2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

robloomes wrote:Surely Leilua will be one of the most traded in players for this week. This week is probably do or die for him.

White Lightning wrote:

I think he'll play origin.

Chewie wrote:Curious to see how Guth goes after I traded him out for CWalker.

I'm bracing myself for a stellar performance from him 50+ points...season high...

Pookus McFly wrote:

I think the concensus amongst Laurie and Sterlo is that his defence is not up to it just yet (but he is "in the mix")
I'd throw him in, what is he going to do- embarrass NSW?

Pookus McFly wrote:Holding faith with Guthers until Moses runs out in blue and gold.
Who else is being a stone cold Gutherfucker?

Milchcow wrote:

The TLT cut off exists for Big League magazine printing deadlines. So probably won't move for other game kick-offs

Chewie wrote:Curious to see how Guth goes after I traded him out for CWalker.

I'm bracing myself for a stellar performance from him 50+ points...season high...

Pookus McFly wrote:Holding faith with Guthers until Moses runs out in blue and gold.
Who else is being a stone cold Gutherfucker?

bluetige wrote:^ for what reason?

multiple.scoregasms wrote:I've opened up 5 different spreadsheets to run through all this data so you fuckers better appreciate it.

The Bye Period Hooker Conundrum feat Cameron Smith

As we all know Smith has consistently been the top dog of fantasy. For short periods of time other hookers have come close or even exceeded his scoring in the short term but it always comes back to Smith at the top of the food chain. Yesterday I touched out the merits of trading him out for Cook but this will be much more detailed so if you don't want to read a wall of numbers look away now.

Between round 12 and 19 Smith plays 4 games. Round 13, 14, 16 and 17. Round 13 and 16 will be backing up from origin so his past stats during this time will have an impact on his keep-ability over this period. Lets dig into the stats.

2012: Smith averaged 67.73 in 78 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 48 points in 58 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith managed to score 78 points in 80 minutes.

2013: Smith averaged 70.81 in 80.14 minutes. Round 13 backing up from Origin 1 Smith posted 66 points in 80 minutes. This was his only post Origin performance due to Storm byes.

2014: Smith averaged 65.7 in 78.7 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 67 points in 80 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 53 points in 71 minutes. Round 18 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 54 points in 80 minutes.

2015: Smith averaged 61.3 and 79.7 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin Smith scored 49 in 73 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 72 in 80 minutes. Round 18 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 42 points in 80 minutes.

2016: Smith averaged 66.6 points in 79.4 minutes. Round 13 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 58 points in 80 minutes. Round 16 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 60 in 80 minutes. Round 19 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 54 in 80 minutes.

Looking at all this Smith has averaged 58.4 points in 76.83 minutes. He has only missed meaningful minutes in 1 game. We will use this number as his "post origin average" from here on out.

This year Smith is averaging 63 points. we can reasonable assume he will continue to score this in non bye games.

Round 13, a round where many solid bye planners may be short on numbers Smith is going to give us 58.4 points. Round 14 Smith is going to give us 63 points. Round 16 where most players will be fielding atleast 17 players Smith will give us 58.4 points. Round 17 Smith will give us his usual 63 points. This gives us a total of 243 points from Smith between round 12 and 19. Let's look at some other options during this period.

Damien Cook: Currently averaging 34.1 points per game. If Farah is selected for Origin we can reasonably assume Cook scores 45-50 in bye rounds. Round 12 Cook gives us a 50. Round 13 Cook has the bye. Round 14 with Farah back Cook manages to post his season average of 34 points this gives us 84 points between 12 and 14 which is easily outscored by Smith's 121 this suggests it may not be worth making this trade in round 12. Over the rest of the bye period Cook plays 4 games to Smith 2 in some very difficult bye rounds, where Smith plays in easily coverable rounds. Cook will give us 50 in round 15, 34 points in round 17 giving us 84 points between 15 and 18. In this period Smith will score 121. However Cook misses an easily coverable Round 16 where only Rabbitohs and Eels have the bye so it can be reasonable assumed Cook will be covered by another 40 point scorer giving a total of 124 points, 3 more than Smith. Cook then plays both 18 and 19 which are very difficult to cover and most won't have 17 in both. Cook gives 50 and 34 during these games that Smith would not. Between round 15 and 19 Smith scored 121 with Cook(and round 16 replacement) score 208 points. Is this worth 2 trades? You be the judge.

Jake Friend: Currently averaging 42 points per game. If Pearce is selected for Origin, Watson should move to the halves. With Cordner/Guerra/Napa likely to play Origin Carter will be required to fill in the pack and with Matterson injured there is no one left to cover hooker leaving Friend to play 80. In games of atleast 70 minutes last year Jake Friend averaged 62.3 points per game. In round 12 Friend gives us 62 points. In round 13 Friend gives us 42. In round 13 Friend gives us 42 for a total of 146. In this time Smith will score 121. Advantage Friend. Friend then has a bye in round 15 before giving us 42 in round 16 and 17 for a total of 84. Smith in this time scores 121 taking a huge chunk out of the advantage Friend gained in the early bye rounds. Friend then plays round 17 for 62 points where Smith does not before also missing round 19. This gives Friend a total advantage of 50 points over the byes. Worth 2 trades?

Cameron McInnes: Currenly averaging 55.7. Misses round 12 so not worth trading until atleast round 15. From round 15-19 McInnes only misses one game in round 18. Round 15 McInnes will give us 55. Round 16 McInnes will give us 55. Round 17 McInnes will give us 55. Round 18 McInnes and Smith both have the bye. Round 19 McInnes will give us 55. McInnes total between 15 and 19 is 220. Smith total is 121. Worth the trades?

TL;DR Trading Smith to McInnes in round 15 looks like the best option over the byes as McInnes isn't relying on others being selected for origin to be a good option. It is yet to be seen whether it is worth the 2 trades to bank 100 points over the byes.

Chucky wrote:@multiple.scoregasms
Just read the hooker write up.
Great analysis and should help me decide on a plan of attack.
It hasn't helped yet, but it should.
Appreciate the time and effort.

I'm in a similar boat re Leiluia. I was thinking about going Dylan Walker to BJ this week, with origin being the only negative.

zorasdomain wrote:

Walker to Leilua is something I am considering for next week too. It's just the Origin concern that's putting me off. I already have Smith, Fifita and Slater who will miss 4 games each, as well as Vaughan and DeBelin who are less likely but are being mentioned in Origin conversations. I really don't want to end up with any more Origin players.