2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 17

L-Jimmy wrote:Someone (forget who) said in a previous thread that they'll stick with Lichaa until after round 3, as the Doggies going 0-2 may spark some changes.

I think that's sensible, particularly as Lichaa won't be losing much cash in the meantime.

Yeah that has been my advice. If they go 0 and 3 you'd think they have to change something; here's hoping anyway.

Bulldogs are so boring to watch, this years Dragons I think. I'm tipping them for the spoon, they had quite a few sets in a row and just had nothing in attack, especially down the right hand side, ironically they scored there. On the left they seem to just short ball someone, on the right they are clueless.


Can't see Lichaa getting many attacking stats if that's what people are hoping for?

Shooter McGavin wrote:Sorry if already thoroughly discussed. I got Moses, Croft, Lichaa and Rochow who are probably my worst performers in my 21. Who are the most urgent trade outs?

My thoughts are;
Moses gets a kick up the arse and maybe plays well and doesn't get binned hopefully
Lichaa shouldn't drop too much in price this week so maybe hold and hope he plays bigger minutes
Surely storm come out guns blazing after a Bellamy roast and maybe Croft goes big
Rochow had abysmal defence last week but was good in week 1 so tough to evaluate.

Any thoughts appreciated, Thanks Guys.

Keen to jump on -- Murray, TPG and cash isn't a big issue

All could come out and post 50's next week, and whoever you drop will 100%, haha.

If I had a gun to my head I think I'd probably do Rochow to Murray. I was Rochow's biggest talker upperer in the off season so it pains me to say that. However, he has the least job security in my opinion with Alaioi back on the bench and Sue in Ressies (as well as McQueen). So that is how I would split them in my mind-job security.

Week 2 Trades -
Croft -> Thompson
Lichaa -> Cook
111K ITB
Week 3 Trades -
Katoa -> Cow (Whoever looks good and can afford)

Finch wrote:Bulldogs are so boring to watch, this years Dragons I think. I'm tipping them for the spoon, they had quite a few sets in a row and just had nothing in attack, especially down the right hand side, ironically they scored there. On the left they seem to just short ball someone, on the right they are clueless.




Can't see Lichaa getting many attacking stats if that's what people are hoping for?

It would be a bonus Finchy. But 80 is the main hope.

StormTrooper96 wrote:With Crofts lack of form his BE gets higher and higher and price gets lower and lower. Hopefully he loses some more money over the coming weeks and hits some good form (the kid can really play, hence his previous scores) and when he hits the form, should be able to upgrade Croker or Doui to Crofty. Well that's my plan anyways.

I've seen this be mentioned a few times as I've read through the trade rage from the last 50 odd pages or so and wanted to add my thoughts.

Yeah Croft is likely going to lose some money this week (BE: 52) based on his current form of 22 points a game (about 30-40k). I'd download the awesome spreadsheet to check exactly but I'm at work and that won't go with the filter we have.

I don't like this plan as it commits you to doing the following:

1) trading him out
2) Waiting for a big game (timing dependent and likely to miss money on other cows)
3) Timing the trade to get him back in (this is easy enough - like murray you'll get one free look and then another mid price BE if you really want another look)
4) Eventually trading him out to a true gun for seasons end (the floor we have seen so far is too low to call a true keeper)

Note that you are using 3 trades and that's if it all goes to plan. At the start of the season he was priced at an average of 37 ish and now hes currently priced on an average of 34. I think people are too fixed on him losing money (that's already gone) and not evaluating the current situation in front of them. Nothing you can do now gets back the 50k + 30k ish he'll likely lose in the next week or two  but if you trust Croft to come good (45 avg with a big game somewhere for an extra rise) he's probably worth keeping as he's more than 10 points underpriced and you save at least 2 trades.

Hes a half and will have good fantasy games and bad ones (unfortunately the latter is all we have so far). I think its worth noting that he had a stack of negatives in the first game (7 missed tackles and 2 errors) and in the second game he had a heap too (4 missed tackles, 2 errors and a penalty conceded) as well as it being a high penalty game (more stoppages and less km). I know we can't remove the negatives (Maloney would be a great pickup) but if that comes in a little bit (which is reflected in his stats from last year) and he gets some more involvement (the tries and line breaks) which he has the talent to do he can still be a good pick.

Not specifically trying to call you out mate but more this line of thinking as I think people will be kicking themselves in a week or so burning trades we all will need for bye planning based on a 2 week sample. No problems if you have soured on Croft (I certainly have) but try looking at him on his current price of 509k (implies a 34 avg.) and where you think he will be in the next five to ten weeks and make a call on that rather than the fear of next weeks likely cash drop (Note: there's an awesome spreadsheet that will help you do this on the first post of this thread).

Personally I regret starting with him but I don't see any rush to trade him. I think he'll average around 38-40 in the coming weeks (next 5-10) and I can suffer a small immediate drop as I don't see any great longterm sideways or downgrade options to go to and this earn me 100k from here with no trades. If Doueihi had 6 weeks of job security I'd likely jump on that though (200k to be made and similar points).

SI wrote:

It would be a bonus Finchy. But 80 is the main hope.

Not much use playing 80 if you are going to be behind your goal posts for half the game watching the opposition converting tries

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

I've seen this be mentioned a few times as I've read through the trade rage from the last 50 odd pages or so and wanted to add my thoughts.

Yeah Croft is likely going to lose some money this week (BE: 52) based on his current form of 22 points a game (about 30-40k). I'd download the awesome spreadsheet to check exactly but I'm at work and that won't go with the filter we have.

I don't like this plan as it commits you to doing the following:

1) trading him out
2) Waiting for a big game (timing dependent and likely to miss money on other cows)
3) Timing the trade to get him back in (this is easy enough - like murray you'll get one free look and then another mid price BE if you really want another look)
4) Eventually trading him out to a true gun for seasons end (the floor we have seen so far is too low to call a true keeper)

Note that you are using 3 trades and that's if it all goes to plan. At the start of the season he was priced at an average of 37 ish and now hes currently priced on an average of 34. I think people are too fixed on him losing money (that's already gone) and not evaluating the current situation in front of them. Nothing you can do now gets back the 50k + 30k ish he'll likely lose in the next week or two  but if you trust Croft to come good (45 avg with a big game somewhere for an extra rise) he's probably worth keeping as he's more than 10 points underpriced and you save at least 2 trades.

Hes a half and will have good fantasy games and bad ones (unfortunately the latter is all we have so far). I think its worth noting that he had a stack of negatives in the first game (7 missed tackles and 2 errors) and in the second game he had a heap too (4 missed tackles, 2 errors and a penalty conceded) as well as it being a high penalty game (more stoppages and less km). I know we can't remove the negatives (Maloney would be a great pickup) but if that comes in a little bit (which is reflected in his stats from last year) and he gets some more involvement (the tries and line breaks) which he has the talent to do he can still be a good pick.

Not specifically trying to call you out mate but more this line of thinking as I think people will be kicking themselves in a week or so burning trades we all will need for bye planning based on a 2 week sample. No problems if you have soured on Croft (I certainly have) but try looking at him on his current price of 509k (implies a 34 avg.) and where you think he will be in the next five to ten weeks and make a call on that rather than the fear of next weeks likely cash drop (Note: there's an awesome spreadsheet that will help you do this on the first post of this thread).

Personally I regret starting with him but I don't see any rush to trade him. I think he'll average around 38-40 in the coming weeks (next 5-10) and I can suffer a small immediate drop as I don't see any great longterm sideways or downgrade options to go to and this earn me 100k from here with no trades. If Doueihi had 6 weeks of job security I'd likely jump on that though (200k to be made and similar points).

All valid points mate. Personally, I agree with you. I can see Bellyache giving him a big chat this week and he comes out firing against the cows and scores a 50-60 point game. I am still very very hesitant in trading him out but I feel like I need to get Cook in before he jumps any higher and i can do that with Lichaa but that leaves me -50K salary and I don't want to trade out anyone else at the moment (apart from Katoa but that's not enough to get me someone else). I am in a bit of a pickle

Someone erase the Debellin to Murray thoughts in my head pls... and be kind


If i go Debellin to murray, it in turn allows Croft to SJ = BOOM !

Random stat i saw on twitter. In yesterdays 54-0 flogging, it wasnt until the very last try of the game that an outside back scored. All other 8 tries were forwards (6) or the halves (2)

Revraiser wrote:Someone erase the Debellin to Murray thoughts in my head pls... and be kind ????

You'd have to be a real bellend to trade out Debellin.

Na but for real don't do it. We don't trade keepers.

Vanish wrote:
You'd have to be a real bellend to trade out Debellin.

Na but for real don't do it. We don't trade keepers.

There's that, the bellend theory. Its hard seeing his price tag and the shaky looking scoring. Its early to be even thinking it, just all related to getting in/on/with the required train.

Trading SST to Rochow might have been an error on my part. Lucky the Turbos, Cook and JT got me out of a hole and I got 787 but yeah, Rochow has me a bit worried as I cant really trade him to anyone decent with 99k in the bank.

An extremely well thought out Username @Cap'n Ranta

Jesus H Christ

I can trade Aubbs to TPJ, playing Kennar in my 17 and having no cover on the bench.
or I can trade Aubbs to Hiku with his BE of 0, Kennar remains backup

Surely the latter is the most sensible decision. It feels more like an investment, whereas the first options feels like a desperate quick cash money grab for next weeks points.

Anyone think otherwise?

Thoughts on downgrading Dufty to someone like Robinson/another cheapie, starting Thompson (alongside Ponga and Teddy) with the view of upgrading him later. Still leaving Kennar as cover.

Really think Dufty can fire this season, but 250-300k odd cash could fund a few upgrades in the coming weeks (Rochow....)

Revraiser wrote:

There's that, the bellend theory. Its hard seeing his price tag and the shaky looking scoring. Its early to be even thinking it, just all related to getting in/on/with the required train.

I can see the temptation, especially if the spare money lets you get in SJ. But JDB has a 51 average over two games. That's hardly terrible. I'd hold.

Can you do Croft > Murray?

Weiland wrote:Trading SST to Rochow might have been an error on my part. Lucky the Turbos, Cook and JT got me out of a hole and I got 787 but yeah, Rochow has me a bit worried as I cant really trade him to anyone decent with 99k in the bank.

Unless Rochow loses his starting spot he's a hold. His career average starting 2rf is in the 40s, which he hit week 1. This week was just a terrible error-ridden performance.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

All valid points mate. Personally, I agree with you. I can see Bellyache giving him a big chat this week and he comes out firing against the cows and scores a 50-60 point game. I am still very very hesitant in trading him out but I feel like I need to get Cook in before he jumps any higher and i can do that with Lichaa but that leaves me -50K salary and I don't want to trade out anyone else at the moment (apart from Katoa but that's not enough to get me someone else). I am in a bit of a pickle

Based on your latest posts it seems like you have 17k in the bank with the following crew.

CS9
Arrow Lodge
Jurbo Murray RFM
Croft DCE
Kennar Mitchell
Ponga Turbo Isaako

Lichaa TPJ Doui Carty
Kikau Havili Croker Katoa

Agree its hard to find the room for Cook who I agree you want now as he'll only get more expensive (BE:6) and is looking to be someone you want in a final 17. Can't really see another under performer for you so Croft might be the goer but don't worry too much about upgrading Katoa. Sooner or later a new cow will appear so don't be too stressed. Most of the guys you have now are the cheap guys <320k worth owning. Would definitely do the Katoa loophole until you find that cow. Currently it would let you pick between Isaako and Thompsons score if you went with the trades you originally suggested.

Currently going Croft - Munster and Rochow - Murray

But I don’t think I need to add another origin player when I’ve already got Smith, Fifita, Inglis, Tedesco

Croft will probably get another go this weekend and I’ll just do Nicholls - Murray