The Betting Thread

OMG - BETTORS DREAM!! It feels like this usually this works against you but did anyone see the end of the KC v Washington game?

I had KC -6.5, can't believe my luck

Rippin and Tearin wrote:OMG - BETTORS DREAM!! It feels like this usually this works against you but did anyone see the end of the KC v Washington game?

I had KC -6.5, can't believe my luck

That's absolutely mental! Awesome feeling

I had them to win live bet $2.20 when they were 10-0 down.

I've also got $50 on them to take out the Superbowl

Well I needed KC's kicker to bang one more FG over for a h2h win in our Nfl fantasy league !

Worth a shot R&T. Not many of the divisions are a closed shop, if the Bills play it out like they are at the moment they will go close. And my team Green Bay as u said dont look like they have enough across the oark after Rodgers.

KC my preseason pick as well for the Bowl.

Honeysett wrote:

That's absolutely mental! Awesome feeling

I had them to win live bet $2.20 when they were 10-0 down.

I've also got $50 on them to take out the Superbowl

Nice.

I have to say I feel like KC got pretty lucky in that game. Im not sure they win if it weren't for the numerous injuries to the Washing D, the least of which Norman, who I understand now is likely out a few games.

BUT hey, you take the goods with the bads don't ya!!

I've not got a team to win yet but with some of the winnings from yesterday I'm taking the following who are all overvalued on the NZTAB compared to the US bookies (one of my betting criterion on US bets):

Superbowl Winner:
Steelers @ $10
KC @ $10
Houston @ $31

AFC:
Steelers @ $5.5
KC @ $5.5
Houston @ $17

NFC:
Rams @ $21

By the way, what did you guys get on KC pre-season?

All right guys, time for this weeks Rugby. As always its bloody hard to get a good read on things until teams are named, but perhaps that's where the value lies - seems to be working so far anyway.

But first here's a trend worth noting:

Since week 3 (5 rounds so far) there have been 10 teams who have played Wednesday night and then had a short turn around to a Sunday game that same week. Of those 10 games only 1 team (who played on Wednesday) has gone on to win on Sunday, and that was Counties who beat the bottom placed HB.

Included in those other games was:
Canterbury's shock thrashing at the hands of Wellington (that paid $7.5 for 13+ and $36 for 29+)
North Harbour's Thrashing of Auckland (by 47 points)

So I'd take a close look at the odds on Auckland over Tasman this Sunday as well as Waikato (points start) over North Harbour although I note that North Harbour have rested several players for tonights game presumably in preparation for Sunday. Odds not yet up for either of those two though.

For the games that are up I like:
Tasman tonight - need to get on fast as the line is drifting: Tasman -3.5 Both teams with a lot of changes but Im liking Tasman here as I think they actually went pretty well last week v Taranaki playing most of the game with 14 players (or less). North Harbour seem to be going into this game with an eye to Sunday, resting a number of their players including captain Parsons and both inside backs. Id bebig here but for some injuries to Tasman too, so medium stakes.

Counties +6.5 over Manawatu I like Counties to at least keep this one close. I'll wait for the team naming here, but perhaps even H2H Counties could be the bet. Just need to make sure key guys like Pulu, TNW, Manu and Kerr and to a lesser extent Royal, Lokatui, Tupou. If these guys are named I think Counties medium stakes looking good.

Canterbury 13+ - don't really need to say much with this one. Canterbury RS matches have had the following margins this year: 6, 58, 73, & 20. Taranaki is the best side Canterbury will face this year at home, but I saw cracks in their game last week and I think Canterbury 13+ is solid. High stakes as these odds will shorten!

Outside of those three nothing really appeals at this stage although team naming will change things and as I mention above I am quite keen on Auckland to upset Tasman on Sunday.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:By the way, what did you guys get on KC pre-season?

I got them @ 11

My pre season tip was Steelers but I don't like their chances

Anyone on Tasman with me tonight? Looking good so far, they've put 21 points on them within 19 minutes!!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Anyone on Tasman with me tonight? Looking good so far, they've put 21 points on them within 19 minutes!!

Yeah mate. I only did $5 at -6.5 looking alright

Mighty Fishes wrote:

Yeah mate. I only did $5 at -6.5 looking alright

Just aye!! Tasman win by 7!

Nice start to the Rugby week!

By the way lads, for anyone following me, Counties have named their team and all the fullahs I posted earlier that are key to this team going well have been named, with the exception of Kerr who is on the bench with ex AB Donald to start. Not a biggie IMO.

Im gonna wait a little bit to see which direction this line moves in to see if I can eek out any more value but at this stage Coutnies is the play. Either H2H (currently at $2) or play it safe and take one of the handicaps on offer e.g. +6.5 @ $1.52).

Was pretty nervous hahaha. I think i'll have a small punt on Counties. That'll only be the 4.50 I won from the Tasman line bet.

Cheers for all the input you put in for this R&T. I know only a few post in here but I'm sure more take your tips so thanks mate!

Mighty Fishes wrote:Was pretty nervous hahaha. I think i'll have a small punt on Counties. That'll only be the 4.50 I won from the Tasman line bet.

Cheers for all the input you put in for this R&T. I know only a few post in here but I'm sure more take your tips so thanks mate!

Couldn't agree more MF! Imagine how busy and lucrative this forum would be if all the "experts" posted well before the fact like R&T, instead of afterwards haha.

You are on fire R&T! Not only do you post your tips well in advance, but you do so with more than enough detail for us to know exactly which ones you are on the fence about, and which you are more than confident about.

You seem to have the Mitre10 Cup rugby on point mate! Keep up the great work

Mighty Fishes wrote:Was pretty nervous hahaha. I think i'll have a small punt on Counties. That'll only be the 4.50 I won from the Tasman line bet.

Cheers for all the input you put in for this R&T. I know only a few post in here but I'm sure more take your tips so thanks mate!

Yeah I'm another that has been following R&T and whether he is right or wrong (mainly right) I have really appreciated his (pre-match) analysis.

Certainly not at the point where I am able to quit my job and retire on the winnings just yet......but something I have enjoyed is watching these Mitre 10 Cup games, even if I haven't got any bets going.

It's not a comp I've ever really followed with any great interest prior to R&T showing us the light; but as one of many (I assume) that has lost total interest in the Super Rugby games due to the horrific format and shambolic operation of that comp, to watch what is some bloody high quality Rugby has been really enjoyable.

Cheers lads, appreciate the comments!

A couple small 'bit of fun' bets for tonight.

In the score first/total/points start options:

take Counties/under 58.5/manawatu -1.5 @$8
and Manawatu/under58.5/Counties +1.5 @$8

First of all I think chances are the total goes under tonight. Of the combined 15 games these two teams have played 10 have gone under 58.5. Add to that its a night game.

2nd, its a close game, so while in some cases one team scoring first and the other covering the spread deserves to be long odds, in this case id doesn't.

So the value is there on this option. But you've gotta have a bit of luck so its just a small fun play I see with a bit of value.

Lines not moving on the H2H or points start so probably best just to get on if you are keen to follow me on this one.

Main bet for me this game will be Counties +6.5

Ive already given R&T and the Mitre 10 cup my thumbs up aeons ago. Almost as good as apple pie.

On a seperate note, something I have wanted to know and found it hard to work out as there is no written policy/rules on it that I know of. That is how the 'cashout' works in terms of odds and offers. It is on the whole, disappointing. Example below -

Multi of three legs totalling odds of $7.01
Banes 2sets to love in tennis at $1.70 - gets up.
Over 9.5 runs @ $2.50 in MLB game involving Arizona - gets up.
Last leg is Dolgopolov ($1.65) to beat Johnson in tennis about to start now.

Now if you calculate the odds of the two legs that have already won it is about $4.25 yet the cashout offer equals odds of $3.68 !
I thought the point of a cashout was incentive to do so after certain legs are successful or mid stream games in limbo etc. In the above scenario im better off having the two leg multi and starting afresh.
Add to that one was a solid $2.50, I thought cashout offers in this scenario would be inbetween the final odds of the multi and where u are mid multi.

Im letting it ride !

Hey mate,

I agree the odds of a cash out are disappointing, but the cash-out odds are always going to be less than where you are currently at, otherwise people would always place multis and cash out once 1 leg came in and get themselves juicier odds than what they otherwise would have got for a single.

The reality is 'cash-outs' are simply another tool through which the bookies make money (on average) and statistically are not worth doing. They just play on the fact that the more legs come in on any given multi the more the punter feels they stand to lose, hence risk averse people will cop the decrease in effective odds to guarantee themselves money.

In an ideal world the punter would look ahead to the hypothetical point where 2 out of 3 legs have come in and realise they would actually rather the money. Hence they would can the 3 leg multi and just go with the 2 leg one.

Does all that make sense?

In fact, in my time betting and looking at the value of a cash out the better option is always hedge (bet on whoever is playing Dolgopolov vs the cash-out option. The effective return from a hedge will be > than that of the cash-out.

Revraiser wrote:Ive already given R&T and the Mitre 10 cup my thumbs up aeons ago. Almost as good as apple pie.

On a seperate note, something I have wanted to know and found it hard to work out as there is no written policy/rules on it that I know of. That is how the 'cashout' works in terms of odds and offers. It is on the whole, disappointing. Example below -

Multi of three legs totalling odds of $7.01
Banes 2sets to love in tennis at $1.70 - gets up.
Over 9.5 runs @ $2.50 in MLB game involving Arizona - gets up.
Last leg is Dolgopolov ($1.65) to beat Johnson in tennis about to start now.

Now if you calculate the odds of the two legs that have already won it is about $4.25 yet the cashout offer equals odds of $3.68 !  
I thought the point of a cashout was incentive to do so after certain legs are successful or mid stream games in limbo etc. In the above scenario im better off having the two leg multi and starting afresh.
Add to that one was a solid $2.50, I thought cashout offers in this scenario would be inbetween the final odds of the multi and where u are mid multi.

Im letting it ride !  

I've only cashed out once and it was because I didn't have time to hedge.

In your example above and with a two outcome last leg and already being on the shortest odds, surely hedging would be a better option?

Edit: R&T beat me to it.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:In fact, in my time betting and looking at the value of a cash out the better option is always hedge (bet on whoever is playing Dolgopolov vs the cash-out option. The effective return from a hedge will be > than that of the cash-out.

Being a bit of a maths/engineering nerd, I normally knock up a quick spreadsheet so I can do a makeshift options analysis and work out hedge vs let it ride vs cashout and the optimal amount I want to hedge with.....never has cashout been the best option.

And just for anyone interested I cashed out when he was down a set and a break in the 2nd set and was abke to get 60% of the stake. Surprised at that. Doesnt make up for my earlier complaint as to me cashing out for a stake percentage is not very likely.