2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 41

I don't wanna make the wrong choice, so maybe I will pick up all 3

So Lone Scout is saying have to named and play 4 games to get DPP. I was sure it was named and played 3 and TLT 4th named gets the DPP. Didn't this happen last year? Tofu played 3 but never got named the 4th time?

Loomer wrote:So Lone Scout is saying have to named and play 4 games to get DPP. I was sure it was named and played 3 and TLT 4th named gets the DPP. Didn't this happen last year? Tofu played 3 but never got named the 4th time?

You need to be named to play on game day and run out and start.

If say Hayne is named at centre on TLT and then plays FB he doesn't get the DPP week for that.

wolfking wrote:Bellamy saying that Brandon Smith will travel with the squad and 'he's been knocking on the door for several weeks.'

WTF?!

Can play a little bit of lock I hear as he tackles like a demon and hits pretty hard. Might not affect Smith playing 80.

Warriors wrote:

Can play a little bit of lock I hear as he tackles like a demon and hits pretty hard. Might not affect Smith playing 80.

interesting

"He's tough, a tough kid," Bellamy said.

"He is playing really well at the Sunshine Coast. He is a dummy half first, but he can play in the ruck as well.

"We have had players here over the years like Ryan Hinchcliffe or Nathan Friend who come here as dummy halves, but the dummy half we have [Cameron Smith] plays long minutes and a lot of games so they fit into other positions.

"We think Brandon is in a Hinchy-type mould, there are good signs so far and he puts a whole heap of effort in."

I didn't think it would affect Smith this week, but has me uneasy over the Origin period.

Spectre wrote:If you could only pick 2 to bring in next week, who would you choose?

Graham
Gallen
Brown

Or get all 3 meaning I lose both McGuire and Fifita

I would probably lock in Graham, keeper with good byes. Done.

Next, you would watch Brown and ask yourself will he score the same or better than Gallen for 60K less across rounds 12, 13, 14 and 15 than Gallen would in one less game.
If I had to choose two for the byes it would be Graham and Brown. You can always upgrade a Whitehead to Gallen after round 13 if you need him for round 15 and the run home.

For what it's worth, there's a shit ton of rain around in Perth today and this weekend. So the Rabbits/Storm game will most likely be on a wet track.

I'm going to pull the trigger on Kaufusi to Graham. I was going to hold off on it but I feel I might save a little bit of money not doing it this week I also miss out on potential points.

I'm ready for my week to fall apart, Had Gallen and T'Lolo last night so I'm off to a great start but we know there's twists and turns coming.

On another note, Surgess and T'Lolo were so so close to getting the top banner in back to back weeks.

If only this Brandon Smith fellow had HOK/2RF DPP. I mean I don't know who I could trade for him. Only players I can offload in the forwards is Leota or Sele AKA wasted trades. Geez the forwards have been pretty shit for bottom priced cashies this year.
Yates, Stone and maybe Stimson now are the only ones off the top of my head that I think have made any decent money.

Johnny B Goode wrote:If only this Brandon Smith fellow had HOK/2RF DPP. I mean I don't know who I could trade for him. Only players I can offload in the forwards is Leota or Sele AKA wasted trades. Geez the forwards have been pretty shit for bottom priced cashies this year.  
Yates, Stone and maybe Stimson now are the only ones off the top of my head that I think have made any decent money.  

Yates, stone, Ese ese and Adam Elliot. You would be lucky to have picked more than two of these. I only had 1. I guess CHN doesn't really count.

Spectre wrote:I don't wanna make the wrong choice, so maybe I will pick up all 3

Ok, so I've done some rough maths estimates as to the what each of those five players can be expected to score you over the bye rounds. To do this I made the following assumptions:

Each player will score their current 5 round average each week. Those averages, rounded up, are:
Fifita: 64          McGuire: 52                Gallen: 61                Brown: 55                Graham: 60
(For Graham I've recalculated his 5 round average to disregard his concussion affected 9)

For each major bye round, you will have less than 17 playing players. This means that there is no opportunity cost for fielding a player during those rounds.

For each minor bye round (for the sake of simplicity, including 19), you will have more than 17 players. Therefore, playing one of these players comes at the opportunity cost of holding another player on the bench as an NPR. For simplicity's sake, I'll assume that player would have scored 25 points, and therefore the net points a player will score you that week is equal to (5weekaverage - 25). I've used the same number for the non-bye rounds.

I've then added all the points each of the five players can be expected to score you over Round 12-19 by adding their net-points together.

Fifita = 0+0+39+0+39+39+0+39
       = 156 points

McGuire = 0+27+27+0+27+27+0+27
           = 162 points

Gallen = 61+0+36+61+36+36+0+36
         = 266 points

Brown = 55+30+30+55+0+30+55+0
         = 255 points

Graham = 60+35+35+0+35+35+60+0
           = 260 points

Conclusions: Players with favourable byes significantly outscore those playing Origin. Gallen and Graham should both marginally outscore Brown if they can maintain their higher averages. Sell McGuire before Fifita, as Fifita should match McGuire over the bye period and keeping him saves a trade getting him back in later.

Obviously I've made some simplistic assumptions here, and your team set up may be different and thus you'll get different results. I've also overlooked the effect of backing up from Origin, with players possibly playing less minutes or getting rested. I cannot account for random variables such as player injuries or suspensions.

Looking at this, I actually think it's better to get Gallen over Brown. Although I'd probably offload both Fifita and McGuire and pick up all three.

EDIT: Actually did this wrong. Was giving players 25 points in their non-major bye rounds to attempt to account for having an NPR to cover them, but there isn't any reason to do this. Have now given them a zero for those rounds. Conclusions basically the same.

Johnny B Goode wrote:Geez the forwards have been pretty shit for bottom priced cashies this year.  
Yates, Stone and maybe Stimson now are the only ones off the top of my head that I think have made any decent money.  

Yeah for sure. pretty happy with my pre season decision to only go in with one actual cheapie (Yates) in the FRF/2RF. Moeroa didn't work, but he became Musgrove who has been a bit of a dud compared to expectations, though he's been useful at times. Sironen did the job required too.

GreenMachine wrote:

filthridden wrote:

Sorry to hear you've been doing it tough mate, we're always here for you and I hope things pick up for you in summer!

Yeah really sorry to hear Welshy mate. Plenty of shoulders and ears for you here mate.

Chris Cornell might have meant something to a lot of us in our lives, but lads on here like yourself... we actually chat with/to every day so sorry to hear it pal

Take care

This. I'm just gonna come out and say it, I love you guys and girls .

But not in the way Stew loves both guys and girls during the bi rounds...

White Lightning wrote:@ Code Delta. What are you doing with Norman & T-Trbo & if you are trading them out then who are you buying. Cheers mate.

T-Turbo is now Crocker. Other trade this week was Faaufusi to Kapow.
I'll play Niko and trade Norman to CWalker next week.

code delta wrote:

T-Turbo is now Crocker. Other trade this week was Faaufusi to Kapow.
I'll play Niko and trade Norman to CWalker next week.

This is almost what I did and looking at next week, except instead I've kept Kaufusi and went Idris to Fui for the cash and extra player next week.  Not sure if that's smart with Kaufusi sitting as a NPR just for this week, but I guess I could get rid of Kaufusi this week and get Fui next week and the money gained and loss should almost even out anyway.  Hmm....

wolfking wrote:

Pretty much.  He knocked back the Broncos offer to stay at Souths and now even though he's signed a 3 year deal he wants more money now.  The potential Gagai signing is obviously the fuel behind it all.

Apparently they told Walker his contract upgrade would be 1st priority when they had the money but now their 1st priority seems to be Gagai & the money is now being used on Gagai & Walker got pissed off.

White Lightning wrote:

Apparently they told Walker his contract upgrade would be 1st priority when they had the money but now their 1st priority seems to be Gagai & the money is now being used on Gagai & Walker got pissed off.

Yeah, I read that too, but did Cody and his manager just take them on their word? Bit silly if they did. I would assume that could have put some sort of clause in the contract in regards to this.

@ Vanish. Thanks mate. That's a great post.

wolfking wrote:

Yeah, I read that too, but did Cody and his manager just take them on their word?  Bit silly if they did.  I would assume that could have put some sort of clause in the contract in regards to this.

What I can't believe is that he knocked back a 600k offer from the Broncos to stay at Souths.

Frol wrote:ATTENTION - CAPTAIN LOOPHOLE STILL SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE!!

So, with the VC on Lolo last night I was interested to see if the old captain switcheroo is still possible with current captain CS9.

I know there's no 'S' to substitute, but here's the trick;

On PC when you scroll over a player's card on the field display, the arrow changes to a 4 way arrow, if you click and drag on your current captain and place the card on top the player you want to switch with - it works! After the switch it changed the league match up. Now, whether that sticks till the end I'm not sure.

To be clear, this was for interest only, and my captain will remain CS9 this week but I'd be interested to know if it sticks after final scores are recorded, as it may be very handy come bye rounds if it works.

Anyone willing to give it a go to see if it works?

I posted it works on PC in a previous thread. I did it last year by dragging and dropping. Why does no one believe me?