2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread Part 3

Milchcow wrote:
I've just been looking at Kane Elgey. He has been selected in almost every team published here, and I a wonder what they are seeing that I don't.

In 16 games, he's gone over 36 only twice. One he scored 2 tries, and the other was a try and 4 goals.

Unless he become a try scoring freak, or assumes the goal kicking, he is certainly not anything you'd want in your fantasy team.

Even assuming he gets the starrting spot in round 1, what is he gong to do to make him average over 30?

Milchcow wrote:
I've just been looking at Kane Elgey. He has been selected in almost every team published here, and I a wonder what they are seeing that I don't.

In 16 games, he's gone over 36 only twice. One he scored 2 tries, and the other was a try and 4 goals.

Unless he become a try scoring freak, or assumes the goal kicking, he is certainly not anything you'd want in your fantasy team.

Even assuming he gets the starrting spot in round 1, what is he gong to do to make him average over 30?

Milchcow wrote:
People talk a lot about teams having easy or hard draws to start the year. But I tend to discount that for a couple of reasons.


Firstly, people are not always that good at predicting what will be a tough game, and what will be an easy game. Look at pre-season top 8 predictions every pre-season and compare to the reality. What looks like a tough game on paper may not turn out to be the case.

Secondly - even if it is a tough game, and you manage to predict it correctly, it has to effect the players fantasy scores. I don't have good stats on this, and if other people have them I haven't seen them but the good players fantasy scores I believe are fixture independant and they can rack up big scores whoever they are playing. Guys like Fifita,Tedesco and others can often get almost half their fantasy points each week from a single big play - and that can happen against anyone. If anyone has actual stats, I'd like to see it. If I ever find a useful way of checking the data I will publish it.

Thirdly, trades are important. And I don't think its a good idea to select a player in your team knowing you want to trade him out in the first couple months. Its hard enough managing trades due to injuries, suspensions and form, Starting without John Smith, on the idea you can get him after 5-6 rounds when his price has dropped relies on a few things. John Smith's price actually dropping, you having spaer trades when it come times to pick him up and don't haave to deal with other issues in your squad and that his scores are about to improve letting his price go up.

As such I try and just start the year with the best players, and let that take care of itself.

But for those who want to fixture plan, here are the hardest and easiest games fantasy wise. I most likely won't be using this data for my fantasy team, but others may want to.

For a forward (Prop, hooker, backrow lock) the worst games to play are (from lowest fantasy scores going up) - the HOME or AWAY refers to the non listed team (eg Warriors away would be in new zealand, Melbourne HOME would not be in victoria)
Warriors AWAY
Cronulla AWAY
South Sydney HOME
Melbourne HOME
Parramatta HOME
Melbourne AWAY

The best games to play (from 7th best fantasy score upwards to best)
Gold Coast HOME
Brisbane HOME
Gold Coast AWAY
Penrith HOME
St George Illawarra AWAY
Newcastle AWAY
North Queensland HOME


For an outside back (fullback, centre, wing)

Worst games to play are
North Queensland AWAY
Canberra HOME
Canberra AWAY
Cronulla AWAY
Cronulla HOME
North Queensland HOME


Best games are
South Sydney AWAY
St George Illawarra AWAY
Gold Coast HOME
Wests Tigers HOME
Newcastle AWAY
Newcastle HOME


For a half (five-eighth, halfback)

Worst games are
Brisbane AWAY
Canberra HOME
Cronulla AWAY
Parramatta HOME
Cronulla HOME
Canberra AWAY


Best games are
South Sydney AWAY
Penrith AWAY
Manly AWAY
Melbourne AWAY
Wests Tigers HOME
South Sydney HOME
Newcastle HOME


This is just 2016 data - no guarantees that will continue to be the way in 2017. It also applies only to the listed home team - games played in Darwin/cairns would count as a 'home' game and games at mutual home venues (eg Homebush woudl count as a home game for one team and away for the other)
I doubt Newcastle will be as bad as they were last year, and nor would it surprise me if Canberra and Cronulla became a bit less stingy.

mulvy wrote:Matt Ballin named vice captain, does that imply he is favoured start? Split with Liddle 50/30 maybe. Ballin to make 40 odd tackles and then Liddle as impact either side of HT? Is that how people see it? Just need his legs to hold together and he's scoring well above his price and would be a solid reserve? Is injury risk the main reason people are avoiding?

Pookus McFly wrote:I can see the warriors really dominating a lot of those opening games, which really just comes down to a higher possession rate. Halves post their best fantasy scores when their teams are attacking, higher possession means more attack.

bluetige wrote:

No offence MS but littlejohn was a self inflicted fire. He was only named for round 1 because Brooks had to serve a 1 week suspension but was always going to be recalled for week 2. Maybe you didn't know so that would of hurt

Pookus McFly wrote:I consider all elements when I make my fantasy side. The only person I have really been looking at because of a favorable draw is SJ. I can see the warriors really dominating a lot of those opening games, which really just comes down to a higher possession rate. Halves post their best fantasy scores when their teams are attacking, higher possession means more attack. SJ is one of the few players who can score a hundred on his first game (knights btw  ) and become unaffordable for the remainder of the season. But yeah, mostly I think the draw shouldn't affect your choices. Players like Teddy and BJ will rack up points no matter who their opposition because their million tacklebreaks per game will still occur regardless of the flow of the game. Likewise, a tackle-hungry forward will still go out and make all his tackles regardless of opponent. But that said, I don't know how anybody can look at the draw and think a Bronco's back will be a good idea to start the season!

my tv broke wrote:

to do that they'd need to win the middle and the warriors play the storm and the dogs in rnd 2 and rnd 3. with the injury concerns in the warriors middle, someone is going to need to step the hell up (vete, lisone, etc)

Milchcow wrote:
People talk a lot about teams having easy or hard draws to start the year. But I tend to discount that for a couple of reasons.


Firstly, people are not always that good at predicting what will be a tough game, and what will be an easy game. Look at pre-season top 8 predictions every pre-season and compare to the reality. What looks like a tough game on paper may not turn out to be the case.

Secondly - even if it is a tough game, and you manage to predict it correctly, it has to effect the players fantasy scores. I don't have good stats on this, and if other people have them I haven't seen them but the good players fantasy scores I believe are fixture independant and they can rack up big scores whoever they are playing. Guys like Fifita,Tedesco and others can often get almost half their fantasy points each week from a single big play - and that can happen against anyone. If anyone has actual stats, I'd like to see it. If I ever find a useful way of checking the data I will publish it.

Thirdly, trades are important. And I don't think its a good idea to select a player in your team knowing you want to trade him out in the first couple months. Its hard enough managing trades due to injuries, suspensions and form, Starting without John Smith, on the idea you can get him after 5-6 rounds when his price has dropped relies on a few things. John Smith's price actually dropping, you having spaer trades when it come times to pick him up and don't haave to deal with other issues in your squad and that his scores are about to improve letting his price go up.

As such I try and just start the year with the best players, and let that take care of itself.

But for those who want to fixture plan, here are the hardest and easiest games fantasy wise. I most likely won't be using this data for my fantasy team, but others may want to.

For a forward (Prop, hooker, backrow lock) the worst games to play are (from lowest fantasy scores going up) - the HOME or AWAY refers to the non listed team (eg Warriors away would be in new zealand, Melbourne HOME would not be in victoria)
Warriors AWAY
Cronulla AWAY
South Sydney HOME
Melbourne HOME
Parramatta HOME
Melbourne AWAY

The best games to play (from 7th best fantasy score upwards to best)
Gold Coast HOME
Brisbane HOME
Gold Coast AWAY
Penrith HOME
St George Illawarra AWAY
Newcastle AWAY
North Queensland HOME


For an outside back (fullback, centre, wing)

Worst games to play are
North Queensland AWAY
Canberra HOME
Canberra AWAY
Cronulla AWAY
Cronulla HOME
North Queensland HOME


Best games are
South Sydney AWAY
St George Illawarra AWAY
Gold Coast HOME
Wests Tigers HOME
Newcastle AWAY
Newcastle HOME


For a half (five-eighth, halfback)

Worst games are
Brisbane AWAY
Canberra HOME
Cronulla AWAY
Parramatta HOME
Cronulla HOME
Canberra AWAY


Best games are
South Sydney AWAY
Penrith AWAY
Manly AWAY
Melbourne AWAY
Wests Tigers HOME
South Sydney HOME
Newcastle HOME


This is just 2016 data - no guarantees that will continue to be the way in 2017. It also applies only to the listed home team - games played in Darwin/cairns would count as a 'home' game and games at mutual home venues (eg Homebush woudl count as a home game for one team and away for the other)
I doubt Newcastle will be as bad as they were last year, and nor would it surprise me if Canberra and Cronulla became a bit less stingy.

White Lightning wrote:

Vete is in my team based on this. Matulino is out for the first 5 rounds & Lillyman has apparently picked up a few niggles/injuries in pre season plus his age factor so I expect Vete to be the number 1 prop & get 45-50 mins especially with Tevaga probably being a bench hooker. It's time for the young boys like Vete, Lisone, Sipley (who only needs goods mins because he's a monster with great potential) to step up.
Also I haven't seen Mortimer's name come up. With the Segeyaro deal not happening anytime soon the word is the Sharks will run 2 hookers (good for Prior & expect 50ish mins) & Mortimer looks like being the starting hooker & should get 50-55 mins plus he's a dpp hok/hlf. To me he's a better 3rd half than Elgey & I've always been a fan of his workrate & application.

my tv broke wrote:I am expecting both cook and farah on the field at the same time through the middle of the game.

Beepbeep_imaJeep wrote:

I wouldn't count on Vete starting, Lisone is the one in the predicted lineups

Chewie wrote:A few names to add to the rookie watchlist

Marcello Montoya - CBY winger
Zac Woolford - CBY hooker
Corey Jensen - NQL FRF

Beepbeep_imaJeep wrote:

I wouldn't count on Vete starting, Lisone is the one in the predicted lineups