks all class.

Rabbit wrote:This is a big meeting. An important meeting. It will be great, terrific. We will be winning bigly.

SI wrote:I'm gonna get roasted for this, but what meeting?

Some kind of ARLC get together where they talk about banning mobile phones from the dressing room, new teamlist protocol, and who is going to win the championship (it's all rigged by the Russians )

In previous years I wouldn't usually go with a player like French due to (foreseen) lack of base stats, but I think i'm going to slot him in to my side. Think he could go boom in that parra team. Gotta try something a little different this year, though plenty will have him.

not sure if this has been noted but for those considering buhrer:

Barry Toohey
‏@BarryToohey
Buhrer will play on edge. Barnett at lock

suggests sione and buhrer will play 80

its quite funny to think that last year michael gordon was in alot of peoples sides. pretty much priced the same this year but i've not once heard him mentioned. not considering him myself but his running game may go well behind the roosters pack/pearce

People talk a lot about teams having easy or hard draws to start the year. But I tend to discount that for a couple of reasons.


Firstly, people are not always that good at predicting what will be a tough game, and what will be an easy game. Look at pre-season top 8 predictions every pre-season and compare to the reality. What looks like a tough game on paper may not turn out to be the case.

Secondly - even if it is a tough game, and you manage to predict it correctly, it has to effect the players fantasy scores. I don't have good stats on this, and if other people have them I haven't seen them but the good players fantasy scores I believe are fixture independant and they can rack up big scores whoever they are playing. Guys like Fifita,Tedesco and others can often get almost half their fantasy points each week from a single big play - and that can happen against anyone. If anyone has actual stats, I'd like to see it. If I ever find a useful way of checking the data I will publish it.

Thirdly, trades are important. And I don't think its a good idea to select a player in your team knowing you want to trade him out in the first couple months. Its hard enough managing trades due to injuries, suspensions and form, Starting without John Smith, on the idea you can get him after 5-6 rounds when his price has dropped relies on a few things. John Smith's price actually dropping, you having spaer trades when it come times to pick him up and don't haave to deal with other issues in your squad and that his scores are about to improve letting his price go up.

As such I try and just start the year with the best players, and let that take care of itself.

But for those who want to fixture plan, here are the hardest and easiest games fantasy wise. I most likely won't be using this data for my fantasy team, but others may want to.

For a forward (Prop, hooker, backrow lock) the worst games to play are (from lowest fantasy scores going up) - the HOME or AWAY refers to the non listed team (eg Warriors away would be in new zealand, Melbourne HOME would not be in victoria)
Warriors AWAY
Cronulla AWAY
South Sydney HOME
Melbourne HOME
Parramatta HOME
Melbourne AWAY

The best games to play (from 7th best fantasy score upwards to best)
Gold Coast HOME
Brisbane HOME
Gold Coast AWAY
Penrith HOME
St George Illawarra AWAY
Newcastle AWAY
North Queensland HOME


For an outside back (fullback, centre, wing)

Worst games to play are
North Queensland AWAY
Canberra HOME
Canberra AWAY
Cronulla AWAY
Cronulla HOME
North Queensland HOME


Best games are
South Sydney AWAY
St George Illawarra AWAY
Gold Coast HOME
Wests Tigers HOME
Newcastle AWAY
Newcastle HOME


For a half (five-eighth, halfback)

Worst games are
Brisbane AWAY
Canberra HOME
Cronulla AWAY
Parramatta HOME
Cronulla HOME
Canberra AWAY


Best games are
South Sydney AWAY
Penrith AWAY
Manly AWAY
Melbourne AWAY
Wests Tigers HOME
South Sydney HOME
Newcastle HOME


This is just 2016 data - no guarantees that will continue to be the way in 2017. It also applies only to the listed home team - games played in Darwin/cairns would count as a 'home' game and games at mutual home venues (eg Homebush woudl count as a home game for one team and away for the other)
I doubt Newcastle will be as bad as they were last year, and nor would it surprise me if Canberra and Cronulla became a bit less stingy.

my tv broke wrote:its quite funny to think that last year michael gordon was in alot of peoples sides. pretty much priced the same this year but i've not once heard him mentioned. not considering him myself but his running game may go well behind the roosters pack/pearce

Like Curtis Sironen, Michael Gordon was living off the reputation of about a month of good games several years ago. I think people have finally realised he is not as good as thought.

People have not yet learnt that lesson for Sironen

I've just been looking at Kane Elgey. He has been selected in almost every team published here, and I a wonder what they are seeing that I don't.

In 16 games, he's gone over 36 only twice. One he scored 2 tries, and the other was a try and 4 goals.

Unless he become a try scoring freak, or assumes the goal kicking, he is certainly not anything you'd want in your fantasy team.

Even assuming he gets the starrting spot in round 1, what is he gong to do to make him average over 30?

mulvy wrote:Any love for Kahu if he starts in the centres? Corey Parker kicked on average 2 goals per game, so he should get those. Should score better in the centres than the wing although his limited stats don't back that up. Concerns are Broncos tough opening draw and one game where he missed eight tackles.  Probably better options around. Thoughts?

Last years scores in the centres include some single figure scores impact by injury.

Over the past 2 years he averages low 30s in the centres - which includes some game where he kicked goals. Priced at 27 i think there is some value there, assuming permanent goal kicking and a move to the centres. Perhaps not enough to put him in my team though