The Betting Thread

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Teams named for Auckland v Canterbury. Canterbury-10.5 the play. All ABs OUT for Auckland while Canterbury get their captain back. Get on now while the TAB are yet to update.

Edit, that line has actually come in so -10.5 on offer now , my bad.

I have some money on 13+ still confident for me?

Mighty Fishes wrote:

I have some money on 13+ still confident for me?

In short I'd rather be on Cant 13+ than Auck +13.5

BUT, Im far less confident than I was. Unfortunately I heard the team naming while driving via the sports news. What I posted above was what the bulletin said. What they didn't say was Canterbury have made a number of changes, I assume resting some first stringers.

Im just not sure how this one plays out now.

Fingers Crossed I guess!!

I have Cant -12.5 and think I may have stretched it a little too far. Also notice BOP have come into favourites

5 fold NFL acca for the weekend

Pats -9.5
Packers -3
Bucs -1
Chiefs -4
Raiders -3.5

Canterbury loss was a bit disappointing. Depending on the line you took, they were actually covering with only a few minutes to go. Then a Canterbury charge down saw the ball fall kindly for Auckland who then went on to score and the bet was lost.

As for BOP, I has hoped for better odds on Waikato. Its probably a stay away game. Both teams a lot to play for; BOP a home semi, Waikato to stave off relegation.

Awful weekend on the punt. I think I'm going to give myself a break

Mighty Fishes wrote:Awful weekend on the punt. I think I'm going to give myself a break

I broke even.

Was a funny weekend of Rugby the least of which were the two games that got tipped on their heads when red cards got dished out seemingly galvanising the teams who lost players who then went on to win and win well.

Big learning for me in this round was take the overs in games where teams are playing for nothing:
Taranaki v Harbour combined for 97
Manawatu HB combined for 67
Counties Tasman combined for 82

I think Im done for a bit too.

I have Canterbury at just under evens and Taranaki at $4.25 to ride out the premiership with - I think that will cash.

I also have a long shot of Canterbury/Otago double (placed pre-season) but that would take some incredible luck - might be something I can hedge on later though.

Mostly Im sitting back now and watching the NFL and MLB unfold to see if any of my season bets will come through!

What a nail biter a double was i took, Bears into Chargers ! Didnt post it as my posted bets lose lol

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Also, for value betters, and those with access to the NZ Tab. The dumb bastards there are again miles behind the times.

NYY @ $8 to win the AL is crazy value. They are more like half that on most bookies after making several big moves before the trade deadline. KC @ $26 is also fantastic value.

Hey guys, Just in case anyone followed me on this one @ $8 for the conference - or took the Yankees to win the whole thing @ $15.

First, yeah, $8 was a bloody steel, but still a win away so perhaps its worth hedging. Houston could easily win the next two so at the very least (odds depending) I'll be hedging to guarantee a small return.

Fuck you Dallas.

Last leg of the multi ended up looking like Haywards.

They were the shortest odds I had as well.

Valencia tonight in the La Liga look specials. Kicks iff soon though. Im taking Valencia to score 3+ goals @ $3.50

Canterbury saluted today for R&T. WD lad

I won pretty much fuck all on Winx, is that the horse's name ?? But got a bonus bet.

Waiting for @Moose to tell me how he bought a new house on the winnings

No Worries wrote:I won pretty  much fuck all on Winx, is that the horse's name ?? But got a bonus bet.

Waiting for @Moose  to tell me how he bought a new house on the winnings  

I have been looking at property in Nicaragua.

Sounds like your wife isn't paying you much attention at home. Might be time you save some of your winnings for a down payment on a new place.

I did get a nice return on Lebanon 1-12 @ $3.30.

You might me right should look into Beirut property prices.

No Worries wrote:I did get a nice return on Lebanon 1-12 @ $3.30.

You might me right should look into Beirut property prices.

I started the weekend with $62.51 placed several bets over the weekend and this morning I have $63.78 in my account. So without bragging too much I cleaned up!

Revraiser wrote:Valencia tonight in the La Liga look specials. Kicks iff soon though. Im taking Valencia to score 3+ goals @ $3.50

Canterbury saluted today for R&T. WD lad

Thanks mate, yeah good payout in the end as I'd pretty much been betting on them to win the title each week I made a profit.

So with the ITM cup done, the Super Rugby Squads have just been announced and I reckon it's pretty clear who to bet on this year:

Rules of Super Rugby Betting as it stands:

1) never bet on a SA team unless it's a full strength LIONs team
2) never bet on an OZ team
3) Never bet on the Blues.

So basically that boils down to 4 teams worth having a look at:

Highlanders - new coach, a very good guy, chatted with him a bit a couple weeks back and was very impressed. They've brought in several new players, BUT, while I think they will make the playoffs and be good to bet on during the year, I don't think they can win it.

Chiefs - in short, they have lost way too many key players: TKB and Cruden he main ones, but also Lowe, Leith and a couple others. I don't think they have filled those holes well enough, so I put them in a similar boat to the Highlanders in that they may be good to bet on, on a game-by-game basis, but they won't win the title and may not even make the playoffs this year.

Hurricanes - Basically the same core group of players as last year but with improvement. I think they are a very good shot at winning the title this year - waiting for the odds to come out but I'll likely be on them to win.

Crusaders - AS with the Canes, same core group + improvements. They will be the favourites I suspect but worth every Penny.

If I can back the Canes and Crusaders to win and effectively get odds of $2 if either win I'll be a happy man. I think the key is to take both though to cover for injuries, and be sensible about the timing with which you add to those bets as the season progresses. These teams will likely lose a few games during the season as they have tough draws playing NZ team regularly and inevitably rest and rotate which may result in unexpected losses. Back them heavily when these losses eventuate as that is when you will find value but trust that at the business end of the season these two teams will get the job done!

Odds are out in NZ and both the Crusaders and Hurricanes are paying $4.5.

Im gonna start by putting 6 units Canterbury and 4 Canes as I think $4.5 is overs for the Crusaders.

That gives 2.7 x money invested if Crusaders win & 1.8 x if Hurricanes win.

That feels about right to me. I seriously don't see another contender for this trophy outside of these two and the Lions. So I'll take my chances with this. Feels like a strong bet to me.

At any stage in the season you can get either of these two teams at over $4.5 load up I reckon!

Have been on Who Shot TheBarman the last couple of years.  I'll be throwing something decent on the place at $16.  Has got to be one of the best roughie chances I can remember.

Watching all 3 of his Cup runs again shows how good he is.  3rd in 2014; got stopped in his tracks in 2015 when in with a chance; came flying home from dead last last year for 5th from barrier 20.

Same barrier and likes circling the field anyway so I was actually happy he drew wide to blow his price out.  Got something small on him a few weeks ago at $67 before his MV Cup win, he then halved his price.  Barrier draw has him back out to that    

Obviously needs some luck at the jump and make history being a 9 year old, but I don't actually need him to win at those place odds!

Part time punter nowadays, so who are we on lads?

SCRATCHED! Glad my early All In was only $40.

SI wrote:

Part time punter nowadays, so who are we on lads?

Can you let us know what you'll be on so we avoid

Winks wins the Cox Plate in race record time so I'll be on the horse that was half a length away from her.
Also a small bet on Cismontane at odds.