2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 39

The Cowboys can't catch a break with news young forward Patrick Kaufusi is out for the season after he underwent surgery on his foot.

SI wrote:

I look as far forward as Round 19, HOWEVER the focus is on 12 to 15 at this stage. I'm partial to the odd sideways trade so after 15 will burn trades for 18/19.  If I only have 5 trades left after 19 but have made up significant ground then I'll be happy.

interesting. Not that i'm planning to, but just calculated that if i used every trade from here until end of round 19 i would have 4 left at that point to start round 20

White Lightning wrote:I read an interesting article on renegades fantasy sports where he goes through what they call the bosses teams which there are 12 to see how they're placed for the bye rounds. They said over rounds 12,13,15,16, 18 & 19 you ideally want 78-80 players with anything greater than 81 players is pretty good. My tally is 78 players. That is assuming Klokstad, Abbey & R. Jennings don't play any of the bye rounds so I excluded them.

Yeah, Steve Nicholls is the Milchy of Renegades, however he is human not bovine. That was a great article and I screenshotted a couple of bits for future reference.

I will say this though, as OnTheLast said-if you want to really fine tune Bye planning and go grey in the process, reducing NPR's in smaller bye rounds is the icing on the cake. Those fuckers don't score points in 13/16/19.

Sounds impossible, particularly Round 16 with Rabbits/Eels, but that is the only time I personally contemplate sideways trading.

Fortitude wrote:Ponga to Munster or Hayne. Will play in my 17. Munster is ideal in most aspects apart from the difference in cash.

Hayne playing SOO will cost me, but the extra dollerydoos will allow me to pump up my weakspots.

Anyone else giggle reading dollerydoos!

Since I had to fix up my outside backs for this round I have to keep Lamb, Hess & CHN for round 10. How am I looking for this round:

Smith, Cook
Fifita, N. Brown, Wallace, F. Kaufusi
JDB, Surgess, Crichton, Hess (CHN, Winterstein)
SJ, Lamb (Klokstad, Field)
T-Trbo, Cotric (Kelly, Talakai)
Slater, RTS, Hayne (Abbey, R. Jennings)

My trades were:
Ponga out - Hayne in
Idris out - T-Trbo in

Thoughts & thanks.

White Lightning wrote:I read an interesting article on renegades fantasy sports where he goes through what they call the bosses teams which there are 12 to see how they're placed for the bye rounds. They said over rounds 12,13,15,16, 18 & 19 you ideally want 78-80 players with anything greater than 81 players is pretty good. My tally is 78 players. That is assuming Klokstad, Abbey & R. Jennings don't play any of the bye rounds so I excluded them.

I don't disagree that numbers of players is a good proxy, however one has to be really careful not to look at that in isolation.

I.e there is bugger all gain in picking up a scraps player from the Eels or Rabbits that might up your number by 3 only to have him score a combined 30 points across those 3 games... In many cases you'd be better off cashing out to a NPR and using the cash to upgrade to a GUN for the bye period. You might end up having 3 less in your total player number but could easily add 100 points to your bye round total.

Thats really what it comes down to for me in answering the original question, and in order to get your head around the above for your particular team you have to have a look at the whole bye period combined.

my tv broke wrote:

SI wrote:

I look as far forward as Round 19, HOWEVER the focus is on 12 to 15 at this stage. I'm partial to the odd sideways trade so after 15 will burn trades for 18/19.  If I only have 5 trades left after 19 but have made up significant ground then I'll be happy.

interesting. Not that i'm planning to, but just calculated that if i used every trade from here until end of round 19 i would have 4 left at that point to start round 20

You could go sideways fuckways always and make up a shit tonne of ground if you did. Then you hold on to your hat for the last couple of months and enjoy the ride and pray the roller coaster stays on track.

Last year was the first year I actually finished with a trade still I the bank. A few others did as well. So it is possible to get a good run of injuries/suspensions. That's where the luck comes in.

SI wrote:

Anyone else giggle reading dollerydoos!

The receptionist at the mechanic sure didn't at my $1800 dollarydoos!!! comment on the phone. Prude.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I don't disagree that numbers of players is a good proxy, however one has to be really careful not to look at that in isolation.

I.e there is bugger all gain in picking up a scraps player from the Eels or Rabbits that might up your number by 3 only to have him score a combined 30 points across those 3 games... In many cases you'd be better off cashing out to a NPR and using the cash to upgrade to a GUN for the bye period. You might end up having 3 less in your total player number but could easily add 100 points to your bye round total.

Thats really what it comes down to for me in answering the original question, and in order to get your head around the above for your particular team you have to have a look at the whole bye period combined.

Yeah you hit the nail on the head. It's not about numbers but it is about quality. For example Gallen could score 65-70 in 1 round & is capable of outscoring 2-3 bum players who just score 20-30 points each.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

White Lightning wrote:I read an interesting article on renegades fantasy sports where he goes through what they call the bosses teams which there are 12 to see how they're placed for the bye rounds. They said over rounds 12,13,15,16, 18 & 19 you ideally want 78-80 players with anything greater than 81 players is pretty good. My tally is 78 players. That is assuming Klokstad, Abbey & R. Jennings don't play any of the bye rounds so I excluded them.

I don't disagree that numbers of players is a good proxy, however one has to be really careful not to look at that in isolation.

I.e there is bugger all gain in picking up a scraps player from the Eels or Rabbits that might up your number by 3 only to have him score a combined 30 points across those 3 games... In many cases you'd be better off cashing out to a NPR and using the cash to upgrade to a GUN for the bye period. You might end up having 3 less in your total player number but could easily add 100 points to your bye round total.

Thats really what it comes down to for me in answering the original question, and in order to get your head around the above for your particular team you have to have a look at the whole bye period combined.

Agree for the most part. And again, if you want to grey early then looking at players who will increase minutes/responsibility over Origin and thus their scrappy regular scores increase is the trick. It's one part research and one part luck.

I'm stuck on these two trades:

CHN > NBrown

Or

CHN > AElliot
Ponga > TTurbo

Thoughts guys?

Fortitude wrote:

SI wrote:

Anyone else giggle reading dollerydoos!

The receptionist at the mechanic sure didn't at my $1800 dollarydoos!!! comment on the phone. Prude.

Hahaha, but was she hot?

Or did I just assume gender, I guess it could have been one of those non binary fucks, they don't have a sense of fucking humour.

SI wrote:

You could go sideways fuckways always and make up a shit tonne of ground if you did. Then you hold on to your hat for the last couple of months and enjoy the ride and pray the roller coaster stays on track.  

Last year was the first year I actually finished with a trade still I the bank. A few others did as well. So it is possible to get a good run of injuries/suspensions. That's where the luck comes in.

I think I finished with one trade unused last year as well. Though was a little off the pace come the finish.

I seem reasonably well set up this year, better than the last few. Just punched names into the bye planner and "by the numbers" I have 80 players across 12, 13, 15, 16, 18 & 19 including assumption both Hayne and Trbo play origin. Of course, some of those are going to be useless at this stage (Hampton/Niko), but it seems like a good platform.

one other point to add about bye planning is if your loading up on bunnies/eels players for round 12/15/18, you'll need to be careful and watch what players you have for round 13, 16 and 19 exactly. no point wasting a trade for an extra player in round 12 when you're being forced to use a crappy 10pt player in your 17 for round 13

.

hymenbustas wrote:I'm stuck on these two trades:

CHN > NBrown

Or

CHN > AElliot
Ponga > TTurbo

Thoughts guys?

I like 2 but only because I am staying away from Brown and boarding the Elliot express.

I did end up making a change to my trades this week.

Winterstien and Hess out Gallen and Elliot in. $252k in the bank for half and centre next week.

No Worries wrote:The Cowboys can't catch a break with news young forward Patrick Kaufusi is out for the season after he underwent surgery on his foot.

They are pushing to sign Charlie Gubb mid-season and I would say it's looking a lot more likely with Gavet about to announce a 2 year contract extension.

hymenbustas wrote:I'm stuck on these two trades:

CHN > NBrown

Or

CHN > AElliot
Ponga > TTurbo

Thoughts guys?

I want less people to have N. Brown personally.

However I still think CHN has money to make and I think Ponga could be worth holding. I would sit on the trades for a week or two. You aren't really losing out on much or anything by doing so.

hymenbustas wrote:I'm stuck on these two trades:

CHN > NBrown

Or

CHN > AElliot
Ponga > TTurbo

Thoughts guys?

No wonder you're stuck because I'm stuck trying to determine which set of trades are better. I think I would lean towards the first one but if Elliot starts tonight as has been predicted the 2nd one could be good as long as you can also get Brown before round 12. I think in summary if you have the capability to hold Ponga without compromising your 3 starting wfb's I would go with the first one. Elliott will still be cheap enough to get later on & there won't be much price difference between Ponga & T-Trbo later on if Ponga looks like he won't get a run anytime soon.