HomeWhite Lightning wrote:
Yeah congrats to Shanbon. He should name it Junbon if it's a boy or Shanior if it's a girl.
2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread Part 3
Milchcow- Moderator
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RandomSil- Moderator
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Anyone else keen to jump into the 9s Fantasy Comp.
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t395-nine-s-fantasy-forum-run-nine-s-fantasy-competition
Also one more spot available in the Ultimate League Draft Comp
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t329p360-ultimate-footy
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t395-nine-s-fantasy-forum-run-nine-s-fantasy-competition
Also one more spot available in the Ultimate League Draft Comp
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t329p360-ultimate-footy
Chewie- Fanatic
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Milchcow wrote:
This is probably the best page in the fantasy prospectus.
http://renegadesfs.com/index.php/nrl/nrl-fantasy/item/1461-fantasy-psychology-the-problem-with-your-gut
That's a great read...
Let me add
Club bias This is the tendency to pick players from the club you support. You might have extra knowledge on the ins and outs of your club's players, but this can tip the scales on your decisions especially when choosing between 2 similar players for one position in your fantasy team, if you have Club bias you will pick the player from your club. A good fantasy player uses the extra Club knowledge to their advantage without bias.
On that note: Go the Eels!
PS: I use the Force, not my gut!
my tv broke- Fanatics Immortal
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Chewie wrote:
Club bias This is the tendency to pick players from the club you support. You might have extra knowledge on the ins and outs of your club's players, but this can tip the scales on your decisions especially when choosing between 2 similar players for one position in your fantasy team, if you have Club bias you will pick the player from your club. A good fantasy player uses the extra Club knowledge to their advantage without bias.
i think this can work in some sort of reverse order. I get interested in players from clubs I dont know alot about because I can 'see what i want to see' in terms of minutes, how they will be used, etc.
with the broncos and knowing the team well (not personally and no inside knowledge, but just having a better knowledge of who's coming through and how they will be used) i dont get carried away wanting our cheapies. i tend to rarely have broncos players in fantasy over the years
my tv broke- Fanatics Immortal
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Tohu Harris has signed a four year deal with the Warriors from 2018
bluetige- Posts : 2235
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wow, the kiwi dollar is doing pretty goodmy tv broke wrote:Tohu Harris has signed a four year deal with the Warriors from 2018
Chewie- Fanatic
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my tv broke wrote:
i think this can work in some sort of reverse order. I get interested in players from clubs I dont know alot about because I can 'see what i want to see' in terms of minutes, how they will be used, etc.
with the broncos and knowing the team well (not personally and no inside knowledge, but just having a better knowledge of who's coming through and how they will be used) i dont get carried away wanting our cheapies. i tend to rarely have broncos players in fantasy over the years
The last couple of years and I haven't had Broncoes
in my team. I remember having Macca, Parker, and Kahu in my team before that
I might have McGuire in my team this year as my token Bronco if he plays lock
my tv broke- Fanatics Immortal
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Also, not necessarily fantasy relevant, but RTS is the warriors captain for 2017
Oz Sport Mad- Posts : 1927
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Agree with the others about that Renegades Fantasy Psychology page indeed being a good read.
Only issue I have is that I feel it may have in effect created yet another form of bias:
Overanalysis and Reverse Psychology Bias
This is the tendency to overanalyse what your gut is telling you is a good call and to end up doing the opposite of what your gut/brain is suggesting; primarily because you remember back to this particular article about psychology/bias and subsequently psyche yourself out.
For fucks sake, it's like holding a mirror up to another mirror!!
Only issue I have is that I feel it may have in effect created yet another form of bias:
Overanalysis and Reverse Psychology Bias
This is the tendency to overanalyse what your gut is telling you is a good call and to end up doing the opposite of what your gut/brain is suggesting; primarily because you remember back to this particular article about psychology/bias and subsequently psyche yourself out.
For fucks sake, it's like holding a mirror up to another mirror!!
my tv broke- Fanatics Immortal
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Where is the Pure Fucking Luck bias?
lloosemcgoose- Posts : 142
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Chewie wrote:
That's a great read...
Let me add
Club bias This is the tendency to pick players from the club you support. You might have extra knowledge on the ins and outs of your club's players, but this can tip the scales on your decisions especially when choosing between 2 similar players for one position in your fantasy team, if you have Club bias you will pick the player from your club. A good fantasy player uses the extra Club knowledge to their advantage without bias.
On that note: Go the Eels!
PS: I use the Force, not my gut!
I would also extend club bias to teams that your not perticually fond of
eg knights because they are shit
Chucky- Posts : 3180
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I believe he is suffering from what is called 'Dwarf head syndrome'.my tv broke wrote:Nate Myles, Konrad Hurrell, Adam Reynolds, and Jake Trbojevic were originally selected in Bennett’s squad but have all withdrawn due to injury.
anyone know what Myle's injury problem is?
Congrats to Shanbon on the new addition.
Milchcow- Moderator
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More on biases
One that I think comes up in fantasy team selection is the positive bias (related to confirmation bias)
People like to look at the previous years winner to get ideas on how to get a winning team themselves.
"A-ha!" you might say. "Last years winner started with 2 gun hookers*, therefore I should star with 2 gun hookers if I want to win"
But such knowledge by itself is not useful. To find out if starting 2 gun hookers is actually a good strategy you really need to look at all teams who started that way and compare how they all finished. It might be that starting with 2 gun hookers is a bad strategy, and that victory was achieved despite using it, not because of it.
(it also ignores the fact the emergence of rookies/cash cows varies across positions year to year and successful strategies one year aren't necessarily going to be successful the next - but that is a different type of issue)
It's not enough to go through the trade history of a successful team, unless you also repeat the process with unsuccessful teams.
As well as trying to look for evidence that your strategy is good, you should also be looking for evidence that your strategy is bad (hopegully you won't find any, but its the not looking that kills people)
* I don't know if last years winner actually had 2 gun hookers or not, just wanted a hypothetical example
Some interesting related links
The 4 card task
https://www.socialpsychology.org/teach/wason.htm
the 2-4-6 Sequence
https://www.techwell.com/techwell-insights/2012/11/confirmation-bias-most-human-tendencies
Oz Sport Mad- Posts : 1927
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Chucky wrote:
I believe he is suffering from what is called 'Dwarf head syndrome'.
Congrats to Shanbon on the new addition.
Exclusive images of Myles recovering in hospital (he appears to have suffered some tanning as a side effect also):
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At last the Warriors sign a decent forward for the future. I know I've bagged their management on here re recruitment but now I will praise them for an excellent signing in T. Harris.
I also can see the logic behind appointing RTS as captain. The problem has been off field application which has flowed through to the football field. RTS is a true professional off the field & will set the benchmark of what is expected.
I also can see the logic behind appointing RTS as captain. The problem has been off field application which has flowed through to the football field. RTS is a true professional off the field & will set the benchmark of what is expected.
Chewie- Fanatic
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rhinoceroo wrote:The renegades fantasy prospectus is out. Haven't had the chance to look yet, but as big a bunch of tools as they are on there last year's was a good read.
I had a quick look at a few of my Players Of Interest in their prospectus, they didn't seem to agree with my bias
Go figure
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Chewie wrote:
I had a quick look at a few of my Players Of Interest in their prospectus, they didn't seem to agree with my bias
Go figure
I had a read through as well & it was an excellent read but like anything it's just their opinion. The team lists are up for debate. For example there's no way I'd have Sironen starting in the Manly 2fr.
standard-issue- Moderator
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Congratulations Shanbon.
I'm thinking said progeny should be called BonBon.
I'm thinking said progeny should be called BonBon.
my tv broke- Fanatics Immortal
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White Lightning wrote:
I had a read through as well & it was an excellent read but like anything it's just their opinion. The team lists are up for debate. For example there's no way I'd have Sironen starting in the Manly 2fr.
only teamlist i looked at was broncos and they had Glenn starting 2rf, and well thats just plain incorrect.
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White Lightning wrote:
I don't understand the Lamb pick. I think you should get rid of him before French.
Lamb knocks out consistent kms above 350, he'll be this years Cleary you'll see