2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

Milchcow wrote:

In 2017 he averaged 45 at lock.
In 2016 he averaged 35 at lock , which is what he is priced at.

Played similar minutes both years. 

Will he sustain 2017 form or will he revert back to his normal average?

Will be interesting to see if Lui and SST share mins at lock or if one shifts into the front row rotation

I am thinking of going back to Kane Evans !
I know a lot of people here had him to start with but got scared off him because 1 or 2 people here poo poo'd him because of uncertainty about minutes and his errors.

My reasons;

1. He went to the Eels looking for more minutes. This shows intent,
2. In the last 2 years Mannah has averaged 40 minutes or less per game. So, starting or not, I expect Evans to get at least 40 minutes a game,
3. PPM -  in 2015 Evans was scoring at 1.13 ppm and 2016 0.95 ppm which is pretty impressive. If he gets 40 plus minutes a game he should score 35 to 40 which is not bad for a player priced at 22,
4. I am prepared to believe that his error rate was due to trying too hard to impress the coach due to low minutes.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents worth !!

I got the stats from http://www.nrlfantasystats.com/

No Worries wrote:

The 15's were for the Tiger, the 64 for the Eel's.

The Badger's comment about the back end being better supports this.

What's his Eel's average ?

Averaged 32 for Tigers and 36 for Eels

Eels average can be split into 33 (when Gutherson was kicking) and 39 (when Moses was kicking)

He never scored as low as 15 for the Eels, but he did get a 16, an 18, and 19 twice
Scored 60+ twice for the Eels

And for those that care, his world cup scores
57 vs France
49 vs England
33 vs Australia
57 vs Tonga

Honey Badger wrote:

Will be interesting to see if Lui and SST share mins at lock or if one shifts into the front row rotation

In 14 games together last year, SST and Liu split time with each other only 3 times (Rd7, Rd 14 and finals week 1)

In 2016 they shared time only once  (SST played about half his games in the back row that year)


Most weeks they spent at least some time on the field together, and I assume that will continue into 2018.

The main question in my mind is whether Liu's rise in fantasy output last year will continue or not

Howie88 wrote:I could swap Moses for Kodi Nikorima (DPP) but unsure if he will get the kick meters, or go the other way and go Connor Watson and free up 100k, but unsure on Watson as I see pierce be extremely dominant and picking up all the fantasy points

The exact question I've been considering (apart from the Moses part, staying well away from that...). I currently have Nikorima in my reserves, and based on last year he is priced about 8 points below his average when playing at half (~45 or so), so in that case I think he's good value. Kick meters looked to be shared pretty evenly between him and milf, with milf getting a bit more.

Connor Watson, for 150k less, looks like he will have a similar output (averaging around 42 when you remove his interchange games). Pretty much zero kick meters (and I don't see that going up), but there's the risk of Brock Lamb (who I'm a massive fan of) taking some game time (or starts?) off Watson....

That $150k would help me get Fifita in the front row.... hmmmm. I think I have convinced myself, though I don't like moving from a POD (Nikorima) to one of the most popular players in Watson....

This is what I'm running with now. Evans being priced at 22 should hopefully makes some cash.

Cook
Fifita (C), Bromwich
Brown (VC), Murray, Arrow
Croft, Cartwright
Milne, Hiku
Tedesco, Ponga, Inglis

Lichaa, Watson, Lodge, Evans

Havilii/Garvey, Croker, Leilua, Kikau or any other cheapies.

Leaves around 119k in the bank.

Might chuck 'em all in yet, Arrow, NAS, Lui, RFM, Evans, could be gold if they all come off.

I'm personally skipping Evans, he's awkwardly priced and I don't rate him enough to consider him must-have. Am I just biased/bitter/jaded because he was so incredibly disappointing in 2016 when he was supposed to kill it with his PPM and Cordner/JWH out? I felt like I was dragging his useless corpse around for the entire season

How do people see the 'tiers' in pricing? in terms of Mid range, Gun etc.

I know its semantics, because point scoring potential is more important. Looking over my team I feel it is just too average, too many in the 350-580k mark.

"Melbourne have been training five-eighth Ryley Jacks at hooker during the pre-season.

The 25-year-old spent the final 20 minutes of the Storms trial against Newcastle slotting into the No.9 position in a sign that Craig Bellamy could be set to use Jacks in a utility style role thus season. Cameron Smith’s back-up hooker Brandon Smith has been training at rake and lock."

Do we think this could impact Smiths Minutes? if Smith goes from being an 80 min hooker, is he worth his 917k?

Enchanted Glossy Flamingo wrote:I'm personally skipping Evans, he's awkwardly priced and I don't rate him enough to consider him must-have. Am I just biased/bitter/jaded because he was so incredibly disappointing in 2016 when he was supposed to kill it with his PPM and Cordner/JWH out? I felt like I was dragging his useless corpse around for the entire season

I know how you feel mate, I was in the same boat, he was very average. If he starts over Alvaro obviously the coach sees something in him and he might be worth it. If he does stay on the bench, I'll probably avoid.

Howie88 wrote:"Melbourne have been training five-eighth Ryley Jacks at hooker during the pre-season.

The 25-year-old spent the final 20 minutes of the Storms trial against Newcastle slotting into the No.9 position in a sign that Craig Bellamy could be set to use Jacks in a utility style role thus season. Cameron Smith’s back-up hooker Brandon Smith has been training at rake and lock."

Do we think this could impact Smiths Minutes? if Smith goes from being an 80 min hooker, is he worth his 917k?

If Smith doesn't play 80, no it's not worth it IMO and might have to run without him, but it's hard to see him not playing a full game. Maybe looks like Croft might be locked into halfback then,

Howie88 wrote:"Melbourne have been training five-eighth Ryley Jacks at hooker during the pre-season.

The 25-year-old spent the final 20 minutes of the Storms trial against Newcastle slotting into the No.9 position in a sign that Craig Bellamy could be set to use Jacks in a utility style role thus season. Cameron Smith’s back-up hooker Brandon Smith has been training at rake and lock."

Do we think this could impact Smiths Minutes? if Smith goes from being an 80 min hooker, is he worth his 917k?

This would all be planning for origin, injury cover etc. 

Smith will play 80 pretty much every week.

Storm used Slade Griffin as a bench utility last year, and only once did he sub on for Smith (in rd 25 when Smith got a rest after 58 minutes because Melbourne were flogging Souths by 60)

bluetige wrote:Some answers to the makeup of Titans forward pack for round 1.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/titans/jai-arrow-guaranteed-place-in-titans-round-one-team-despite-arrival-of-bryce-cartwright/news-story/523012b8d1a5285b0992894c1ad312a9

“He’s trained the house down, he’s done everything right."

He is in my team no matter what.

Same fears re smith every pre season..

Milchcow wrote:

Howie88 wrote:I could swap Moses for Kodi Nikorima (DPP) but unsure if he will get the kick meters, or go the other way and go Connor Watson and free up 100k, but unsure on Watson as I see pierce be extremely dominant and picking up all the fantasy points

Most of Watson's NRL starts at five-eighth have been with Pearce at halfback, and he averages a respectable 40 points in these cases.

In which case Watson should comfortably make $150k+ this year. It was around $150k you would want from mid-range cashies at least last year, not sure about this year.

my tv broke wrote:Same fears re smith every pre season..

Gut call this season for me is Smith isn't worth the price tag. Limited pre-season due to world cup and emergence of Brandon Smith says to me if Storm are ahead by 13+ with 15 to go Smith takes a breather. With the nice early draw this could happen 4 times in the first 6 rounds, Tigers twice and Bulldogs + Knights. Key word is could, but just my opinion. I will be captaining Teddy first round vs Tigers and will be happy with 50+, but he could bang out a 100 if he jags a double. He will be up for it.

If you weren't running with Smith, would you go with McCullough or McInnes?

Or go Cook, Lichaa combo and use the cash to have a gun in a different position?

Howie88 wrote:If you weren't running with Smith, would you go with McCullough or McInnes?

Or go Cook, Lichaa combo and use the cash to have a gun in a different position?

Doesn't matter too much who your hookers are if you don't run Smith, lots of options look good value this year.

Main thing if you go without Smith is having a captain that can crack 60 with some reliability. Fifita, Mannering, someone like that. 

I don't think Tedesco is a reliable captain option. Certainly not without someone reliable to fallback on.

Warriors wrote:

Gut call this season for me is Smith isn't worth the price tag. Limited pre-season due to world cup and emergence of Brandon Smith says to me if Storm are ahead by 13+ with 15 to go Smith takes a breather. With the nice early draw this could happen 4 times in the first 6 rounds, Tigers twice and Bulldogs + Knights. Key word is could, but just my opinion. I will be captaining Teddy first round vs Tigers and will be happy with 50+, but he could bang out a 100 if he jags a double. He will be up for it.

Smith will be playing as he always has, maybe he might have a spell if they are destroying a team but there is no way he will only play 60 mins, every coach that works with him has always stated that they would dare not take smith off or give him a rest game. They have a halves combo that will rely heavily on him. I believe regret will folllow soon after leaving him out of your team this year ...IMO