2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread Part 3

Chewie wrote:A few names to add to the rookie watchlist

Marcello Montoya - CBY winger
Zac Woolford - CBY hooker
Corey Jensen - NQL FRF

Beepbeep_imaJeep wrote:

I wouldn't count on Vete starting, Lisone is the one in the predicted lineups

Milchcow wrote:
People talk a lot about teams having easy or hard draws to start the year. But I tend to discount that for a couple of reasons.


Firstly, people are not always that good at predicting what will be a tough game, and what will be an easy game. Look at pre-season top 8 predictions every pre-season and compare to the reality. What looks like a tough game on paper may not turn out to be the case.

Secondly - even if it is a tough game, and you manage to predict it correctly, it has to effect the players fantasy scores. I don't have good stats on this, and if other people have them I haven't seen them but the good players fantasy scores I believe are fixture independant and they can rack up big scores whoever they are playing. Guys like Fifita,Tedesco and others can often get almost half their fantasy points each week from a single big play - and that can happen against anyone. If anyone has actual stats, I'd like to see it. If I ever find a useful way of checking the data I will publish it.

Thirdly, trades are important. And I don't think its a good idea to select a player in your team knowing you want to trade him out in the first couple months. Its hard enough managing trades due to injuries, suspensions and form, Starting without John Smith, on the idea you can get him after 5-6 rounds when his price has dropped relies on a few things. John Smith's price actually dropping, you having spaer trades when it come times to pick him up and don't haave to deal with other issues in your squad and that his scores are about to improve letting his price go up.

As such I try and just start the year with the best players, and let that take care of itself.

But for those who want to fixture plan, here are the hardest and easiest games fantasy wise. I most likely won't be using this data for my fantasy team, but others may want to.

For a forward (Prop, hooker, backrow lock) the worst games to play are (from lowest fantasy scores going up) - the HOME or AWAY refers to the non listed team (eg Warriors away would be in new zealand, Melbourne HOME would not be in victoria)
Warriors AWAY
Cronulla AWAY
South Sydney HOME
Melbourne HOME
Parramatta HOME
Melbourne AWAY

The best games to play (from 7th best fantasy score upwards to best)
Gold Coast HOME
Brisbane HOME
Gold Coast AWAY
Penrith HOME
St George Illawarra AWAY
Newcastle AWAY
North Queensland HOME


For an outside back (fullback, centre, wing)

Worst games to play are
North Queensland AWAY
Canberra HOME
Canberra AWAY
Cronulla AWAY
Cronulla HOME
North Queensland HOME


Best games are
South Sydney AWAY
St George Illawarra AWAY
Gold Coast HOME
Wests Tigers HOME
Newcastle AWAY
Newcastle HOME


For a half (five-eighth, halfback)

Worst games are
Brisbane AWAY
Canberra HOME
Cronulla AWAY
Parramatta HOME
Cronulla HOME
Canberra AWAY


Best games are
South Sydney AWAY
Penrith AWAY
Manly AWAY
Melbourne AWAY
Wests Tigers HOME
South Sydney HOME
Newcastle HOME


This is just 2016 data - no guarantees that will continue to be the way in 2017. It also applies only to the listed home team - games played in Darwin/cairns would count as a 'home' game and games at mutual home venues (eg Homebush woudl count as a home game for one team and away for the other)
I doubt Newcastle will be as bad as they were last year, and nor would it surprise me if Canberra and Cronulla became a bit less stingy.

White Lightning wrote:

On the nrlsctalk forum some dude posted that Montoya is being talked up by his team mates for a wing spot in round 1.

Warriors wrote: This year I think the top four/five will be Canberra, Storm, Sharks, Panthers and Cowboys.

Bren wrote:

That's surprising. I really though Des would give Brenko Lee a shot or even Kennar, he plays CTR or wing right?

Bren wrote:

Wow. You really think the Cowboys can stay a top 4 side after losing Tamou and Hannant? I might be biased but I truly believe with the addition of Korbin Sims the Broncos can and should be a top 4 side.

White Lightning wrote:Of course he might turn it around at the Broncos & if he shows that sort of attitude he won't last very long in first grade there.

Bren wrote:

Wow. You really think the Cowboys can stay a top 4 side after losing Tamou and Hannant? I might be biased but I truly believe with the addition of Korbin Sims the Broncos can and should be a top 4 side.

Bren wrote:

Wow. You really think the Cowboys can stay a top 4 side after losing Tamou and Hannant? I might be biased but I truly believe with the addition of Korbin Sims the Broncos can and should be a top 4 side.

my tv broke wrote:

I think on our side of the fence we saw what Bennett was able to get out of Blair and expect similar turnaround from K Sims.

Warriors wrote: Broncoes

White Lightning wrote:

I could be wrong & I usually am but I read Lee was brought for centre cover & apparently Kennar is injured but I do agree you'd think Lee would be the obvious choice. Of course what team mates say & what the coach thinks are not necessarily the same.

Warriors wrote:

I think the thing that I can draw from your post and the draw that stands out for me most is that outside backs struggle against top four sides - Canberra, Sharks and Cowboys from last year. This year I think the top four/five will be Canberra, Storm, Sharks, Panthers and Cowboys. Any outside backs playing three or more of these teams in the first five or six weeks I will look to avoid (if choosing between two players, with price also coming into it).

e.g Broncoes play Sharks, Cowboys, Storm, Raiders in opening month. I looked at Jordan Kahu as value across the whole season but passed due to this.

Tigers play Panthers, Raiders, Storm and Cowboys in opening six games also so I'm gambling that Tedesco has 1 or 2 quiet games in this period so won't start with him.

Raiders play Cowboys and Sharks in opening two weeks so will pass on spending big on Croker to start the season.

I don't think you can predict the draw well enough to know how well halves and forwards will score early on in the season.

White Lightning wrote:Haha when I first saw the name Montoya I straight away thought of Tony Montana in Scarface.

Pookus McFly wrote:I consider all elements when I make my fantasy side. The only person I have really been looking at because of a favorable draw is SJ. I can see the warriors really dominating a lot of those opening games, which really just comes down to a higher possession rate. Halves post their best fantasy scores when their teams are attacking, higher possession means more attack. SJ is one of the few players who can score a hundred on his first game (knights btw  ) and become unaffordable for the remainder of the season. But yeah, mostly I think the draw shouldn't affect your choices. Players like Teddy and BJ will rack up points no matter who their opposition because their million tacklebreaks per game will still occur regardless of the flow of the game. Likewise, a tackle-hungry forward will still go out and make all his tackles regardless of opponent. But that said, I don't know how anybody can look at the draw and think a Bronco's back will be a good idea to start the season!

White Lightning wrote:If I was to take an educated guess my money would be Kaufusi since Bellamy has played him in the 2fr before & reports are that he has been training there in pre season along withe other options. I could very well be wrong though.